School: Indiana / Washington
Position: QB
Year: Redshirt Senior
The Good: If you watched even one quarter of Washington Huskies football this past season, then you know that Michael Penix Jr. has a firehose for a left arm. His natural velocity is special, and he backs up his arm talent with quantifiable deep ball production. Penix can throw open receivers far better than most college QBs, and he feels equally dangerous throwing to all parts of the field. I’m not sure anyone in this class can create non-existent throwing windows better than him. Penix is an extremely quick decision maker; he takes so few sacks and is smart about throwing the ball away. He didn’t throw many incompletions, and still so many of his incompletions were either intentional or miscommunications. Penix is very accurate with clean looks, and he’s great about setting himself up for those opportunities; he’s plenty mobile even though he’s not a runner. Penix is a total field general of a QB in complete command of his offense.
The Bad: While a solid athlete, Penix is definitely a passer best suited for staying in the pocket. Penix isn’t an adept scrambler and throwing on the run is a weakness for him; his accuracy definitely drops off platform. Even from the pocket, disguised coverages can give Penix fits; bad things can happen when defenses take away where he wants to go with the ball. Between that and his tendency to press and try to do too much with the football, Penix is going to throw his fair share of interceptions; his team is just going to need to live with that. It jumps off the tape that Penix has a wonky motion and mechanics and, while I don’t think it’s a massive deal in his case, it will occasionally backfire. He has more frequent inexplicable misfires on tape than you’d typically see from a potential first-round QB prospect. Physically, while I think too much has been made about Penix’s medical history since he’s most recently completed two full seasons at Washington, Penix is low-key skinny with not much power from his lower half; he’s all arm.
The Bottom Line: Michael Penix Jr. would be Billy Beane’s QB1. He’s the Moneyball quarterback. There are so many reasons to write him off in draft war rooms: he’s old (turning 24 before Week 1), he’s lefty, he’s got a funky delivery, he’s torn his ACLs, etc. But Penix is also a better athlete with a better build than he’s widely getting credit for. Oh, and he’s one of the most productive college QBs of the 21st century. Penix oozes confidence; every 4th down feels like it’s going to be converted with him under center. Go watch his tape vs Oregon State from this last season. It wasn’t perfect, but Penix gutted out a win against a very good team on the road with minimal help and terrible conditions. He’s tough, reliable, anticipatory, and operates quickly without cutting corners – sign me up.
Grade: Mid First Round
Pro Comp: Lefty Eli Manning
Games Watched:
- Cincinnati 2021
- Michigan State 2022
- UCLA 2022
- Arizona 2022
- Oregon 2022
- Texas 2022 (Alamo Bowl)
- Boise State 2023
- Cal 2023
- USC 2023
- Oregon 2023
- Oregon State 2023
- Washington State 2023
- Texas 2023 (CFP Semi)
- Michigan 2023 (CFP Final)
Epiblogue 