School: Oregon State

Position: TE

Year: Fourth-Year Junior

The Good: Musgrave is a freaky prospect at 6’6”, 255lbs with a 40-yard dash time that might clock beneath 4.50 seconds at the upcoming NFL Combine. Musgrave plays to his height and runs like a damn gazelle on the football field, so we aren’t just talking about his frame here. He flies off the LOS and has very nimble feet from there – his background in skiing makes sense. Even if Musgrave doesn’t put it all together as an NFL caliber tight end, he’s enough of a vertical threat that he should provide value whenever he’s on the field. Defenses will need to account for his deep speed and ability to physically separate on every snap. Musgrave is a willing blocker who works to get low for pad level despite his height.

The Bad: I teased it by writing “whenever he’s on the field,” but Musgrave is definitely a health risk and missed the final 11 games of Oregon State’s latest season due to injury. That drops his floor before you even get into his game. As a blocker, Musgrave is mostly mediocre. His run blocking is fine compared to flat-out bad pass blocking, but he’s generally off-balance and struggles to down block when he’s aligned on the LOS. Musgrave has iffy hands; he’s had his fair share of drops and has been disappointing in contested catch situations on tape. Musgrave’s game just lacks all-around refinement right now, which might be a concern figuring he’ll be 23 years old by Week 1. Perhaps that could sort itself out with time and better health, but as things stand Musgrave’s game is basically trying to run away from defenders as fast as he can.

The Bottom Line: It’s really tough to peg a grade on Musgrave because of the position he plays coupled with the fact that he missed almost the entirety of what figured to be his breakout season. I wouldn’t say that he wasn’t productive; Musgrave led Oregon State in receiving in each of the two games he played and posted 5+ receptions and 80+ yards against two quality teams (Boise State and Fresno State). By all accounts, Musgrave also had a good showing at the Senior Bowl. His profile combined with his raw talent make Musgrave a legitimately tantalizing prospect, and I wouldn’t fault any front office for pushing him up and up their boards until we finally reach the Draft in April. I’m excited to see what Musgrave could become in the NFL, but I’ll temper my excitement a bit because of the unknown that comes along with him and real flaws in his game that shouldn’t be ignored just because of his tools. 

Grade: Second Round

Pro Comp: Jordan Cameron

Games Watched:

• Oregon 2021
• Boise State 2022
• Fresno State 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Utah

Position: TE

Year: Senior

The Good: Kincaid is visibly a tremendous all-around athlete; his basketball background is clear once you watch him play. He’s an easy runner who displays nifty footwork, and he’s extremely quick to hitch in his curl routes (which dominated his route tree at Utah). Kincaid is natural in high-pointing the football and can go up and get balls; he boasts one of the better contested catch rates in this class. Kincaid is willing to lower his shoulder and displays enough toughness with the ball in his hands.

The Bad: Before you even get into Kincaid’s tape, you observe that he’s a fifth-year senior who just enjoyed his breakout season at 23 years old. His age alone certainly doesn’t invalidate Kincaid as a prospect, but it’s worth noting – especially since his production was closely intertwined with his athletic advantage over Pac-12 defenders. And more into that production, Kincaid caught 23% of his receptions and 26% of his yards on the season in one game against USC where they let him cook so long as he stayed in front of them all game. More into his player profile, Kincaid is a total non-entity as a blocker. Kincaid can still survive in the NFL as a F tight end who purely lives out of the slot, but that’s a limited offering for perhaps football’s most versatile position before even entering the league. And I am that pessimistic about Kincaid’s blocking. Kincaid is obviously a talented receiver – otherwise we wouldn’t be having an NFL Draft conversation about him – but he doesn’t possess much craft to his route running nor much of a physical advantage at 240lbs compared to pro TEs.

The Bottom Line: I’m pretty confused about the hype surrounding Kincaid. (I formed this opinion before recent news of a back fracture that will keep Kincaid out of the Combine, for what it’s worth.) Like, he could become a fun complementary TE in an NFL offense, but I don’t see a Round 1 prospect here. I covered his lack of blocking in enough detail, and I’m not confident in Kincaid being THAT sure-handed or THAT fast or THAT good with the ball in his hands to remain a mismatch in the NFL and overcome his deficiencies. Utah had sneaky good surroundings for Kincaid as well, with a QB in Cam Rising who would’ve been drafted had he declared and an offensive coordinator in Andy Ludwig that Notre Dame unsuccessfully attempted to hire. Usually we’d collectively care more about a prospect being 23 and “breaking out” against Pac-12 competition, but I’m seldom hearing it raised in Kincaid’s narrative at all. It feels like Daniel Jeremiah placed him as a Top 10 prospect in his first rankings and we’re all just running with it now. Like I said, pretty confusing to me.

Grade: Third Round

Pro Comp: Lance Kendricks

Games Watched:

• Arizona State 2022
• USC 2022
• Washington State 2022
• Oregon 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Georgia

Position: TE

Year: Junior

The Good: Washington is absolutely enormous at 6’7”, 270lbs, and his play strength matches his measurables. Washington is an incredible lead blocker, and he’s a reliable blocker on the line of scrimmage too. He has a sturdy base, effectively seals the edge, and can smoothly work off one block to another. Washington has a surprising amount of twitch for his size, and the results were terrifying when Georgia was able to get the ball into his hands. He’s laughably hard to tackle. I also loved to see that he worked to get open when given reps as a receiver. 

The Bad: Washington isn’t nearly as instinctual as a receiver compared to his instincts as a blocker. He doesn’t have the softest hands, and he didn’t look natural in the few chances he got on the receiving end of quick timing throws. Despite his height, Washington isn’t exactly the “throw it up” type; he can win contested catches but he isn’t Jimmy Graham out there. Washington is plenty effective as a blocker from the Y alignment, but he’s got more to clean up there compared to how he plays from the H-back setup. He can tend to lock his knees once engaged, and there were times where he looked slow to down block. 

The Bottom Line: Washington’s skillset and versatility make him genuinely unique, so whoever lands him will have a player in their offense that requires specific gameplanning. He’s like Vonta Leach as a lead blocker meets Martellus Bennett as a ball carrier. Despite a middling stat line as a receiver – 28 receptions/454 yards/2 TDs – Washington was extremely productive during Georgia’s most recent championship season. I cannot stress enough how many big plays and TDs his blocking or merely his presence sprung in that offense. Washington might not log a 100% snap count at his size, but there’s a place for him across multiple personnel packages and he plays extremely hard. You can tell that he’s a beloved teammate. Washington definitely won’t be every team’s cup of tea as a first round prospect, but he’ll rank very highly on certain draft boards so he’s going to be selected in the first round – as he should.

Grade: Mid First Round

Pro Comp: Marcedes Lewis

Games Watched:

• Oregon 2022
• Missouri 2022
• Mississippi State 2022
• LSU 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Notre Dame

Position: TE

Year: Junior

The Good: Mayer is a massive target, and QBs know that they can throw a ball in his direction at any moment with a high-percentage chance of it being caught. He’s as sure-handed as it gets at the TE position, and he can adjust in any direction to reel in off-target throws. As a red zone weapon and chain mover, he lives up to the expectations of his gigantic frame. Mayer isn’t an athlete at the position in the same sense as a Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews, but he’s well-balanced and can put one foot in the ground and run convincing short routes. As a blocker, Mayer is very capable from an in-line set, and he’s proven that he can throw blocks in space if needed too.

The Bad: I mentioned Mayer’s athleticism, and by that I mean that he’s on the slower side – both running and popping out of his stance. Mayer is just generally stiff, and the ability to quickly change direction just isn’t there for him. Once Mayer is running on his path, he’s best off staying on that path – which limits his most effective route tree. He tends to lean when blocking on the move and, while he’s certainly a good blocker, I’m not sure that Mayer is a difference making blocker. 

The Bottom Line: Mayer is a throwback as a tight end prospect. Without knowing anything about the grandfather of whoever is reading this, I can assure you that Mayer would be your grandfather’s favorite in this class. Mayer is legitimately effective when aligned in the slot or split out wide, but he’s at his best when set up as a prototypical Y tight end. I’m 98% sure that Mayer will eventually be selected in the first round, though I’m unsure if I’d personally endorse that decision. I definitely think Mayer will be a solid player in the NFL, but I expect him to be more of a ‘good receiver/good blocker’ type compared to the ‘great receiver/great blocker’ type he was at Notre Dame. And honestly, with Mayer’s pedigree, I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s picked so highly that it becomes one of this Draft’s biggest surprise moments.

Grade: Late First Round / Early Second Round

Pro Comp: Jermaine Gresham

Games Watched:

• Alabama 2020
• USC 2021
• Virginia 2021
• Oklahoma State 2021
• Ohio State 2022
• USC 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Boston College

Position: WR

Year: Senior

The Good: No other receiver in this class gets open like Flowers. He wins at all levels of the field and can beat any coverage look. Flowers is natural lined up both outside and in the slot. He absorbs contact much better than his 175lb weight would indicate, and he has a good sense of leverage when lined up outside. Flowers excels at physical separation without getting flagged for it, and he knows how to sell routes using his body and shoulders to get wide open. Flowers is just a natural on the football field; he has feel for the sticks and soft spots of zones, and he’s great at ball tracking too. Athletically, Flowers is fast off the line of scrimmage and has absurd change of direction ability. He plays much bigger than his size and is a phenomenal blocker.

The Bad: Flowers’ hands are overall solid but he can have a case of the bobbles. Though he plays with physicality and can go up to catch balls, that still doesn’t make Flowers a bankable contested catch winner. On tape, he looks like a one-gear runner without much deep acceleration. I’ll be closely monitoring how he performs at the Combine.

The Bottom Line: I freaking love Zay Flowers. He is a nuanced wide receiver who plays the game with extreme toughness, and he has more than enough shift and speed to win with his tools too at the next level. It’s hard not to reminisce on peak Antonio Brown when you watch Zay Flowers play football. Flowers was uber productive in college with over 700 receiving yards each season from his sophomore to senior year, including a 78 receptions/1,077 yards/12 TDs line to cap off his career at Boston College. His numbers could have been far better too; BC’s quarterback play in 2021 was genuinely hard to watch, and Flowers faced a lot of double coverage as a senior. This era of player empowerment in college football is mostly a good thing, but I can still love and appreciate that Flowers turned down NIL transfer deals to return to college for personal and team betterment. Everything you watch and read about Flowers indicates that he’s an ultimate buy-in guy, and I think he’ll pay immediate dividends for whatever team drafts him. He’s probably my WR1 in this class, and if he outperforms expectations at the Combine – which is possible – then he’s a lock for that spot.

Grade: Mid First Round

Pro Comp: Emmanuel Sanders

Games Watched:

• North Carolina 2020
• Clemson 2021
• Louisville 2021
• Rutgers 2022
• Wake Forest 2022
• Syracuse 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: North Carolina

Position: WR

Year: Junior

The Good: Downs is a great athlete. He’ll probably crush the 3-cone and the jumping drills at the Combine, and I expect he’ll run well too – particularly in his 10-yard split. Downs gets to his top speed in an instant. He’s at his best working vertically, where he can lose safeties at the last level of the defense. Downs is particularly effective in lighter personnel packages where the patience in his routes complements the other WRs, and he’s put some highlight reel routes on tape as well. 

The Bad: Downs’ athleticism and quickness doesn’t translate well into his general route running. He wastes a remarkable amount of movement when working to get open; more of his routes have unnecessary hitches in them than not. Against man coverage, Downs doesn’t possess much ability to physically separate. His recognition is also lacking at this stage, which shows up when he struggles to feel and sit in holes against zone coverages. Downs isn’t THAT short at 5’10” but he plays small with a limited catch radius, and he certainly plays as light as he is at 175lbs. He’s a total non-factor as a blocker; I’m not even sure if he’s playable on early downs right now. Downs is generally effective with the ball in his hands but he’s not elusive enough to handle screens and handoffs in the NFL given his inability to break tackles.

The Bottom Line: If it hasn’t already come through clearly, I’m not a fan of Downs as a prospect. His plus athleticism and strong college production will get him drafted in the earlier rounds, but I find his skillset ultimately replaceable – which isn’t great given his lack of size. I think he needs maturation from his current game to crack a starting NFL offense, including in his route running, timing, and general on-field demeanor – he wasn’t a willing blocker and took his share of off plays at UNC. I wouldn’t be surprised if Downs’ greatest impact in his first couple of NFL seasons is as a punt returner.

Grade: Fourth Round

Pro Comp: Richie James

Games Watched:

• Virginia 2021
• Florida State 2021
• Miami 2021
• Florida A&M 2022
• Pitt 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Tennessee

Position: WR

Year: Junior

The Good: Hyatt is FAST fast. He’ll likely clock a 40 in the low 4.3 range, and that speed translates well to the field. Hyatt flies off the line and only accelerates from there, so he’ll keep safeties honest on every snap. Hyatt has good length for a burner and is nimble too, so he’s not exactly a one-trick pony who’ll run go routes on every play. I like his competitive fire too. Still, it all comes back to his killer vertical ability. In a league where Marquez Valdes-Scantling got a 3yr/$30mil contract to run fast in a straight line, Hyatt will be a commodity.

The Bad: Hyatt does profile similarly to recent first round flameouts at the WR position in that he’s tall and fast…and it might stop there. The tops of his routes are unrefined at this stage, and it honestly looks like he’s experimenting with stuff on the fly in his releases and routes. Tennessee’s offense is simplified to a strength, but at times when they’d mix in timing-based pass concepts Hyatt didn’t look as natural. He’s long-limbed, which is good for his catch radius but bad for his ability to stay upright with the ball in his hands.

The Bottom Line: Hyatt is funny because he won the Biletnikoff Award as the best wide receiver in college football, yet he’s also one of the more incomplete evaluations in this whole process. He’s a total one-year wonder; he was a non-starter with 500 combined yards across his freshman and sophomore seasons. Tennessee’s offensive scheme also generates friendly looks and busted coverages for its receivers on the regular. Like, I watched that Alabama game where Hyatt scored 5 TDs and I didn’t choose one of them for his ‘Plays That Matter’ thread (linked below). There is too much unknown for me to endorse Hyatt as a first rounder, but his vertical ability is nearly a lock to convert at the NFL level and I believe he can do just enough else to justify himself as a good player in the league.

Grade: Second Round

Pro Comp: Kenny Stills

Games Watched:

• Alabama 2022
• UT Martin 2022
• Kentucky 2022
• Georgia 2022
• Missouri 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Ohio State

Position: WR

Year: Junior

The Good: Smith-Njigba (JSN) is an outstanding route runner and he gets open more with craft than raw talent – which is how I’d prefer it. He’s a pain in the ass for defenses when someone is assigned to covering him in space, and he gets those opportunities with regular slot alignments and pre-snap motions. He’s bendy and patient, which both help him in setting up DBs really well. JSN by no means is devoid of talent that leads to wins at the WR position; his footwork is impressive and you see it in his high-caliber releases. When the ball is in his hands, he’s feisty and slippery so he should provide value via YAC in the NFL. JSN is a physical competitor too. He consistently works back to the QB, and he’s a good blocker in the run game.

The Bad: Smith-Njigba doesn’t possess top-end speed – he’ll likely clock a 40 in the 4.6 range – and he’s not particularly explosive. JSN’s hands are fine but his catch radius is limited; QBs really need to put the ball on him. I was surprised to watch how JSN handled zone defenses in his game film; it was common for him to miss the softest spots of zones or run through them. I mentioned in the previous section that Smith-Njigba is good in YAC situations – and that’s true – but he isn’t the type to make a tackler miss in tight spots. It also needs to be mentioned that he missed the 2022 season almost entirely due to injury. Notre Dame clamped down on Smith-Njigba in OSU’s 2022 opener – the closest thing to a full game he played against a legit opponent last season.  

The Bottom Line: Smith-Njigba is definitely going to be one of the tougher evaluations of this NFL Draft process. While I’d contend that the NFL Combine matters less for WRs than it does for most other positions, it matters nonetheless and it speaks volumes that JSN might be better off skipping certain drills. I’m also not sure how to measure his production. Like, he’s a former five-star recruit and has a season of 95 receptions/1,606 yards/9 TDs on the back of his football card. But two of his three college seasons were totally absent, and in that other season with the massive stats he lined up next to Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave with a potential first overall pick in CJ Stroud throwing the ball. Like I said, he’s confusing to evaluate. Still, if I had to wager I’d predict that JSN is ultimately the first WR drafted this year. That has plenty to do with the overall lackluster caliber of this WR class, but it’s also possible to see a Cooper Kupp-esque player in JSN. I personally wouldn’t go that far, but it only takes one team.

Grade: Mid First Round

Pro Comp: Jarvis Landry

Games Watched:

• Oregon 2021
• Penn State 2021
• Nebraska 2021
• Utah 2021
• Notre Dame 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: TCU

Position: WR

Year: Junior

The Good: Johnston is one of the best recruits that TCU has landed in recent years, and it’s easy to see why. At 6’4”, 215lbs with a 40-yard dash that could clock beneath 4.40, Johnston is the total package of size and speed. He’s plenty physical and will likely be one of the top jumpers at the Combine, though Johnston isn’t another bulky cyborg receiver who can’t turn like DK Metcalf or Denzel Mims. He has impressive feet for his size and has high-quality releases all over on the field on his tape. Johnston could profile as a power slot WR, but he’s at his best lined up outside where he can blow by press coverage and work a tight sideline. Once the ball is in his hands, Johnston is a tackle breaker and YAC machine. He’ll continue to get a steady dose of screen passes in the NFL. 

The Bad: Johnston’s hands are mediocre. There are enough drops on his tape to question his reliability, and even when Johnston does catch the ball it often doesn’t look as smooth as it should. He struggles to catch through contact too; he’s not the contested catch winner that you’d expect given his size. Johnston needs to improve at working towards the ball too, both when the ball is in the air and when plays break down to help out his QB. He too frequently lets the ball fall to him rather than high pointing it. Johnston is a good route runner, particularly on vertical routes, but his double moves will need to become more convincing to reach the next level as a deep threat. Once the ball is in his hands, Johnston can be lackadaisical with it; he had a costly fumble in the Big 12 Championship Game.

The Bottom Line: Even if this WR class is subpar compared to previous years, Johnston is a clear first round talent. His profile is too enticing and his production was plenty good enough to go along with it. His stats make him look like a one-year wonder, but that’s far from the truth. TCU was just that bad offensively until 2022. Despite reaching the National Championship Game this past season, the Horned Frogs still didn’t unleash Johnston to the degree that some other powerhouse programs would have. There is some blame there to assign to Johnston himself; he definitely can stand to be more consistent. If he remains this type of WR in the NFL – 60 receptions for over 1,000 yards with one of the highest yards per catch figures – then he’d be a valuable field-tilting weapon. But if Johnston cleans up the finer elements of his game, improves with field awareness and channels more of his general competitiveness into an alpha mentality, then he could become a legit WR1 in the league.

Grade: Mid First Round

Pro Comp: Demaryius Thomas

Games Watched:

• West Virginia 2021
• Kansas State 2021
• Kansas 2022
• Oklahoma State 2022
• Kansas State 2022
• Michigan 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Virginia Tech (2019-2020), Tennessee (2021-2022)

Position: QB

Year: Redshirt Senior

The Good: In some years’ QB classes – including last year – Hooker would be the best pure thrower in the group. He’s very accurate with superb ball placement, and he throws to the intermediate areas of the field on a pretty line and the deep areas with proper loft. He might be the best deep passer in this Draft, and whoever drafts him will likely aim to take advantage of that skill right away. Hooker is just generally smooth and operates extremely quickly. He stands tall in the pocket, has a beautiful release, and by all accounts crushed his interviews at the Senior Bowl. He certainly has the look of a franchise quarterback.

The Bad: Part of Hooker’s look is that of a total statue in the pocket. There isn’t much pre-snap operation in his game right now and he can tend to lock onto his first read, so when defenses mess with that then Hooker has a tendency to freeze up. He’s mechanically dependent, which isn’t much of an issue when he has blocking in front of him and receivers getting open. It’s just one facet of many where Hooker lacks creativity though. Hooker needs his whole body to work in line to get enough juice on the ball, and he rarely completes passes whenever he breaks the pocket. Hooker ran with the ball a good amount in college but I don’t see that as much a part of his game in the NFL, especially after tearing his ACL. He obviously had a stellar final season at Tennessee, but his showdown against Georgia left a lot to be desired.

The Bottom Line: Josh Heupel has built an offensive juggernaut at Tennessee, which unfortunately does make it a bit harder to evaluate his players independent of the ideal surroundings. There are constantly guys wide open all over the field, and there are a good amount of snap throws built into the scheme that inflate stats as well. Still, I have some confidence that Hooker is independently a solid quarterback almost purely on the basis of his right arm. He wasn’t exactly a world beater at Tennessee like his numbers and record would indicate, and I don’t expect him to be one in the NFL either. But if a team is looking for a game-ready passer for its system – assuming Hooker is healthy by the start of the season – then he could be that guy. It could easily be construed as a negative that Hooker has already turned 25, but it feels like a case is emerging that seasoned QB prospects are better suited for rookie contracts than their younger counterparts. Hooker could make for an intriguing alternative to, say, signing Jimmy Garoppolo for any team picking near the bottom of Round 1 or top half of Round 2.

Grade: Second Round

Pro Comp: Derek Carr

Games Watched:

• South Carolina 2021
• Alabama 2021
• Florida 2022
• LSU 2022
• Alabama 2022
• Georgia 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]