NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys
Win Total: 10
Pick: Over
This defense should be outrageously good. Micah Parsons is a First Team All-Pro lock, and I’m not sure what was going on in the world that allowed Dallas to trade a Round 5 pick for Stephon Gilmore on a 1yr/$10mil deal so under the radar? I don’t have much of a Dak take, but I think a nuclear Year 4 for CeeDee Lamb could be in the cards. They could lean on him to a degree not seen in the league recently outside of Cooper Kupp for the Rams.
Philadelphia Eagles
Win Total: 11.5
Pick: Under
Not trying to suggest anything too crazy here…11 wins is probably what I’d guess for Philly. They will be good, and the offense should be extremely good. Still though, tougher schedule, real year-over-year division trends, losing both coordinators – even if one is a dope – and so on. More than any of that though, this is a team that can’t afford much depth with massive contracts and rolled over cap hits. They stayed remarkably healthy last year, even though this isn’t exactly a young core of key players. Their roster is going to get tested more heavily this season, especially on defense. They lost multiple every-down players, and they have nothing at DB after their starters.
New York Giants
Win Total: 7.5
Pick: Over
I get this relatively low line set by Vegas…the Giants caught a ton of breaks last year and way overperformed the general level of talent on the roster. Even if the Giants aren’t as lucky on third downs, their hyper efficiency on offense in 2022 regresses back to the mean, etc., I think this coaching staff and the in-house personnel improvements on both sides of the ball are getting overlooked. Kayvon Thibodeaux might have a Pro Bowl level of Year 2 jump in him, which would give Big Blue one of the best defensive fronts in the league.
Washington Commanders
Win Total: 6.5
Pick: Over
Washington’s defense is good, even if last season was probably the best year to capitalize on an underrated defense for them. I like Sam Howell and don’t expect him to hold them back, but this division should be really good again and there isn’t enough offensive ammo on this team after Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. Ron Rivera definitely holds them back too.
NFC NORTH
Detroit Lions
Win Total: 9.5
Pick: Over
America is too excited about this team – have you seen their pass-catchers after Amon-Ra St. Brown? Down to having some of the same coaches, it feels like Detroit is trying to emulate the late era Brees/Payton Saints teams, but with like 80% of the talent. Still, I’ll peg the Lions to win this division. The offensive line should be dominant…Penei Sewell season is upon us. And, sticking to the theme of those Saints teams, if any wideout is gonna pull a 2019 Michael Thomas this season, it’s the Sun God.
Minnesota Vikings
Win Total: 8.5
Pick: Under
Same deal with the Giants, Vegas is showing some disrespect to Minnesota’s 13-win 2022 season. I’m with it here more though. Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, and Danielle Hunter will still carry this team to some wins they probably have no business winning, but this just isn’t all that good of a roster. Brian Flores is gonna have to work some magic with that defense. The offensive line has the chance to totally disintegrate too.
Green Bay Packers
Win Total: 7.5
Pick: Over
I should be more excited about the first Packers season in a decade-and-a-half without Aaron Rodgers, but I just get the sense that this will be a really boring team. Jordan Love has largely been miscast as some ball of clay molding on Green Bay’s bench for three years. He’s got a big arm, but he’s not the biggest talent. If he succeeds, he’ll look more like Ryan Tannehill. Green Bay builds teams well enough to avoid disaster seasons, but I just get .500 vibes here.
Chicago Bears
Win Total: 7.5
Pick: Under
7.5 wins? Did we forget that Chicago had the worst record in the league last year just because they traded away the first overall pick? You can get incremental improvement from Justin Fields as a passer – and he needs WAY more than that for Chicago to have a winning record – better trench play, and a step up from the league’s worst defense to an average defense…and this team still would slot around 6 or 7 wins. Take a deep breath, Bears fans.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons
Win Total: 8.5
Pick: Over
This offense was good last year with Marcus Mariota basically unable to complete the complicated play known as the forward pass. Enter Bijan Robinson and Year 2 Drake London, and yeah I think the Dirty Birds could cook. Blame Arthur Smith all you want for Kyle Pitts’ fantasy performance, but he’s a good coach. I have mixed feelings on Desmond Ridder and this defense, but I’ll confidently take Atlanta’s over with them sharing a division with two bad teams.
New Orleans Saints
Win Total: 9.5
Pick: Under
2023 should be more of the same for these recent Saints teams. Derek Carr is an upgrade over Andy Dalton, but this is a team defined by good rosters that are held back from being great rosters because of kick-the-can salary cap management. The coaching is really uninspiring too.
Carolina Panthers
Win Total: 7.5
Pick: Under
I supported Carolina’s aggressive trade up to the first overall pick – even if I would’ve taken a different QB (CJ Stroud) – but I hated just about everything else about their personnel decisions this offseason. The weapons remain terrible, the offensive line is vulnerable to a huge step back, and the defense merely looks fine. I like the coaching staff that they’ve assembled in Carolina, but they aren’t miracle workers. This is an easy under for me.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Win Total: 6.5
Pick: Under
Kyle Trask couldn’t beat out Baker Mayfield in the QB battle, and Tampa retained Todd Bowles. They might as well show Caleb Williams highlights on the jumbotron during games.
NFC WEST
Seattle Seahawks
Win Total 8.5
Pick: Over
Preseason predictions are largely a guessing game, but one of the few methods I have in picking “Over” teams is identifying coordinators who are potential head coaches by next season, and I see Shane Waldron as one of them. I believe in the pairing of him and Geno Smith, the receivers are elite, the run game should be awesome, and the line might take a massive step forward. They have talent and youth all over the defense, and now Bobby Wagner is back in the middle of it. Smash this over.
San Francisco 49ers
Win Total: 10.5
Pick: Under
I’m not fading the 49ers; I just think the regular season could be a bit of a slog for them. Kyle Shanahan has won over 10 games just twice in six years. I wouldn’t be shocked if Sam Darnold takes over for Brock Purdy at some point during the season, and this offensive line could be really bad outside of Trent Williams. Still, there’s just way too much talent on this team. Can already see it coming to fruition where the 10-7 49ers grab the last Wild Card spot and are the “nobody wants to play them in January” team.
Los Angeles Rams
Win Total: 6.5
Pick: Under
Stafford, Kupp, and Donald still have juice. I have total faith in Sean McVay overseeing a rebuild. This roster is just so, so bad, and the Rams seem more committed to the future than the present. I think they’ll be scrappy, but this might be a team that sells at the trade deadline then plays a lot of Stetson Bennett in the second half of the season.
Arizona Cardinals
Win Total: 4.5
Pick: Over
They are gonna be terrible. I could not be less of a believer in Jonathan Gannon. But come on, 4.5 wins is so low. Gannon is such a dork and Kyler Murray suddenly has a lot to prove, so I could definitely see this team picking up some unnecessary “culture” wins late in the season.
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
Win Total: 10.5
Pick: Over
Josh Allen is so absurdly good. He played through a fairly serious elbow injury in 2022 and only managed to go 13-3 with 4,300 passing yards and 35 TDs. (Tack on nearly 800 yards and 7 TDs on the ground.) He did that with a mediocre offensive line, run game, and group of pass-catchers after Stefon Diggs. I’m not betting against Allen going into his Age 27 season after Buffalo allocated resources to better his surroundings.
New England Patriots
Win Total: 7.5
Pick: Over
I don’t care much for Mac Jones, Bill O’Brien, or any of the weapons in the Patriots’ passing game, but this is one of my favorite ‘Over’ picks. New England has beef up front and they are going to pound the rock, and this is my pick for the best defense in the league. They are freaking loaded and deep. And as if Bill Belichick needed help on that side of the ball, now he has a true CB1 type in Christian Gonzalez. (Gonzalez was my #2 overall prospect in last year’s class. You can read all of my rookie profiles here.)
New York Jets
Win Total: 9.5
Pick: Over
I’m not over the moon with the Jets’ makeup and this division should be quite good, but they just have too much invested to fall short of double-digit wins IMO. They won 7 games last year with a rotation of Zach Wilson/Mike White/Joe Flacco at QB. It’s kinda that simple. Even if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t go full 2020-2021 Sith Lord mode again, that upgrade alone is worth a few extra wins for the Jets.
Miami Dolphins
Win Total: 9.5
Pick: Under
Honestly, I don’t feel great about putting Miami last in the AFC East. I believe in Mike McDaniel and that an upright Tua is an above-average NFL QB. Their front seven should be pretty great too. There just needs to be a fourth-place team though – a team that will likely finish beneath .500 – and I think Miami clearly carries the biggest risk of implosion. Losing Jalen Ramsey to the IR isn’t a great start for them.
AFC NORTH
Cincinnati Bengals
Win Total 11.5
Pick: Over
America collectively faded the 2022 Bengals as the typical team that takes a step back the year after losing in the Super Bowl…and they proceeded to win 12 games, the AFC North, and two playoff games. And now their O/U is even lower, even after they only played 16 games in 2022 because of the Damar Hamlin incident? They retained their coaches and a bunch of talent, upgraded the offensive line, and have multiple young studs in the secondary. What am I missing here?
Pittsburgh Steelers
Win Total: 8.5
Pick: Over
The 2022 Steelers went 9-8 with Kenny Pickett & Mitch Trubisky combining for 11 TDs and 14 INTs. The 2022 Steelers went 9-8 with Najee Harris averaging 3.8 YPC on 272 attempts. The 2022 Steelers went 9-8 with 3 of their primary offensive linemen being replaced this offseason.The 2022 Steelers went 9-8 with TJ Watt missing half of the season. This is a bad O/U line.
Baltimore Ravens
Win Total: 10.5
Pick: Under
Look, I’m excited for this team. Baltimore has finally brought in an OC who’ll treat Lamar like the professional quarterback that he is, and Zay Flowers + Odell Beckham will be fun. But Todd Monken isn’t Bill Walsh, Zay Flowers isn’t Antonio Brown (yet), and OBJ isn’t 2016 OBJ. And let’s be real, Lamar is a bona fide Top 10 QB who you’ll probably get at his best for around half of the season. The defense should be good – Kyle Hamilton is on All-Pro watch – but the pass rush looks surprisingly thin and the Ravens pieced their CB group together via the waiver wire. Let’s just slow the roll here.
Cleveland Browns
Win Total: 9.5
Pick: Under
…I don’t get this one at all. We’re giving the Cleveland Browns a realistic scenario where they’ll go over .500 and still hit the under? Did we not collectively witness how grotesque the Stefanski/Watson pairing looked last season? (The preseason reports aren’t much better.) Myles Garrett might be the best defensive player in the league but overall this defense isn’t special. In this division, easy under pick for me.
AFC SOUTH
Tennessee Titans
Win Total: 7.5
Pick: Over
Tennessee will probably get more action on futures than any other team for me. The Titans basically played half of the 2022 season without a proper quarterback and still won 7 games. I’m not betting unders on a Mike Vrabel football team, especially one that plays in a division that again looks awful on paper, plus one that I think has a bigly underappreciated roster. I think Tannehill, Henry, and Hopkins each have some juice left, and Treylon Burks and Chig Okonkwo can make shit happen. But it’s mostly this defense…the front seven is LETHAL. Seriously might be the best one in the NFL, and I’ll ride with any team with a unit that can make that claim.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Win Total: 9.5
Pick: Under
I just have a bad feeling about how the Jaguars are building this team around Trevor Lawrence on his rookie deal. Yeah, the buy-low acquisition of Calvin Ridley is good and fun, but this offensive line might be REALLY bad. There are some big names on defense, but there are also some bloated contracts and thin areas. I’ve made this comparison elsewhere – and I hope I’m wrong – but the vibes I get are Grigson-era Andrew Luck Colts teams. As awesome as Luck was, he never won more than 11 games in a season. (It’s easy to forget with their playoff win that Jacksonville, by the way, only won 9 games last year.)
Houston Texans
Win Total: 6.5
Pick: Over
I like CJ Stroud. I like DeMeco Ryans. The offensive line is sneaky good. The defense at least has some young cornerstones in place. It’s definitely Year 1 of a rebuild, but it’s finally a proper rebuild in Houston, and I’ll bet on that in a bad division.
Indianapolis Colts
Win Total: 6.5
Pick: Under
Even if Anthony Richardson becomes immediate must-watch television, this is just a bad roster on both sides of the ball. It’s hard to see a path other than one of them dealing Jonathan Taylor before the deadline and going all-in for Marvin Harrison Jr. atop the 2024 Draft.
AFC WEST
Kansas City Chiefs
Win Total: 11.5
Pick: Over
The most games that Patrick Mahomes & Andy Reid have lost in their five seasons together is 5. Chris Jones’ holdout notwithstanding, this could be one of KC’s better defenses in this era too. Matt Nagy probably isn’t Eric Bieniemy, but what are we doing here?
Los Angeles Chargers
Win Total: 9.5
Pick: Over
You have my word that I shant place any season-long action on a Brandon Staley coached team, but 9.5 wins is really light. The Chargers won 10 games last year when Justin Herbert was playing with broken ribs, without his left tackle, and with an OC who didn’t know you can throw the ball beyond 5 yards in the air. I’m low on the other two teams in this division too, so yeah double-digit wins should be pretty easy as long as Herbert stays upright.
Denver Broncos
Win Total: 8.5
Pick: Under
Yeah, I’m out. I like Sean Payton too and think he can turn things around in Denver, but setting the line at .500 for him in Year 1 is AGGRESSIVE given what he’s inherited. I don’t think the Russell Wilson turnaround is coming and Payton might have a very short leash on him, and the rest of the offensive personnel is pretty mediocre too. The defense will probably take a natural step back from their 2022 highs too, so like I said, I’m out.
Las Vegas Raiders
Win Total: 6.5
Pick: Under
Don’t bet on the team with the coach who’s the overwhelming favorite to become the first coach fired during the season. Don’t bet on the team who waited until one week before the regular season to guarantee any money in the contract they gave to their starting QB that offseason. Wait, that’s the same team here? And they might have the worst defense in the NFL? Cool, cool, cool… (Raiders are my pick to “win” the Caleb Williams sweepstakes.)
NFC EAST: Cowboys
NFC NORTH: Lions
NFC SOUTH: Falcons
NFC WEST: Seahawks
WILD CARD 1: Eagles
WILD CARD 2: Giants
WILD CARD 3: 49ers
AFC EAST: Bills
AFC NORTH: Bengals
AFC SOUTH: Titans
AFC WEST: Chiefs
WILD CARD 1: Chargers
WILD CARD 2: Jets
WILD CARD 3: Patriots
AFCCG: Bengals over Bills
NFCCG: Seahawks over 49ers
Super Bowl: Bengals over Seahawks
MVP: Josh Allen
Offensive Player of the Year: CeeDee Lamb
Defensive Player of the Year: Fred Warner
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Bijan Robinson
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Christian Gonzalez
Coach of the Year: Pete Carroll
Walter Payton Man of the Year: Derrick Henry
Epiblogue 