Every year, there are dozens of good picks in fantasy football drafts. That means over the last five years, there have been hundreds of good picks.
But how about game-changing, league-tilting, season-defining picks? By my count, there have been 38 of those picks since 2021.
(And I’m not counting early first-round picks in drafts. Yes, Jahmyr Gibbs or Bijan Robinson could have swung your league last year, but only people with a Top 3 pick could have landed them.)
What were those picks? And what lessons can we learn from them? AKA, who’s most likely to replicate in 2026?

In order of likelihood of occurrence:
The Only Lesson to Occur Twice
- Lesson: “Take Any Real-Life Top 5 WR Outside the Top 5 Picks”
Cases: 2024 Ja’Marr Chase (ADP 6, WR4; Finish: WR1) / 2022 Justin Jefferson (ADP 7, WR2; Finish: WR1)
Best Guess for 2026: Justin Jefferson (ADP 12, WR6)
I don’t know anyone who denies that Justin Jefferson is a Top 5 wide receiver in the NFL. Last season, particularly the second half, was rough for fantasy purposes. But…JJ McCarthy. Otherwise, Jefferson has finished as the WR4, WR1, WR5 (by PPG), and WR2.
Runner-Up: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (ADP 7, WR3)
Individual Cases
- Lesson: “Take CMC Outside of the Top 5 Picks”
Case: 2025 Christian McCaffrey (ADP 7, RB4; Finish: RB1)
Best Guess for 2026: Christian McCaffrey (ADP 5, RB3)
The book is established on CMC: he only leads all players in fantasy scoring or screws teams over by October 1.
Runner-Up: N/A
- Lesson: “Take Derrick Henry in Round 2”
Case: 2024 Derrick Henry (ADP 17, RB8; Finish: RB2)
Best Guess for 2026: Derrick Henry (ADP 17, RB12)
For anyone who counters with Derrick Henry’s age of 32 or his lack of pass catching prowess, I encourage you to log off and look at Derrick Henry. If you want to talk stats, Henry has scored at least 19 PPG (Half PPR) 4 times over the last 7 seasons.
Runner-Up: N/A
- Lesson: “Josh Allen Can Outscore the Other QBs by Many PPG”
Case: 2023 Josh Allen (ADP 20, QB2; Finish: QB1)
Best Guess for 2026: Josh Allen (ADP 21, QB1)
Since 2020, Josh Allen has finished as the QB1, QB1, QB2, QB1, QB2, and QB1. In most of those QB1 years, including 2026, he has finished with 1.0 – 2.0 PPG above the next crop of QBs. Like I said atop this article…a good pick! But in 2023, when Allen finished with 2.3 more PPG than the QB2 and 4.8 more PPG than the QB5, that was a league-winning pick.
Runner-Up: N/A
Possible Deja Vu for Same Player
- Lesson: “Former Overall RB1s Can Do It Again”
Case: 2025 Jonathan Taylor (ADP 18, RB9; Finish: RB2)
Best Guess for 2026: Jonathan Taylor (ADP 6, RB4)
Jonathan Taylor rushed for over 3,000 yards combined over the last two seasons and is still only 27 years old, but I think people genuinely do forget that he’s responsible for one of the greatest RB seasons of all-time in 2021.
Runner-Up: Saquon Barkley (ADP 12, RB6)
- Lesson: “Good TE Who Plays 100% of Snaps in Pass-Heavy Offense”
Case: 2025 Trey McBride (ADP 28, TE2; Finish: TE1)
Best Guess for 2026: Trey McBride (ADP 26, TE2)
I know it’s the Arizona Cardinals, but it remains wild that McBride put up a season of 126/1239/11 and his ADP stayed flat.
Runner-Up: N/A
- Lesson: “QB Rushing is King”
Case: 2024 Lamar Jackson (ADP 37, QB4; Finish: QB1)
Best Guess for 2026: Lamar Jackson (ADP 39, QB2)
You do not receive many chances to buy low on Lamar Jackson. Even if Lamar rushes for closer to 700 yards than the 915 he had in 2024, that would make him a high-end QB.
Runner-Up: Jayden Daniels (ADP 62, QB6)
- Lesson: “Ringleader of the #1 Offense in the League”
Case: 2024 Joe Burrow (ADP 65, QB8; Finish: QB3)
Best Guess for 2026: Joe Burrow (ADP 53, QB4)
I’m talking out of both sides of my mouth here following the previous lesson, but QBs don’t NEED to be rushing types to crush in fantasy. 4500 passing yards and 40+ TDs will always be extremely valuable.
Runner-Up: Dak Prescott (ADP 80, QB9)
- Lesson: “QB Who Can Score 10+ TDs on the Ground”
Case: 2022 Jalen Hurts (ADP 60, QB7; Finish: QB3)
Best Guess for 2026: Jalen Hurts (ADP 62, QB5)
Tush Push or not, Philly has little reason to stop leaning on Hurts around the goal line. And at this ADP, his most affordable in years, the floor on Hurts remains so high.
Runner-Up: Trevor Lawrence (ADP 86, QB10)
- Lesson: “40 TDs = A Lot of Points!”
Case: 2024 Baker Mayfield (ADP 158, QB21; Finish: QB4)
Best Guess for 2026: Sam Darnold (ADP 155, QB20)
Baker had seasons of 26, 27, and 28 TDs before popping for 41, so it wasn’t COMPLETELY out of nowhere. Looking at Darnold, he’s thrown for 25 and 35 TDs over the last two seasons.
Runner-Up: Baker Mayfield (ADP 145, QB18)
Near the Top of the Draft, Not Hard to Envision
- Lesson: “Stop Denying That This WR Is One of the Game’s Very Best”
Case: 2025 Puka Nacua (ADP 14, WR7; Finish: WR1)
Best Guess for 2026: Amon-Ra St. Brown (ADP 7, WR4)
It’s easy to forget after Puka put up his most dominant season yet in 2025, but he had his haters going into last year’s fantasy drafts – whether that was because of durability concerns, being a “Stafford merchant,” or something else. To a lesser extreme, it feels like people still ding Amon-Ra for being a low aDOT byproduct of the Lions’ offense. That is…dumb.
Runner-Up: George Pickens (ADP 24, WR10)
- Lesson: “There’s a Path Towards 180+ Targets”
Case: 2023 CeeDee Lamb (ADP 12, WR5; Finish: WR1)
Best Guess for 2026: Justin Jefferson (ADP 12, WR6)
This isn’t shortchanging CeeDee’s talent as the reason why he finished as the Overall WR1 in 2023, but having the 8th most single-season targets in a decade certainly helped! You have to look towards offenses without a reliable WR2: I’d say both Minnesota and Houston qualify for that.
Runner-Up: Nico Collins (ADP 23, WR9)
- Lesson: “Very Realistic Path to 300+ Carries Behind a Great OL ”
Case: 2021 Jonathan Taylor (ADP 10, RB8; Finish: RB1)
Best Guess for 2026: Saquon Barkley (ADP 12, RB6)
Jonathan Taylor would qualify again here, but let’s pivot to Saquon instead. Lane Johnson and Landon Dickerson stuck around for another year, plus the Eagles made an upgrade at Offensive Coordinator. This one is so simple it’s boring: if Saquon stays healthy, he should rush for 1500+ yards behind that line.
Runner-Up: James Cook (ADP 9, RB5)
- Lesson: “Pay Attention When a Team Goes All-In for a Stud WR”
Case: 2022 Tyreek Hill (ADP 22, WR7; Finish: WR2)
Best Guess for 2026: AJ Brown (ADP 20, WR8)
AJ Brown and Tyreek Hill are nearly polar opposite profiles as alpha wide receivers, yet both are 1-of-1 types. And when a team gives up a first-rounder to drop him into a good offense as the lead dog…it could work!
Runner-Up: Jaylen Waddle (ADP 45, WR21)
- Lesson: “Biggest Cheat Code in Fantasy is a TE Who Scores Like a WR1”
Case: 2022 Travis Kelce (ADP 15, TE1; Finish: TE1)
Best Guess for 2026: Brock Bowers (ADP 22, TE1)
Travis Kelce in 2022 went for 110/1343/12, finishing as the TE1 by over 5 PPG. Not only that, he would have finished as the Overall WR5. It’s probably the single most boom-bust approach in fantasy football – see 2025 Brock Bowers for the “bust” case – but the upside is unparalleled.
Runner-Up: N/A
- Lesson: “WR1 Who Levels Up in New Offense”
Case: 2025 Jaxon Smith-Njigba (ADP 33, WR14; Finish: WR2)
Best Guess for 2026: DeVonta Smith (ADP 32, WR13)
It’s a bit scary how eerily similar the on-paper case is for DeVonta Smith to replicate JSN’s 2025. Both are elite college producers without eye-popping athleticism who had proven themselves as good NFL wideouts without receiving the chance to dominate target share. But then a jacked, problematic Ole Miss alum gets out of his way and…boom.
Runner-Up: Zay Flowers (ADP 37, WR15)
Near the Top of the Draft, Harder to Envision
- Lesson: “Could Run + Catch His Way to 20 Total TDs”
Case: 2021 Austin Ekeler (ADP 13, RB10; Finish: RB2)
Best Guess for 2026: Chase Brown (ADP 14, RB8)
Runner-Up: De’Von Achane (ADP 12, RB7)
- Lesson: “Explosive RB on New Team That Paid Him A Lot”
Case: 2024 Saquon Barkley (ADP 11, RB5; Finish: RB1)
Best Guess for 2026: Kenneth Walker (ADP 16, RB11)
Runner-Up: Travis Etienne (ADP 38, RB17)
- Lesson: “Year 2 RB Ready to Score 20 TDs”
Case: 2024 Jahmyr Gibbs (ADP 12, RB6; Finish: RB2)
Best Guess for 2026: Ashton Jeanty (ADP 16, RB10)
Runner-Up: Omarion Hampton (ADP 16, RB9)
- Lesson: “You Haven’t Seen the REAL Breakout Yet”
Case: 2023 Amon-Ra St. Brown (ADP 18, WR10; Finish: WR3)
Best Guess for 2026: Chris Olave (ADP 27, WR11)
Runner-Up: Drake London (ADP 20, WR7)
- Lesson: “Don’t Underreact to the Big Rookie Year WR”
Case: 2021 Justin Jefferson (ADP 25, WR7; Finish: WR4)
Best Guess for 2026: Malik Nabers* (ADP 28, WR12)
Runner-Up: Emeka Egbuka (ADP 43, WR19)
- Lesson: “1A/1B WR Becomes Clear Top Option on Loaded Offense”
Case: 2021 Cooper Kupp (ADP 45, WR17; Finish: WR1)
Best Guess for 2026: Ladd McConkey (ADP 41, WR18)
Runner-Up: Luther Burden (ADP 54, WR23)
Middle Round Targets
- Lesson: “If a Young TE Has Flashed Elite Upside, You’ve Seen Enough”
Case: 2021 Mark Andrews (ADP 52, TE5; Finish: TE1)
Best Guess for 2026: Colston Loveland (ADP 41, TE3)
Runner-Up: Tyler Warren (ADP 50, TE4)
- Lesson: “Out of Nowhere Rushing Title from High-Pedigree RB”
Case: 2022 Josh Jacobs (ADP 50, RB22; Finish: RB3)
Best Guess for 2026: Quinshon Judkins (ADP 46, RB20)
Runner-Up: D’Andre Swift (ADP 44, RB19)
- Lesson: “WR Who’s Over 30 But Still Dominant When He Plays”
Case: 2023 Keenan Allen (ADP 43, WR19; Finish: WR8)
Best Guess for 2026: Davante Adams (ADP 57, WR25)
Runner-Up: Mike Evans (ADP 68, WR29)
- Lesson: “Shut Up About Efficiency, Some TEs are Built Different”
Case: 2024 George Kittle (ADP 60, TE6; Finish: TE2)
Best Guess for 2026: Tucker Kraft (ADP 66, TE5)
Runner-Up: N/A
- Lesson: “TE Who Could Catch 100+ Receptions in a Bad Offense”
Case: 2024 Brock Bowers (ADP 98, TE11; Finish: TE1)
Best Guess for 2026: Harold Fannin (ADP 70, TE6)
Runner-Up: Kyle Pitts (ADP 75, TE8)
- Lesson: “Swiss-Army-Knife Takes on Bigger Role in Offense”
Case: 2021 Deebo Samuel (ADP 87, WR34; Finish: WR2)
Best Guess for 2026: Parker Washington (ADP 69, WR30)
Runner-Up: Rashid Shaheed (ADP 149, WR54)
- Lesson: “20 TD Potential in Big Offense if RB Split Goes His Way”
Case: 2023 Raheem Mostert (ADP 119, RB39; Finish: RB2)
Best Guess for 2026: Kyle Monangai (ADP 98, RB37)
Runner-Up: Chris Rodriguez (ADP 147, RB45)
- Lesson: “Ignore the Offseason and Stay Patient with Blue-Chip Rookies”
Case: 2021 Ja’Marr Chase (ADP 74, WR28; Finish: WR5)
Best Guess for 2026: Jordyn Tyson (ADP 116, WR47)
Runner-Up: Carnell Tate (ADP 77, WR32)
Late Round QBs
- Lesson: “Never Too Young to Run for 800+ Yards”
Case: 2024 Jayden Daniels (ADP 99, QB12; Finish: QB5)
Best Guess for 2026: Malik Willis (ADP 160, QB21)
Runner-Up: N/A
- Lesson: “Year 2 QB Leap, Sneaky Rushing”
Case: 2025 Drake Maye (ADP 120, QB16; Finish: QB2)
Best Guess for 2026: Tyler Shough (ADP 171, QB23)
Runner-Up: Jaxson Dart (ADP 97, QB11)
- Lesson: “Bounceback Year Following Bad Offseason”
Case: 2025 Matthew Stafford (ADP 175, QB25; Finish: QB3)
Best Guess for 2026: CJ Stroud (ADP 171, QB24)
Runner-Up: Daniel Jones (ADP 184, QB28)
Last Round Dart Throws
- Lesson: “Young, Athletic TE Who Can Score 10 TDs”
Case: 2023 Sam LaPorta (ADP 166, TE17; Finish: TE1)
Best Guess for 2026: Terrance Ferguson (ADP 184, TE22)
Runner-Up: N/A
- Lesson: “Size/Speed Freak WR Who Pops in a Surprising Offense”
Case: 2023 Nico Collins (ADP 162, WR57; Finish: WR9)
Best Guess for 2026: Adonai Mitchell (ADP 218, WR79)
Runner-Up: Chris Bell (ADP 212, WR77)
Waiver Wire Miracles
- Lesson: “What if He’s the New RB1 on His Team by October?”
Case: 2023 Kyren Williams (ADP 196, RB70; Finish: RB6)
Best Guess for 2026: Sean Tucker (ADP 247, RB70)
Runner-Up: Najee Harris (ADP 200, RB71)
- Lesson: “One Vet Injury/Decline Away from Undrafted to Star”
Case: 2023 Puka Nacua (ADP 273, WR87; Finish: WR4)
Best Guess for 2026: Ryan Flournoy (ADP 234, WR84)
Runner-Up: Pat Bryant (ADP 234, WR83)









