School: Oklahoma

Position: OT

Year: Junior

The Good: Harrison is an incredibly graceful mover for a dude who looks the part of an NFL left tackle at 315lbs with 34” arms. Harrison is natural at maximizing all of the length that he’s got, and he can get himself locked into any defender in a flash. Harrison is an incredibly efficient pass protector; he’s tough to run around or run through, and Oklahoma routinely left him on island to deal with opposing pass rushers in space by himself. Harrison has active hands too, so he’s good at neutralizing pass rushers before they even get into their moves. Harrison moves very well downfield; he’s already a lethal combo blocker who could excel in a zone blocking scheme. He’s not the biggest OT prospect but he has the right punishing mentality.

The Bad: I just wrote that Harrison isn’t the biggest OT prospect in regard to his ability to still finish, but conversely his lack of top size shows in his relative inability to move defenders against their will. To this point in Harrison’s career, defenders have been able to shed him more easily than you’d like to see for a potential Round 1 tackle; he needs to sustain better in the run game and develop a generally firmer grip. For Harrison to remain an elite pass blocker at the next level, I’d like to see him play with more consistent knee bend and work on removing wasted steps from the beginning of his sets.

The Bottom Line: Harrison is really good! I was pleasantly surprised watching his tape, given that he’s usually ranked around the OT5 or OT6 in this class. That might be near the range that he eventually settles for me too, but that has way more to do with the depth of this OT class than Harrison’s game. If someone chose to rank him as OT2, they’d receive no firm objection from me. For a kid who was born in 2002 (!!), Harrison has a lion’s share of experience under his belt, and the Big-12 has toughened up a ton compared to the conference it was even a half-decade ago. Still, Harrison will benefit from increased exposure to EDGEs who will hit him with more counters and rush moves, and Oklahoma’s offense did feature a lot of quick game without elongated pass reps. Normally I don’t like to compare prospects to players who only recently entered the league, but Harrison just reminds me too much of Charles Cross. I have the same grade on Harrison as I did on Cross one year ago, who had a somewhat rocky rookie season with the Seahawks but still definitely appears to be a promising young left tackle.

Grade: Late First Round / Early Second Round

Pro Comp: Charles Cross

Games Watched:

• Baylor 2021
• Nebraska 2022
• Kansas State 2022
• TCU 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Tennessee

Position: OT

Year: Senior

The Good: Wright is one of the bigger OT prospects in this Draft at 333lbs, and he’s also one of the most athletic. He put up great testing numbers in terms of both explosiveness and speed at the Combine, and his tape backs that up. Wright can erupt out of his stance and has a deceptive amount of burst, and he has full control over his gears between patience and explosion. Wright is a savvy pass protector with quick hands and smooth, deliberate feet in his sets. He has the skillset to match and mirror against any type of pass rusher, and Wright can also knock over any defender that he lands his hands on. He has brick wall strength and a finishing mentality.

The Bad: Wright’s stout build makes him nearly impossible to run through, but it also limits his bend and balance. A recurring issue for Wright on film is losing EDGEs at the arc of their rushes and tipping over from there. Wright certainly has the tools to account for speed around the corner, but that does leave him vulnerable to inside quickness. Wright is more of a fast than agile runner, which limits him in tight spaces and might render him more scheme-specific than other OTs. He’s further along as a pass blocker than run blocker too; Wright tends to punch more than sustain in the run game.

The Bottom Line: In an OT class with multiple peers of his ranked near the top based more on potential than production, Wright is as battle-tested as it gets. He made 42 starts at Tennessee and has already dealt with and overcome his fair share of adversity – Wright was essentially demoted as UT’s left tackle following the 2021 season. Wright also faced and excelled against competition that included Will Anderson, BJ Ojulari, and Calijah Kancey in the regular season, and then the likes of Will McDonald in the Senior Bowl. Wright is a former five-star recruit and excellent athlete in his own right too, and his proven combination of precision and power is rare for a college kid. He might not be cut out for every offense and he’s probably a RT only, but Wright’s arrow is pointing up at the right time and I’m right here contributing to his hype.

Grade: Mid First Round

Pro Comp: Jawaan Taylor

Games Watched:

• Pitt 2022
• Florida 2022
• LSU 2022
• Alabama 2022
• Senior Bowl

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Georgia

Position: OT

Year: Redshirt Sophomore

The Good: Jones has a supreme amount of natural talent, as made clear by his stellar showing at the NFL Combine. There wasn’t necessarily any offensive lineman with a freak show performance at the Combine this year, but Jones might have been the best of the group with a position-leading 4.97 40-yard dash at a well-carried 311lbs. Jones also measured in longer than expected at 6’5” with nearly 35” arms, and he’s good about maximizing his length on tape. Jones is a naturally quick OT, both as a runner in open space and with his hand activity across from pass rushers. He possesses “move against your will” type of raw power and an extremely strong grip with his hands.

The Bad: Jones only has one full season of starting experience under his belt, and it shows. For a likely first rounder, there remains a potentially staggering amount of work ahead for Jones’ next coaching staff. Jones will have to get better at centering his hands and sustaining blocks in both the pass and run games, and I’d like to see him finish more consistently in the run game as well. As a pass protector, Jones needs to improve his anchor if he’s going to stand a chance against speed-to-power rushes at the next level. He also has a bad habit of locking up and sinking his head at the arc of pass rushes, leaving him vulnerable to both speed around his outside shoulder and counter moves. There’s also way too much action with Jones’ feet right now. He needs to generally calm them down off the snap in pass sets, and he also has a weird kick step when pulling inside that he’ll want to ditch.

The Bottom Line: It’s never a dumb strategy to bet on talent in the NFL Draft, and in the right spot I’d endorse it for Jones. I just can’t get there with his projection as a top-to-middle of Round 1 type of prospect. You might have to wait until Year 3 of his career to see the light at the end of the tunnel for Jones, and I’m not even sure what position will best suit him in the NFL; I have a good feeling that it won’t be left tackle, so it’s a toss-up between right tackle or guard. I wrote this in Paris Johnson’s ‘Bottom Line’ too that the college-to-NFL transition for offensive tackles is particularly brutal, and you only get rookies on 4-5 year contracts. Leaving Georgia’s friendly confines will make it even tougher for Jones, and even once it pans out for him I’m not sure I see the same potential ceiling for him as I do for Johnson – let alone a Tristan Wirfs type of mega-prospect who didn’t have it all figured out yet in college either.

Grade: Second Round

Pro Comp: Tytus Howard

Games Watched:

• Tennessee 2021
• South Carolina 2022
• Missouri 2022
• Florida 2022
• LSU 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Ohio State

Position: OT

Year: Junior

The Good: As much as any prospect in this upcoming NFL Draft, Paris Johnson Jr. has the physical look of the epitome of his position. Johnson has a 6’6”, 313lbs frame and his arms measured at 36⅛” at the Combine – within the Top 10 at the position over the last decade. For that reason, he’ll likely receive comps to recent high picks at the left tackle position with similarly long builds like Andrew Thomas and Ronnie Stanley. On the field, Johnson plays light on his feet and has enough functional strength to stand up bull rushers. He’s a swift blocker who combo blocks well, and he is at his best in the power run game when Johnson can square up the man in front of him and push him backwards. I get the sense in watching his tape that Johnson is a smart and hard-working player; pad level could be a concern for his height but Johnson is consistent in getting low to earn it. 

The Bad: Johnson will still be 21 years old on the night of the NFL Draft, and he plays like it. He has a ways to go with his technique, both with his feet and hands. Johnson has a recurring problem with oversetting out of his stance right now – which is common for young tackles – and he can get his skis crossed shuffling in pass protection. He isn’t an effective run blocker on the move yet; Johnson usually will just throw his front shoulder at the defender and hope that’s enough. He needs to improve at landing his hands in both the run and pass games, and Johnson doesn’t strike his hands in unison enough either. I think it will benefit Johnson to land with a team that has him gain some weight and encourages him to play with more ferocity. 313lbs skews to the lighter side of NFL OTs, and Johnson was too passive and on his heels playing on Ohio State’s line. 

The Bottom Line: I understand why Johnson has already declared for the Draft – he’s going to be selected in the Round 1 with his length and athleticism – but he’s the type of OL prospect that I would’ve loved to stay at college for another year to further refine his game. The transition from college to the NFL is as tough for offensive tackles as it is for just about any other position, and Johnson still has plenty of development left ahead of him. He’s almost certainly going to take his lumps as a rookie, so whatever team selects Johnson early in the Draft will bank on him being mentally tough enough to shake off his early struggles – like the aforementioned Andrew Thomas has with the Giants. That is way easier said than done; Thomas was a blue-chip and far better prospect than Johnson in my opinion, and he had the fallback of kicking inside to guard that I don’t necessarily see as an option in the NFL for Johnson. (Johnson did start at right guard during his sophomore year for the Buckeyes, but I wasn’t overly impressed by what I saw from him there.) The good news for Johnson is that I thought he improved as his junior season went along; his game against Penn State was simultaneously the last and best of his that I watched. I like Johnson and he has the tools that you can’t teach at left tackle, but he’s currently being pegged in the top half of Round 1 in mock drafts and that would be too much of a gamble for my liking.

Grade: Late First Round / Early Second Round

Pro Comp: Cam Robinson

Games Watched:

• Oregon 2021
• Notre Dame 2022
• Wisconsin 2022
• Iowa 2022
• Penn State 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Northwestern

Position: OT

Year: Junior

The Good: Skoronski is only 21 years old and yet has three full years of starting experience in the Big 10 under his belt. His body type is more stout than the typical left tackle; his physical resemblance isn’t far off from Rashawn Slater, the incumbent LT at Northwestern. With that though, Skoronski has a sturdy base and has proven on tape that he can reset his balance and recover in reps where he loses early ground. Skoronski’s feet, instincts, and positioning are all excellent. He’s a menace when given opportunities to pull, seal, and down block. In pass protection, Skoronski handles speed around the edge well, and he has enough core strength to anchor against most pass rushers. He’s clearly in tune with his technique and a student of the finer things that go into offensive line play. Skoronski never disappoints with pad level and his pass sets improved over time; you even see him working new things into his game during live reps.

The Bad: The main drawback against Skoronski is his size, with both suboptimal arm length and a relative lack of raw power. I don’t care all that much about length in his case, but the power issue does show up when Skoronski is lined up across from high-end pass rushers; that clip of him getting flattened by Lukas Van Ness has reached viral status on NFL Draft Twitter. As a run blocker on the move, Skoronski sustains more than he drives and finishes, and he can occasionally get off-balance when attacking forward. Skoronski has the style of a mauler in that he grips his man and fights until the whistle – which is largely a good thing – though the drawbacks are that he’s not as natural when defenders are able to counter against him, and he can allow too much inside leverage when he overly locks into a man on the edge. Also, and I assume this is something that Skoronski is well aware of and lives with for his best technique, but there is a little too much obvious pre-snap variance between his run and pass sets.

The Bottom Line: Even if those ‘Good’ and ‘Bad’ sections have similar word counts, don’t be fooled; Skoronski is a beast. It’s really easy to nitpick offensive linemen, and in Skoronski’s case the pros outweigh the cons. At his ripe age with big-time experience and plenty of talent and technique to go along with it, Skoronski shouldn’t wait long to hear his name called on Draft Day. I absolutely believe he can – and should – stay at tackle in the NFL too despite chatter of kicking him inside. And though it’s not like Northwestern had a roster full of quitters by the end of the season, it’s noteworthy that Skoronski not only stuck by the program but played his ass off until the final game of the Wildcats’ 1-11 season in 2022. 

Though I’ve generally avoided pontificating on specific landing spots for prospects in these profiles, I can’t believe the Bears aren’t working harder to manipulate the Draft board and position themselves to take Skoronski. All of the talk is about Chicago trading back and staying within range for Will Anderson and Jalen Carter – and I’m familiar with their work – but landing a bigger trade haul and still leaving with the local kid at a premium position sounds like the ideal outcome to me.

Grade: Top 10 Pick

Pro Comp: Ryan Ramczyk

Games Watched:

• Michigan State 2021
• Wisconsin 2021
• Nebraska 2022
• Penn State 2022
• Wisconsin 2022
• Ohio State 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Oregon State

Position: TE

Year: Fourth-Year Junior

The Good: Musgrave is a freaky prospect at 6’6”, 255lbs with a 40-yard dash time that might clock beneath 4.50 seconds at the upcoming NFL Combine. Musgrave plays to his height and runs like a damn gazelle on the football field, so we aren’t just talking about his frame here. He flies off the LOS and has very nimble feet from there – his background in skiing makes sense. Even if Musgrave doesn’t put it all together as an NFL caliber tight end, he’s enough of a vertical threat that he should provide value whenever he’s on the field. Defenses will need to account for his deep speed and ability to physically separate on every snap. Musgrave is a willing blocker who works to get low for pad level despite his height.

The Bad: I teased it by writing “whenever he’s on the field,” but Musgrave is definitely a health risk and missed the final 11 games of Oregon State’s latest season due to injury. That drops his floor before you even get into his game. As a blocker, Musgrave is mostly mediocre. His run blocking is fine compared to flat-out bad pass blocking, but he’s generally off-balance and struggles to down block when he’s aligned on the LOS. Musgrave has iffy hands; he’s had his fair share of drops and has been disappointing in contested catch situations on tape. Musgrave’s game just lacks all-around refinement right now, which might be a concern figuring he’ll be 23 years old by Week 1. Perhaps that could sort itself out with time and better health, but as things stand Musgrave’s game is basically trying to run away from defenders as fast as he can.

The Bottom Line: It’s really tough to peg a grade on Musgrave because of the position he plays coupled with the fact that he missed almost the entirety of what figured to be his breakout season. I wouldn’t say that he wasn’t productive; Musgrave led Oregon State in receiving in each of the two games he played and posted 5+ receptions and 80+ yards against two quality teams (Boise State and Fresno State). By all accounts, Musgrave also had a good showing at the Senior Bowl. His profile combined with his raw talent make Musgrave a legitimately tantalizing prospect, and I wouldn’t fault any front office for pushing him up and up their boards until we finally reach the Draft in April. I’m excited to see what Musgrave could become in the NFL, but I’ll temper my excitement a bit because of the unknown that comes along with him and real flaws in his game that shouldn’t be ignored just because of his tools. 

Grade: Second Round

Pro Comp: Jordan Cameron

Games Watched:

• Oregon 2021
• Boise State 2022
• Fresno State 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Utah

Position: TE

Year: Senior

The Good: Kincaid is visibly a tremendous all-around athlete; his basketball background is clear once you watch him play. He’s an easy runner who displays nifty footwork, and he’s extremely quick to hitch in his curl routes (which dominated his route tree at Utah). Kincaid is natural in high-pointing the football and can go up and get balls; he boasts one of the better contested catch rates in this class. Kincaid is willing to lower his shoulder and displays enough toughness with the ball in his hands.

The Bad: Before you even get into Kincaid’s tape, you observe that he’s a fifth-year senior who just enjoyed his breakout season at 23 years old. His age alone certainly doesn’t invalidate Kincaid as a prospect, but it’s worth noting – especially since his production was closely intertwined with his athletic advantage over Pac-12 defenders. And more into that production, Kincaid caught 23% of his receptions and 26% of his yards on the season in one game against USC where they let him cook so long as he stayed in front of them all game. More into his player profile, Kincaid is a total non-entity as a blocker. Kincaid can still survive in the NFL as a F tight end who purely lives out of the slot, but that’s a limited offering for perhaps football’s most versatile position before even entering the league. And I am that pessimistic about Kincaid’s blocking. Kincaid is obviously a talented receiver – otherwise we wouldn’t be having an NFL Draft conversation about him – but he doesn’t possess much craft to his route running nor much of a physical advantage at 240lbs compared to pro TEs.

The Bottom Line: I’m pretty confused about the hype surrounding Kincaid. (I formed this opinion before recent news of a back fracture that will keep Kincaid out of the Combine, for what it’s worth.) Like, he could become a fun complementary TE in an NFL offense, but I don’t see a Round 1 prospect here. I covered his lack of blocking in enough detail, and I’m not confident in Kincaid being THAT sure-handed or THAT fast or THAT good with the ball in his hands to remain a mismatch in the NFL and overcome his deficiencies. Utah had sneaky good surroundings for Kincaid as well, with a QB in Cam Rising who would’ve been drafted had he declared and an offensive coordinator in Andy Ludwig that Notre Dame unsuccessfully attempted to hire. Usually we’d collectively care more about a prospect being 23 and “breaking out” against Pac-12 competition, but I’m seldom hearing it raised in Kincaid’s narrative at all. It feels like Daniel Jeremiah placed him as a Top 10 prospect in his first rankings and we’re all just running with it now. Like I said, pretty confusing to me.

Grade: Third Round

Pro Comp: Lance Kendricks

Games Watched:

• Arizona State 2022
• USC 2022
• Washington State 2022
• Oregon 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Georgia

Position: TE

Year: Junior

The Good: Washington is absolutely enormous at 6’7”, 270lbs, and his play strength matches his measurables. Washington is an incredible lead blocker, and he’s a reliable blocker on the line of scrimmage too. He has a sturdy base, effectively seals the edge, and can smoothly work off one block to another. Washington has a surprising amount of twitch for his size, and the results were terrifying when Georgia was able to get the ball into his hands. He’s laughably hard to tackle. I also loved to see that he worked to get open when given reps as a receiver. 

The Bad: Washington isn’t nearly as instinctual as a receiver compared to his instincts as a blocker. He doesn’t have the softest hands, and he didn’t look natural in the few chances he got on the receiving end of quick timing throws. Despite his height, Washington isn’t exactly the “throw it up” type; he can win contested catches but he isn’t Jimmy Graham out there. Washington is plenty effective as a blocker from the Y alignment, but he’s got more to clean up there compared to how he plays from the H-back setup. He can tend to lock his knees once engaged, and there were times where he looked slow to down block. 

The Bottom Line: Washington’s skillset and versatility make him genuinely unique, so whoever lands him will have a player in their offense that requires specific gameplanning. He’s like Vonta Leach as a lead blocker meets Martellus Bennett as a ball carrier. Despite a middling stat line as a receiver – 28 receptions/454 yards/2 TDs – Washington was extremely productive during Georgia’s most recent championship season. I cannot stress enough how many big plays and TDs his blocking or merely his presence sprung in that offense. Washington might not log a 100% snap count at his size, but there’s a place for him across multiple personnel packages and he plays extremely hard. You can tell that he’s a beloved teammate. Washington definitely won’t be every team’s cup of tea as a first round prospect, but he’ll rank very highly on certain draft boards so he’s going to be selected in the first round – as he should.

Grade: Mid First Round

Pro Comp: Marcedes Lewis

Games Watched:

• Oregon 2022
• Missouri 2022
• Mississippi State 2022
• LSU 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Notre Dame

Position: TE

Year: Junior

The Good: Mayer is a massive target, and QBs know that they can throw a ball in his direction at any moment with a high-percentage chance of it being caught. He’s as sure-handed as it gets at the TE position, and he can adjust in any direction to reel in off-target throws. As a red zone weapon and chain mover, he lives up to the expectations of his gigantic frame. Mayer isn’t an athlete at the position in the same sense as a Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews, but he’s well-balanced and can put one foot in the ground and run convincing short routes. As a blocker, Mayer is very capable from an in-line set, and he’s proven that he can throw blocks in space if needed too.

The Bad: I mentioned Mayer’s athleticism, and by that I mean that he’s on the slower side – both running and popping out of his stance. Mayer is just generally stiff, and the ability to flips his hips and quickly change direction just isn’t there for him. Once Mayer is running on his path, he’s best off staying on that path – which limits his most effective route tree. He tends to lean when blocking on the move and, while he’s certainly a good blocker, I’m not sure that Mayer is a difference making blocker. The downside to Mayer’s stocky build is his stubby arms; at under 32″, his arm length is in the lower tenth percentile for tight end prospects.

The Bottom Line: Mayer is a throwback as a tight end prospect. Without knowing anything about the grandfather of whoever is reading this, I can assure you that Mayer would be your grandfather’s favorite in this class. Mayer is legitimately effective when aligned in the slot or split out wide, but he’s at his best when set up as a prototypical Y tight end. I’m 98% sure that Mayer will eventually be selected in the first round, though I’m unsure if I’d personally endorse that decision. I definitely think Mayer will be a solid player in the NFL, but I expect him to be more of a ‘good receiver/good blocker’ type compared to the ‘great receiver/great blocker’ type he was at Notre Dame. And honestly, with Mayer’s pedigree, I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s picked so highly that it becomes one of this Draft’s biggest surprise moments.

Grade: Late First Round / Early Second Round

Pro Comp: Todd Heap

Games Watched:

• Alabama 2020
• USC 2021
• Virginia 2021
• Oklahoma State 2021
• Ohio State 2022
• USC 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Boston College

Position: WR

Year: Senior

The Good: No other receiver in this class gets open like Flowers. He wins at all levels of the field and can beat any coverage look. Flowers is natural lined up both outside and in the slot. He absorbs contact much better than his 175lb weight would indicate, and he has a good sense of leverage when lined up outside. Flowers excels at physical separation without getting flagged for it, and he knows how to sell routes using his body and shoulders to get wide open. Flowers is just a natural on the football field; he has feel for the sticks and soft spots of zones, and he’s great at ball tracking too. Athletically, Flowers is fast off the line of scrimmage and has absurd change of direction ability. He plays much bigger than his size and is a phenomenal blocker.

The Bad: Flowers’ hands are overall solid but he can have a case of the bobbles. Though he plays with physicality and can go up to catch balls, that still doesn’t make Flowers a bankable contested catch winner. On tape, he looks like a one-gear runner without much deep acceleration. I’ll be closely monitoring how he performs at the Combine.

The Bottom Line: I freaking love Zay Flowers. He is a nuanced wide receiver who plays the game with extreme toughness, and he has more than enough shift and speed to win with his tools too at the next level. It’s hard not to reminisce on peak Antonio Brown when you watch Zay Flowers play football. Flowers was uber productive in college with over 700 receiving yards each season from his sophomore to senior year, including a 78 receptions/1,077 yards/12 TDs line to cap off his career at Boston College. His numbers could have been far better too; BC’s quarterback play in 2021 was genuinely hard to watch, and Flowers faced a lot of double coverage as a senior. This era of player empowerment in college football is mostly a good thing, but I can still love and appreciate that Flowers turned down NIL transfer deals to return to college for personal and team betterment. Everything you watch and read about Flowers indicates that he’s an ultimate buy-in guy, and I think he’ll pay immediate dividends for whatever team drafts him. He’s probably my WR1 in this class, and if he outperforms expectations at the Combine – which is possible – then he’s a lock for that spot.

Grade: Mid First Round

Pro Comp: Emmanuel Sanders

Games Watched:

• North Carolina 2020
• Clemson 2021
• Louisville 2021
• Rutgers 2022
• Wake Forest 2022
• Syracuse 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]