Category: NFL

NFL

NFL Draft Profile: JJ McCarthy

Posted on by PJ Moran

School: Michigan

Position: QB

Year: Junior

The Good: JJ McCarthy, beyond being a National Championship QB, is super quick and twitchy yet with an extremely smooth delivery of the football – a good combo! His sense of timing is generally excellent and his processing might be off the charts for only recently having turned 21 years old. Along those lines, McCarthy mostly operated as a facilitator at Michigan – and he is very good at making the play call work – but he can snap into playmaker mode too. He’s hyper athletic, instinctual, and can really scoot; he’s a chain mover who’s effective on rollouts. McCarthy might not have the top arm in this class, but he’s plenty capable of airing it out. He has enough arm to hit holes down the field and can throw deep on a line. McCarthy has a good amount of creativity in his bag too, and it was great to see him take more control of Michigan’s offense in 2023.

The Bad: Despite having a zippy and solid enough arm for the NFL, McCarthy’s arm talent isn’t anything special for a first-round prospect. Some stuff is probably fixable with time – and McCarthy definitely should expect to start his NFL career on the bench – like often setting too wide of a base and misfiring because of it. But most of McCarthy’s drawbacks as a thrower are likely who he is as a player, sans incredible coaching or him bulking up a ton. He just doesn’t have the most natural feel as a passer; his ball placement is generally inconsistent and he needs to develop more touch too. McCarthy doesn’t exactly possess flick-of-the-wrist raw arm strength either, which is part of the reason that he’s a suspect deep ball thrower. While I’ve covered that McCarthy is truly an elite athlete for the position, his jumpiness can backfire at times. He can definitely push it as a scrambling, backyard football type. And for all of Michigan’s accolades with McCarthy under center, he really wasn’t very good in the biggest games. McCarthy threw two pick-sixes in the 2022 CFP semifinal where TCU defenders sat and read his eyes, and then his tape was rough in the 2023 CFP semifinal vs. Alabama; they really were able to accentuate his flaws.

The Bottom Line: JJ McCarthy is a tantalizing prospect; that much isn’t a media creation. With another year of seasoning, he’d likely become the favorite to be the next first overall pick. He’s an ideal QB fit for a West Coast based offense, so the Shanahan Tree teams might be all over him as the next project to groom. McCarthy often does mirror Brock Purdy at his best which, say what you will about Purdy, is a level that gets votes for NFL MVP in the right offense. The flip side is that McCarthy also often mirrors Zach Wilson; there are A LOT of similarities between what Wilson was a prospect and what McCarthy is as a prospect now. I liked Wilson quite a bit more at the time; he had a way better arm, but still…look how that’s turned out. Like Wilson at BYU, it’s fair to wonder how McCarthy might fare without an elite offensive line, let alone Roman Wilson, Cornelius Johnson, Colston Loveland, AJ Barner, Blake Corum, and Donovan Edwards too. All of that factored together, my comp for McCarthy is neither Purdy nor Wilson; McCarthy is more athletic than them and has had more pro-style exposure too, but the more lowly glimpses from both of them that you see in McCarthy are also too glaring to ignore.

Grade: Mid First Round

Pro Comp: Kyler Murray

Games Watched:

  • Hawaii 2022
  • Maryland 2022
  • Iowa 2022
  • Penn State 2022
  • Michigan State 2022
  • Illinois 2022
  • Ohio State 2022
  • TCU 2022 (CFP Semi)
  • Rutgers 2023
  • Minnesota 2023
  • Nebraska 2023
  • Indiana 2023
  • Penn State 2023
  • Ohio State 2023
  • Alabama 2023 (CFP Semi)
  • Washington 2023 (CFP Final)

Plays That Matter [LINK]

0
NFL, Read

NFL Draft Profile: Jayden Daniels

Posted on by PJ Moran

School: Arizona State / LSU

Position: QB

Year: Senior

The Good: Daniels is a dual-threat quarterback in the purest definition. His pure speed is real – I expect him to run the 40 in the 4.4s range – and he’s a creative and silky runner too; Daniels just effortlessly glides by defenders in his way and can turn any given scramble into a housecall. As a passer, Daniels throws with solid zip and is at his most (relatively) accurate when throwing deep. Daniels’ recognition of coverages is there and he’s good about not putting the ball in harm’s way. In his 2023 Heisman campaign, the prototypical QB stuff turned way up for Daniels.

The Bad: That last sentence might not make the most sense without context, so here it is: Daniels did not have a nearly firm enough grasp on the QB position required at the NFL level through his fourth year of college ball (and his first at LSU). Like I wrote, it got better as a super senior, but Daniels still has a bunch of red flags as a prospect. His short-armed release jumps out immediately on tape – which creates mediocre short accuracy – as does his wiry build that’s going to get him tossed around in the NFL. The concerns only heighten for Daniels as you watch more and more of his tape. Simply put, Daniels’ general ability to read the field is very suspect. He can hold onto the ball too long in the pocket and his pocket movement is too dramatic as well. When it comes to arm talent, Daniels’ raw arm strength is subpar by pro standards, and he cannot currently deliver on a full arsenal of throws either. Even with some grace for QB prospects in tape study, it’s hard not to take note of Daniels’ quantity of flat-out bad misses on throws.

The Bottom Line: I understand why Daniels will go in Round 1 of the Draft; he’s fresh off a season with 40 touchdown passes and is truly a killer runner for the position. Still, it needs to be said that Daniels isn’t a Mike Vick/Lamar Jackson “Houdini” type of QB runner. In the passing game, Daniels basically only took what was drawn up or right in front of him, and I definitely cannot say I love that we’ve seen Daniels at the age of an NFL rookie be merely “ok” in college – whether the full 2022 LSU season or against better SEC defenses that were able to achieve some containment against him in 2023. You cannot pump up Daniels’ 2023 stat line without acknowledging that he threw to two bona fide stud wideouts in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr, and LSU was willing to run the same routes over and over again for them until defenses slowed them down – hint: they never did. At the end of the day, it boils down to that Daniels probably has the most alarming vision I’ve ever evaluated for a first-round QB prospect in my years of doing this, and I can’t place a Round 1 recommendation when he’s carrying that designation.

Grade: Second Round

Pro Comp: Kordell Stewart

Games Watched:

  • Stanford 2021
  • USC 2021
  • Florida State 2022
  • Mississippi State 2022
  • Tennessee 2022
  • Alabama 2022
  • Georgia 2022 (SEC Championship)
  • Florida State 2023
  • Mississippi State 2023
  • Arkansas 2023
  • Ole Miss 2023
  • Missouri 2023
  • Auburn 2023
  • Alabama 2023
  • Florida 2023

Plays That Matter [LINK]

0
NFL, Read

NFL Draft Profile: Drake Maye

Posted on by PJ Moran

School: UNC

Position: QB

Year: Redshirt Sophomore

The Good: A 6’4, 230lbs, 21 year-old QB who declares for the NFL Draft is going to tempt NFL decision makers as long as humans inhabit the earth. Maye has two full seasons of big production under his belt; he was the 2022 ACC Player of the Year behind a 38:7 TD:INT ratio, and then he backed it up in 2023 with similar play. Maye can throw the crap out of a football; the ball glides out of his right hand, he delivers on deep balls with consistency, and he can really layer the ball to all parts of the field. Maye nails multiple big-time throws every game he plays, and it helps that he can do it from both within and outside of the pocket. It’s a real strength of Maye’s game that he can regularly create his ideal throwing lanes. Physically, there are minimal concerns with Maye; he has proven that he can survive a bevy of hits, and he throws through contact well, too. Mentally, Maye is reactionary, situationally aware, and mostly a good decision maker on where to go with the football. 

The Bad: Maye comes into the NFL with some mechanical issues, mainly that he has a slow release by pro standards and that his pronounced throwing motion can lead to spiked passes and straight-up misses. He’s pretty robotic working through his progressions, too. I’ve already covered that Maye can deliver haymakers to defenses with his arm, but the uglier side of that ability is Maye’s bad habit of passing up singles for home run swings. Even in the most aggressive of offenses, Maye will need to adjust his ratio of taking the high-percentage plays in front of him. I can’t say I’m a fan of Maye as a runner, either. He’s a more rugged runner than a QB should be and his evasiveness is average at best; frankly, Maye just isn’t a good enough runner to decide to run as much as he does. Hopefully that trend stays behind at Chapel Hill. Maybe more paramount than other concerns, though, is that Maye does not adjust for pressure well enough in general. He’s quick to drop his eyes, especially as he’s getting rattled, and his NFL coaches will need to get to work with him immediately on developing pre-snap plans. Maye currently plays too on the fly and can start off on the wrong read, and his anticipation isn’t all the way there yet, either. And while every quarterback is going to have an errant throw or down drive every so often, Maye is prone to bad quarters, halves, or even games.

The Bottom Line: I get the appeal in Drake Maye, I really do. And I’m not just hedging my evaluation as someone who is about to hit publish on a profile that’s lower on him as a prospect than the consensus. I’ll put it this way: my favorite team is the Giants, and I’d be delighted if they took him with the sixth overall pick. There’s a not-so-crazy future where Maye continues to ramp up his creativity as he matures and takes more control of his offense, leading him to becoming one of the best playmakers at the position in the league. The ultra optimistic comparison for Maye would be someone like Ben Roethlisberger. I’m coming into the clubhouse not feeling ultra optimistic about Maye’s NFL outcome, though. He still plays so young; the game moves fast for him and he just too often makes things too hard on himself. It’s fair to put in writing that Maye has middling accuracy, too. It all amounts to a combination that we’ve seen before in high-end QB prospects that flop. Not necessarily a prospect that quickly flames out of the league, but one whose team’s patience might run thin – especially as the league moves further in the directions towards more short stints for Head Coaches/GMs and more offenses that need accurate processors rather than superheroes at the position.

Grade: Mid First Round

Pro Comp: Sam Darnold

Games Watched:

  • App State 2022
  • Notre Dame 2022
  • Pitt 2022
  • Duke 2022
  • Wake 2022
  • Clemson 2022 (ACC Championship)
  • Oregon 2022 (Holiday Bowl)
  • South Carolina 2023
  • Minnesota 2023
  • Pitt 2023
  • Miami 2023
  • UVA 2023
  • Duke 2023
  • Clemson 2023

Plays That Matter [LINK]

0
NFL, Read

NFL Draft Profile: Caleb Williams

Posted on by PJ Moran

School: USC

Position: QB

Year: Junior

The Good: Caleb Williams, Heisman Trophy winner, can throw the football. He delivers the football with an absurd amount of torque behind it, and he’s not a one-trick pony, either. Williams has the full package in his arsenal; from the pocket, out of structure, multiple arm slots, with velocity or with touch – he can do it all and do it all at a high level. Williams really doesn’t miss much, and that’s especially impressive considering he routinely works his way from downfield to his checkdown option. For a gunslinger, Williams possesses strong short accuracy, and he’s a better athlete than his profile might suggest too. Williams is natural to the position and often has the franchise quarterback look; he displays patience from the pocket and yet can move the chains with his legs whenever the situation calls for it. It’s important to remember that Williams is still young too despite being very publicly on the football scene for three years now. He should only improve in certain areas with coaching and age; even from 2022 to 2023, Williams’ footwork showed positive development.

The Bad: Williams’ circus style of play at USC made for a good highlight reel, but it doesn’t reflect the best in his evaluation. It would be one thing if Williams was a Kyler Murray level of athlete, but that’s not the case. I’m not positive that Williams is NFL level of twitchy, so his scramble drills and narrow sack escapes won’t fly as much as a pro. Williams’ timing needs to improve, too. He was often able to get away with it in the Pac-12, but Williams almost never releases once he hits the back of his drop, and he’s not particularly anticipatory either. Williams will also need to get to work in cleaning up his lower half mechanics, which are too often sloppy and lead to his wobbly throws and airmails. He’s also not the most consistent thrower on the run.

The Bottom Line: It’s weird to write this about a college QB as high-profile as Caleb Williams with a head coach who probably could have jumped to the NFL at his own choosing over the last few years, but there remains a good amount of projection to his NFL Draft profile. Lincoln Riley might be a QB whisperer who produces Heisman winners and aerial offenses, but his coaching and scheming did no favors towards Williams’ pro evaluation. USC had a headset dependent offense with so much lazy quick game, and even at Williams’ college peak things were so often either 100% scripted or 100% improvisational. I wish I had more proof when it comes to Williams’ ability to diagnose coverages or adjust his eyes on the fly with what defenses are giving him. His surroundings also imploded so badly at times that it visibility rattled Williams; he does deserve some blame for questionable decision making in the face of adversity and a bad habit of quickly going into hero-ball mode when things get tough, but man…it was legitimately hard at times to watch USC tape and not feel for Williams. He might be the rare case of a first overall pick whose circumstances actually improve upon reaching the NFL. He’s a scrappy player and has the size and moxie to take literal and figurative hits early on in his career and come out on the other side all the better for it. Williams is a gifted passer with star potential within the right offense.

Grade: Top 10 Pick

Pro Comp: Matt Stafford

Games Watched:

  • Utah 2022
  • Cal 2022
  • ND 2022
  • UCLA 2022
  • Utah 2022 (Pac-12 Championship)
  • Tulane 2022 (Cotton Bowl)
  • San Jose State 2023
  • Nevada 2023
  • Arizona State 2023
  • Arizona 2023
  • Notre Dame 2023
  • Cal 2023
  • Washington 2023
  • Oregon 2023

Plays That Matter [LINK]

0
NFL, Read

NFL 2023 Season Predictions (with Team Win Total Over/Unders)

Posted on by PJ Moran

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys

Win Total: 10

Pick: Over

This defense should be outrageously good. Micah Parsons is a First Team All-Pro lock, and I’m not sure what was going on in the world that allowed Dallas to trade a Round 5 pick for Stephon Gilmore on a 1yr/$10mil deal so under the radar? I don’t have much of a Dak take, but I think a nuclear Year 4 for CeeDee Lamb could be in the cards. They could lean on him to a degree not seen in the league recently outside of Cooper Kupp for the Rams.

Philadelphia Eagles

Win Total: 11.5

Pick: Under

Not trying to suggest anything too crazy here…11 wins is probably what I’d guess for Philly. They will be good, and the offense should be extremely good. Still though, tougher schedule, real year-over-year division trends, losing both coordinators – even if one is a dope – and so on. More than any of that though, this is a team that can’t afford much depth with massive contracts and rolled over cap hits. They stayed remarkably healthy last year, even though this isn’t exactly a young core of key players. Their roster is going to get tested more heavily this season, especially on defense. They lost multiple every-down players, and they have nothing at DB after their starters. 

New York Giants

Win Total: 7.5

Pick: Over

I get this relatively low line set by Vegas…the Giants caught a ton of breaks last year and way overperformed the general level of talent on the roster. Even if the Giants aren’t as lucky on third downs, their hyper efficiency on offense in 2022 regresses back to the mean, etc., I think this coaching staff and the in-house personnel improvements on both sides of the ball are getting overlooked. Kayvon Thibodeaux might have a Pro Bowl level of Year 2 jump in him, which would give Big Blue one of the best defensive fronts in the league.

Washington Commanders

Win Total: 6.5

Pick: Over

Washington’s defense is good, even if last season was probably the best year to capitalize on an underrated defense for them. I like Sam Howell and don’t expect him to hold them back, but this division should be really good again and there isn’t enough offensive ammo on this team after Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. Ron Rivera definitely holds them back too.

NFC NORTH

Detroit Lions

Win Total: 9.5

Pick: Over

America is too excited about this team – have you seen their pass-catchers after Amon-Ra St. Brown? Down to having some of the same coaches, it feels like Detroit is trying to emulate the late era Brees/Payton Saints teams, but with like 80% of the talent. Still, I’ll peg the Lions to win this division. The offensive line should be dominant…Penei Sewell season is upon us. And, sticking to the theme of those Saints teams, if any wideout is gonna pull a 2019 Michael Thomas this season, it’s the Sun God.

Minnesota Vikings

Win Total: 8.5

Pick: Under

Same deal with the Giants, Vegas is showing some disrespect to Minnesota’s 13-win 2022 season. I’m with it here more though. Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, and Danielle Hunter will still carry this team to some wins they probably have no business winning, but this just isn’t all that good of a roster. Brian Flores is gonna have to work some magic with that defense. The offensive line has the chance to totally disintegrate too.

Green Bay Packers

Win Total: 7.5

Pick: Over

I should be more excited about the first Packers season in a decade-and-a-half without Aaron Rodgers, but I just get the sense that this will be a really boring team. Jordan Love has largely been miscast as some ball of clay molding on Green Bay’s bench for three years. He’s got a big arm, but he’s not the biggest talent. If he succeeds, he’ll look more like Ryan Tannehill. Green Bay builds teams well enough to avoid disaster seasons, but I just get .500 vibes here.

Chicago Bears

Win Total: 7.5

Pick: Under

7.5 wins? Did we forget that Chicago had the worst record in the league last year just because they traded away the first overall pick? You can get incremental improvement from Justin Fields as a passer – and he needs WAY more than that for Chicago to have a winning record – better trench play, and a step up from the league’s worst defense to an average defense…and this team still would slot around 6 or 7 wins. Take a deep breath, Bears fans.

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons

Win Total: 8.5

Pick: Over

This offense was good last year with Marcus Mariota basically unable to complete the complicated play known as the forward pass. Enter Bijan Robinson and Year 2 Drake London, and yeah I think the Dirty Birds could cook. Blame Arthur Smith all you want for Kyle Pitts’ fantasy performance, but he’s a good coach. I have mixed feelings on Desmond Ridder and this defense, but I’ll confidently take Atlanta’s over with them sharing a division with two bad teams.

New Orleans Saints

Win Total: 9.5

Pick: Under

2023 should be more of the same for these recent Saints teams. Derek Carr is an upgrade over Andy Dalton, but this is a team defined by good rosters that are held back from being great rosters because of kick-the-can salary cap management. The coaching is really uninspiring too.

Carolina Panthers

Win Total: 7.5

Pick: Under

I supported Carolina’s aggressive trade up to the first overall pick – even if I would’ve taken a different QB (CJ Stroud) – but I hated just about everything else about their personnel decisions this offseason. The weapons remain terrible, the offensive line is vulnerable to a huge step back, and the defense merely looks fine. I like the coaching staff that they’ve assembled in Carolina, but they aren’t miracle workers. This is an easy under for me.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Win Total: 6.5

Pick: Under

Kyle Trask couldn’t beat out Baker Mayfield in the QB battle, and Tampa retained Todd Bowles. They might as well show Caleb Williams highlights on the jumbotron during games.

NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks

Win Total 8.5

Pick: Over

Preseason predictions are largely a guessing game, but one of the few methods I have in picking “Over” teams is identifying coordinators who are potential head coaches by next season, and I see Shane Waldron as one of them. I believe in the pairing of him and Geno Smith, the receivers are elite, the run game should be awesome, and the line might take a massive step forward. They have talent and youth all over the defense, and now Bobby Wagner is back in the middle of it. Smash this over.

San Francisco 49ers

Win Total: 10.5

Pick: Under

I’m not fading the 49ers; I just think the regular season could be a bit of a slog for them. Kyle Shanahan has won over 10 games just twice in six years. I wouldn’t be shocked if Sam Darnold takes over for Brock Purdy at some point during the season, and this offensive line could be really bad outside of Trent Williams. Still, there’s just way too much talent on this team. Can already see it coming to fruition where the 10-7 49ers grab the last Wild Card spot and are the “nobody wants to play them in January” team.

Los Angeles Rams

Win Total: 6.5

Pick: Under

Stafford, Kupp, and Donald still have juice. I have total faith in Sean McVay overseeing a rebuild. This roster is just so, so bad, and the Rams seem more committed to the future than the present. I think they’ll be scrappy, but this might be a team that sells at the trade deadline then plays a lot of Stetson Bennett in the second half of the season.

Arizona Cardinals

Win Total: 4.5

Pick: Over

They are gonna be terrible. I could not be less of a believer in Jonathan Gannon. But come on, 4.5 wins is so low. Gannon is such a dork and Kyler Murray suddenly has a lot to prove, so I could definitely see this team picking up some unnecessary “culture” wins late in the season.

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills

Win Total: 10.5

Pick: Over

Josh Allen is so absurdly good. He played through a fairly serious elbow injury in 2022 and only managed to go 13-3 with 4,300 passing yards and 35 TDs. (Tack on nearly 800 yards and 7 TDs on the ground.) He did that with a mediocre offensive line, run game, and group of pass-catchers after Stefon Diggs. I’m not betting against Allen going into his Age 27 season after Buffalo allocated resources to better his surroundings.

New England Patriots

Win Total: 7.5

Pick: Over

I don’t care much for Mac Jones, Bill O’Brien, or any of the weapons in the Patriots’ passing game, but this is one of my favorite ‘Over’ picks. New England has beef up front and they are going to pound the rock, and this is my pick for the best defense in the league. They are freaking loaded and deep. And as if Bill Belichick needed help on that side of the ball, now he has a true CB1 type in Christian Gonzalez. (Gonzalez was my #2 overall prospect in last year’s class. You can read all of my rookie profiles here.)

New York Jets

Win Total: 9.5

Pick: Over

I’m not over the moon with the Jets’ makeup and this division should be quite good, but they just have too much invested to fall short of double-digit wins IMO. They won 7 games last year with a rotation of Zach Wilson/Mike White/Joe Flacco at QB. It’s kinda that simple. Even if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t go full 2020-2021 Sith Lord mode again, that upgrade alone is worth a few extra wins for the Jets.

Miami Dolphins

Win Total: 9.5

Pick: Under

Honestly, I don’t feel great about putting Miami last in the AFC East. I believe in Mike McDaniel and that an upright Tua is an above-average NFL QB. Their front seven should be pretty great too. There just needs to be a fourth-place team though – a team that will likely finish beneath .500 – and I think Miami clearly carries the biggest risk of implosion. Losing Jalen Ramsey to the IR isn’t a great start for them.

AFC NORTH

Cincinnati Bengals

Win Total 11.5

Pick: Over

America collectively faded the 2022 Bengals as the typical team that takes a step back the year after losing in the Super Bowl…and they proceeded to win 12 games, the AFC North, and two playoff games. And now their O/U is even lower, even after they only played 16 games in 2022 because of the Damar Hamlin incident? They retained their coaches and a bunch of talent, upgraded the offensive line, and have multiple young studs in the secondary. What am I missing here?

Pittsburgh Steelers

Win Total: 8.5

Pick: Over

The 2022 Steelers went 9-8 with Kenny Pickett & Mitch Trubisky combining for 11 TDs and 14 INTs. The 2022 Steelers went 9-8 with Najee Harris averaging 3.8 YPC on 272 attempts. The 2022 Steelers went 9-8 with 3 of their primary offensive linemen being replaced this offseason.The 2022 Steelers went 9-8 with TJ Watt missing half of the season. This is a bad O/U line.

Baltimore Ravens

Win Total: 10.5

Pick: Under

Look, I’m excited for this team. Baltimore has finally brought in an OC who’ll treat Lamar like the professional quarterback that he is, and Zay Flowers + Odell Beckham will be fun. But Todd Monken isn’t Bill Walsh, Zay Flowers isn’t Antonio Brown (yet), and OBJ isn’t 2016 OBJ. And let’s be real, Lamar is a bona fide Top 10 QB who you’ll probably get at his best for around half of the season. The defense should be good – Kyle Hamilton is on All-Pro watch – but the pass rush looks surprisingly thin and the Ravens pieced their CB group together via the waiver wire. Let’s just slow the roll here.

Cleveland Browns

Win Total: 9.5

Pick: Under

…I don’t get this one at all. We’re giving the Cleveland Browns a realistic scenario where they’ll go over .500 and still hit the under? Did we not collectively witness how grotesque the Stefanski/Watson pairing looked last season? (The preseason reports aren’t much better.) Myles Garrett might be the best defensive player in the league but overall this defense isn’t special. In this division, easy under pick for me.

AFC SOUTH

Tennessee Titans

Win Total: 7.5

Pick: Over

Tennessee will probably get more action on futures than any other team for me. The Titans basically played half of the 2022 season without a proper quarterback and still won 7 games. I’m not betting unders on a Mike Vrabel football team, especially one that plays in a division that again looks awful on paper, plus one that I think has a bigly underappreciated roster. I think Tannehill, Henry, and Hopkins each have some juice left, and Treylon Burks and Chig Okonkwo can make shit happen. But it’s mostly this defense…the front seven is LETHAL. Seriously might be the best one in the NFL, and I’ll ride with any team with a unit that can make that claim.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Win Total: 9.5

Pick: Under

I just have a bad feeling about how the Jaguars are building this team around Trevor Lawrence on his rookie deal. Yeah, the buy-low acquisition of Calvin Ridley is good and fun, but this offensive line might be REALLY bad. There are some big names on defense, but there are also some bloated contracts and thin areas. I’ve made this comparison elsewhere – and I hope I’m wrong – but the vibes I get are Grigson-era Andrew Luck Colts teams. As awesome as Luck was, he never won more than 11 games in a season. (It’s easy to forget with their playoff win that Jacksonville, by the way, only won 9 games last year.) 

Houston Texans

Win Total: 6.5

Pick: Over

I like CJ Stroud. I like DeMeco Ryans. The offensive line is sneaky good. The defense at least has some young cornerstones in place. It’s definitely Year 1 of a rebuild, but it’s finally a proper rebuild in Houston, and I’ll bet on that in a bad division.

Indianapolis Colts

Win Total: 6.5

Pick: Under

Even if Anthony Richardson becomes immediate must-watch television, this is just a bad roster on both sides of the ball. It’s hard to see a path other than one of them dealing Jonathan Taylor before the deadline and going all-in for Marvin Harrison Jr. atop the 2024 Draft.

AFC WEST

Kansas City Chiefs

Win Total: 11.5

Pick: Over

The most games that Patrick Mahomes & Andy Reid have lost in their five seasons together is 5. Chris Jones’ holdout notwithstanding, this could be one of KC’s better defenses in this era too. Matt Nagy probably isn’t Eric Bieniemy, but what are we doing here?

Los Angeles Chargers

Win Total: 9.5

Pick: Over

You have my word that I shant place any season-long action on a Brandon Staley coached team, but 9.5 wins is really light. The Chargers won 10 games last year when Justin Herbert was playing with broken ribs, without his left tackle, and with an OC who didn’t know you can throw the ball beyond 5 yards in the air. I’m low on the other two teams in this division too, so yeah double-digit wins should be pretty easy as long as Herbert stays upright.

Denver Broncos

Win Total: 8.5

Pick: Under

Yeah, I’m out. I like Sean Payton too and think he can turn things around in Denver, but setting the line at .500 for him in Year 1 is AGGRESSIVE given what he’s inherited. I don’t think the Russell Wilson turnaround is coming and Payton might have a very short leash on him, and the rest of the offensive personnel is pretty mediocre too. The defense will probably take a natural step back from their 2022 highs too, so like I said, I’m out.

Las Vegas Raiders

Win Total: 6.5

Pick: Under

Don’t bet on the team with the coach who’s the overwhelming favorite to become the first coach fired during the season. Don’t bet on the team who waited until one week before the regular season to guarantee any money in the contract they gave to their starting QB that offseason. Wait, that’s the same team here? And they might have the worst defense in the NFL? Cool, cool, cool… (Raiders are my pick to “win” the Caleb Williams sweepstakes.)

NFC EAST: Cowboys

NFC NORTH: Lions

NFC SOUTH: Falcons

NFC WEST: Seahawks

WILD CARD 1: Eagles

WILD CARD 2: Giants

WILD CARD 3: 49ers

AFC EAST: Bills

AFC NORTH: Bengals

AFC SOUTH: Titans

AFC WEST: Chiefs

WILD CARD 1: Chargers

WILD CARD 2: Jets

WILD CARD 3: Patriots

AFCCG: Bengals over Bills

NFCCG: Seahawks over 49ers

Super Bowl: Bengals over Seahawks

MVP: Josh Allen

Offensive Player of the Year: CeeDee Lamb

Defensive Player of the Year: Fred Warner

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Bijan Robinson

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Christian Gonzalez

Coach of the Year: Pete Carroll

Walter Payton Man of the Year: Derrick Henry

0
NFL, Read

NFL Draft Profile: Joe Tippmann

Posted on by PJ Moran

School: Wisconsin

Position: OC

Year: Redshirt Junior

The Good: Joe Tippmann is another big prospect at center at 6’6″, 313lbs. Like many Wisconsin offensive linemen of years past, Tippmann has that Midwestern strength that he can channel throughout his sturdy base. Tippmann can absorb heavy contact lined up across from nose tackles. Tippmann consistently earns good pad level despite being 6’6”, and he possesses above-average general athleticism for an interior lineman.

The Bad: For a prospect who’s even getting some Round 1 buzz, Tippmann has a lot to work on. His hands need work; they too often miss and land outside the pads of defenders. I specified “general” athleticism above – like Tippmann appears fast and explosive enough – but I’m not sure how “functional” of an athlete he is. Tippmann doesn’t change direction nor slide his feet in pass protection well enough. He just looks too stiff and upright on tape too, and the results are iffy when Tippmann doesn’t immediately lock into engagement and he’s forced to instead reset then re-engage. I’d also like to see Tippmann deliver impact in his blocks as well as he absorbs it.

The Bottom Line: I…do not get the early round talk around Tippmann. It came out of freaking nowhere too; he wasn’t ranked on any consensus big boards at the start of this process. It’s not like Tippmann blew up the Combine either; he literally didn’t even test! And I’m sorry, I know that injuries can flare up and prospects want to perform drills at 100% only, but an early-declare IOL prospect skipping testing over this four-month process raises red flags for me. And on the field, I think there’s a chance I’d like Tippmann more at guard; he definitely has the size and tools to play there. But more than that, he didn’t appear in total command of his offensive line at center; I witnessed a few miscommunications transpire on tape that resulted in QB hits or sacks. So yeah, we have a probably-athletic and probably-versatile prospect with hit-and-miss tape at IOL here. That’s a draftable player, but closer to Day 3 than Day 1.

Grade: Fourth Round

Pro Comp: Graham Glasgow

Games Watched: 

  • Ohio State 2022
  • Michigan State 2022
  • Nebraska 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

0
NFL, Read

NFL Draft Profile: John Michael Schmitz

Posted on by PJ Moran

School: Minnesota

Position: OC

Year: Redshirt Senior

The Good: Center is one of the select few positions where you might want your NFL Draft pick to be on the older end with more game experience, especially if he’s an expected Week 1 starter. Well, John Michael Schmitz enrolled at Minnesota in 2017 and played 57 games for the Gophers. Schmitz is as in control, aware, and reactive as you’d like for your center; an offense can feel comfortable with every play starting with the ball in his hands. Athletically, Schmitz has good quickness. He can pin interior defensive lineman and land frontside blocks, and he’s a capable zone blocker in the run game. Schmitz has a nice sized frame, especially since he plays with good knee bend to offset his above-average height for the position. Moving forward, Schmitz converts at the second level at a good enough rate. There is absolutely zero concern over Schmitz’s football mentality either.

The Bad: The primary knock against Schmitz is that he’s a pretty limited athlete. Like I already covered, he’s definitely quick enough, but Schmitz is otherwise slow and isn’t too gifted with balance. Schmitz will be on the lower end of the spectrum for general strength among NFL linemen once he’s drafted too; he can’t really discard dudes across from him, nor does he chip block with authority. Though he has average arm length, Schmitz doesn’t really play to it. He’s mediocre on combo blocks, and the same can be said about his general hand usage in pass protection.

The Bottom Line: John Michael Schmitz is a NFL center in waiting, through and through. He’s a better run blocker than pass blocker, though neither phase is a major strength but also not a major issue either; he’s just all-around solid. There’s obviously value in that and it justifies him as a draft pick in the top half of the NFL Draft. Every player has a chance to get better once he cracks the NFL, but Schmitz might be just about as maxed out as it gets. 

Grade: Third Round

Pro Comp: Chase Roullier

Games Watched: 

  • Ohio State 2021
  • Michigan State 2022
  • Illinois 2022
  • Senior Bowl

Plays That Matter [LINK]

0
NFL, Read

NFL Draft Profile: Keeanu Benton

Posted on by PJ Moran

School: Wisconsin

Position: DT

Year: Senior

The Good: Keeanu Benton certainly looks the part of an NFL defensive tackle at 6’4”, 310lbs, and he tested quite well at the Combine in the most relevant drills for DTs (above 80th percentile in both the broad jump and 3-cone). That burst shows on tape; Benton has a very good get-off, particularly for a dude who regularly aligned at nose tackle. He has strong hands, and he’s able to get downhill to cut off lanes on stretch runs. As a pass rusher, Benton is a very slippery gap shooter. The highest end of Benton’s plays look like they belong on a Quinnen Williams highlight reel.

The Bad: Benton’s size almost works against his play style. As a pass rusher who wins by quickly getting under the inside shoulders of linemen, he loses the pad level battle quite a bit and seldom wins with power. Benton really needs to diversify his pass rush arsenal and have more intention with his hands, because the physical advantages that he had in the Big 10 won’t exist to nearly the same degree in the NFL. And I say all of that to then say that Benton is better as a pass rusher than a run stopper. His contact balance isn’t strong and he can’t really take on double teams; he’s not playing over the center in the NFL like he did at Wisconsin. Benton also should hold his ground better for a heavier DT, and he’s generally slow to get off blocks.

The Bottom Line: Based on his accolades, athletic profile, and highlights, I expected to come out of Benton’s evaluation way higher on him than I actually am. I get why a team will likely pick him in the Top 50; his best plays truly have the look of an elite player and he’s a playmaker at a position where many of his peers just put their helmets down and chug into double teams. I’d be excited to have him on my team at 3-tech as like the second or third dude on the defensive line, and he could be one of the few trench players with a respectable sack count. I just don’t think he’s all that versatile and I worry about him vs the run – his run defense tape against Ohio State was legitimately concerning. For Benton’s success, I hope that concern of mine is misplaced…because DTs weak against the run don’t see the field much in the NFL!

Grade: Third Round

Pro Comp: BJ Hill

Games Watched:

  • Clemson 2021
  • Wake 2021
  • West Virginia 2022
  • Tennessee 2022
  • UNC 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

0
NFL, Read

NFL Draft Profile: Steve Avila

Posted on by PJ Moran

School: TCU

Position: OG

Year: Redshirt Senior

The Good: Steve Avila, at 332lbs with just 33” arms, is exactly what you want your left guard to look like. And he’s got a pair of tiny hands (7th percentile) that are basically two mini boxing gloves at the ends of his arms. Avila’s hand usage is truly excellent for a prospect. They are quick with proper inside positioning and a strong grip, and he pops defenders with them when he lands his punch. Avila has all-around strength; he can stop and turn DTs against their will. He consistently wins pad level moving forward and he’s got a very heavy anchor setting backward.

The Bad: Avila, though relatively athletic, isn’t the most graceful mover. He’s a lesser player in the open field than in the muck of the trenches; he doesn’t pick up defenders quickly on the move and he doesn’t work a tightrope along the line of scrimmage. Though stout, Avila has some iffy balance, which shows on tape when he tips over more than you’d imagine for his build. For things to clean up in the pros, Avila will hit his back foot too hard in pass protection and get his cleats stuck in the turf from there. He can lock up his elbows too, with which his shorter arms is a recipe for giving up inside pressure.

The Bottom Line: Avila is a good prospect at offensive guard. He started at center for TCU in 2021 then at the Senior Bowl – where he looked very good – he took some more center reps, but I’ll say it again: Avila is a good prospect at OFFENSIVE GUARD. Don’t move him, don’t mess with him; just take the safe and reliable guard with NFL size and hands in Round 2 and be content with it. 

Grade: Second Round

Pro Comp: Mike Iupati

Games Watched:

  • Oklahoma 2022
  • Kansas 2022
  • Oklahoma State 2022
  • Michigan 2022
  • Senior Bowl

Plays That Matter [LINK]

0
NFL, Read

NFL Draft Profile: Kelee Ringo

Posted on by PJ Moran

School: Georgia

Position: CB

Year: Redshirt Sophomore

The Good: Cornerbacks rarely ever look like the Incredible Hulk, but Kelee Ringo fits that mold. He has an incredibly well-built frame and legit 4.36s 40 speed to go along with it. You hear a lot about GMs seeking out size/speed prospects in the NFL Draft, and Ringo is one of the top ones in this class. Ringo’s speed is more long than burst, so he’s an excellent defender on deep balls. Ringo isn’t versatile, but it’s ok in his case because he can only play on the outside. He’s clearly at his best playing as close to the sidelines as possible. He’s a solid tackler for a CB too.

The Bad: Man, if you’re reading this then I’ve assumed you’ve watched at least one Georgia football game over the last two years, so you know there’s some negative with Kelee Ringo. He can get absolutely cooked, especially off the line of scrimmage. His ability in press doesn’t match his muscular frame; Ringo actually has really short arms. Ringo has a ton of stiffness to him – perhaps one reason you don’t see more jacked CBs! He does not turn and flip easily, and it can look ugly when he needs to stop on a dime. In man coverage, Ringo makes it too hard on himself chasing down receivers sometimes. In zone coverage, well I don’t even need to go there. Ringo looks lost in it.

The Bottom Line: It’s easy to rip Kelee Ringo, and it’s not like I have a Round 1 grade on him or anything. And I’ll even admit that there’s a high bust factor for a prospect who’ll likely get drafted in the Top 50. But he’ll go that high for good reason: there just aren’t many players built like him at a premium position. He’s very young at 20 years old, yet he still might be the most battle-tested cornerback in this entire class. He won’t log much statistical production in the NFL and he’s probably not agile enough to ever become an elite player, but there’s a fairly high-percentage chance that Ringo is a serviceable CB2 on the outside in a man-heavy scheme early on in his career. 

Grade: Late Second Round / Early Third Round

Pro Comp: Fabian Moreau

Games Watched:

  • Kentucky 2021
  • Alabama 2021
  • Oregon 2022
  • Tennessee 2022
  • Ohio State 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

0