Tag: sports

NFL, Read

2025 NFL Draft – Top 30 Big Board

Posted on by PJ Moran

  1. Will Campbell, OT, LSU

Tweet-Length Summary: Former 5-star with 3 years of battles under his belt starting in the SEC. The arm length, sure. But also 6’6, 320lbs, plus an excellent athlete. Hands are so good, crazy grip strength, naturally executes different techniques, and no doubt he’s nasty enough. This is a blue-chip.

Pro Comp: Range at OT…Jordan Gross to Joe Thomas / Range at OG…Brandon Scherff to Zack Martin

  1. Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

Tweet-Length Summary: 2024 stats say enough about Jeanty’s special running talents. Where he deserves MORE credit: laughably good in 2023 too; he’s a fantastic receiver. Jeanty isn’t a freak like Herschel Walker or Adrian Peterson but in same Tier 1 as a RB with wizardry like Sanders/Faulk/Tomlinson.

Pro Comp: Emmitt Smith

  1. Travis Hunter, CB/WR, Colorado

Tweet-Length Summary: After endless discourse I still 1) prefer Hunter at CB > WR 2) don’t buy full snap counts on both sides in NFL. And yet he ranks here. Could’ve been my WR1, but instead I’ll boast that he’s a supremely smart CB with obviously good ball skills who moves like very few others.

Pro Comp: Derek Stingley Jr x Jameson Williams (as primary WR, I buy the Garrett Wilson comp)

  1. Abdul Carter, EDGE, Penn State

Tweet-Length Summary: Tenacious with absurd twitch plus remarkably high energy. Wins around corner with bend and speed, draws penalties, IOL don’t have a chance to stick with him. Bit small for EDGE and not the most dominant down-to-down player, but Carter will make at least one big play every game.

Pro Comp: Clay Matthews III

  1. Josh Conerly Jr, OT, Oregon

Tweet-Length Summary: Like another Duck in Christian Gonzalez in 2023, I’m pretty confident everyone is getting it wrong with Conerly. He’s probably going Round 1, but he’s a lottery pick talent. Former 5-star, great frame, excellent mover, on-field arrow pointing straight up. “My guy” in this class.

Pro Comp: Jammal Brown

  1. Shemar Stewart, EDGE, Texas A&M

Tweet-Length Summary: All-time athlete for DL, immediately clear ON TAPE that Stewart has the full toolkit. Skilled and powerful, sudden, quick hands, no question about effort. Ascendant 3-down player, slimmed down for Senior Bowl to show ceiling. Don’t conflate college sack total with production.

Pro Comp: Cameron Jordan

  1. Cam Ward, QB, Miami

Tweet-Length Summary: Ward is an experienced gambler who bets right more than wrong. Has a freaking whip of an arm, no throw is off the table given his skills. Strong and rugged. Will force some impossible throws and needs better consistency, but this is a natural-born QB. Round 1 pick in ANY draft.

Pro Comp: Steve McNair (Floor: Ryan Fitzpatrick)

  1. Nick Emmanwori, SAF, South Carolina

Tweet-Length Summary: After one of best Combines of all time, no hyperbole, I expected Emmanwori’s tape to be a mixed bag. Not the case. He’s a weapon in disguised coverages who can drop in an instant. Pure safety through and through despite looking like a linebacker. Smart, can hit, can cover. Buy in.

Pro Comp: Adrian Wilson

  1. Mason Graham, DT, Michigan

Tweet-Length Summary: For such a heavily debated prospect, Graham’s game is simple IMO. More stout and skilled than fast and twitchy. More of an every down nuisance than a game wrecker. Very heavy anchor, quick hands, savvy, crazy hot motor. Always finishing plays, every team would be lucky to have him.

Pro Comp: Christian Wilkins

  1. Will Johnson, CB, Michigan

Tweet-Length Summary: Johnson is composed, loose-hipped, and has great eyes with everything in front of him. Playmaker, extremely adept at passing off coverage assignments. Not that quick or fast and will compensate with grabbing. “Lose battles, win the war” type of CB, very high ceiling in right scheme.

Pro Comp: Aqib Talib

  1.  Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas

Tweet-Length Summary: Feisty and obviously smart, Barron’s 2024 tape is as good as anybody’s in this class. Holds his own as outside CB. Teams were done throwing at him by the CFP. There are gripes: not tightest man coverage, could attack ball better, iffy tackling form. But he’s a baller who’s always in right place.

Pro Comp: Byron Murphy

  1. Matthew Golden, WR, Texas

Tweet-Length Summary: Golden is SO sudden with very quick feet. Has ball skills, can go up and high point it. Actually a decent blocker for his frame. He will let balls too into his body, releases still lack nuance, and 4.29 40 speed doesn’t totally show on tape. He’s a raw but tantalizing talent.

Pro Comp: Derrick Mason

  1. Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State

Tweet-Length Summary: Athletic and fearless receiver, talented and powerful blocker. Huge catch radius, made some absurd grabs. Lacks special game speed, some teams were able to corral him (Ohio State). Right now I’d call Warren a GOOD blocker with GOOD hands. But there’s room for him to grow too.

Pro Comp: Kyle Rudolph

  1. Armand Membou, OT, Missouri

Tweet-Length Summary: Membou is extremely explosive with composed feet in pass protection. Immediately clear he’s a zone blocking weapon. Lot to work on: can find him looking where to go, vulnerable to inside pass rush, not consistently sticky with hands. Improved as season went on.

Pro Comp: Taylor Moton

  1. Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State

Tweet-Length Summary: Don’t think Simmons is an amazing athlete but his movement is very fluid and controlled. Good in space and can definitely move people. Definitely skill > technique right now, needs to develop with his hands. Has injury and attitude question marks, but if right he’s a no doubt NFL OT.

Pro Comp: Laremy Tunsil

  1. Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon

Tweet-Length Summary: Harmon is a pressure machine. Disruptive pass rusher who fires out of stance with strong and quick hands. Not a very good down-to-down run defender, nor is he as versatile as Oregon used him. Clearly best at 4-tech so maybe not for everyone, but easy first-rounder in right scheme.

Pro Comp: Christian Barmore

  1. Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan

Tweet-Length Summary: Loveland is young (just turned 21) so he has more to learn, but he plays at full speed. Good at being QB friendly. Even if not the most technically sound blocker, he’s a scrapper. Not sure he has NFL level strength advantage at top of routes. 2024 stats mean nothing, QB was terrible.

Pro Comp: TJ Hockenson

  1. Jalon Walker, EDGE, Georgia

Tweet-Length Summary: Loves tackling and hits like he’s made of bricks. Advanced pass rusher, especially out of full time position. Stays active throughout full rep. Walker isn’t the freakish hybrid LB we’ve come to expect in recent years. Clear why UGA played him at LB, SHOULD play EDGE but very short.

Pro Comp: Melvin Ingram

  1. Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama

Tweet-Length Summary: Milroe is just a phenomenal runner. Arm is fine! Nice deep touch, has enough anticipation. Ball placement isn’t special but good enough putting ball on guys; he hits his layups. Yes, questionable surveying field, needs to improve diagnosing things in front of him. But I like him.

Pro Comp: Vince Young

  1. James Pearce Jr, EDGE, Tennessee

Tweet-Length Summary: Good speed, packs some punch despite weight. Length = many easy pressures. Definitely has some twitch and hand quickness. Multiple perfect snap timing jumps on film. Engages in too much contact for his frame and isn’t very good countering. Can get totally manhandled vs the run.

Pro Comp: Randy Gregory

  1. Kelvin Banks Jr, OT, Texas

Tweet-Length Summary: Banks is a likable watch, enthusiastic and plays hard. Good athlete but not a freak or anything. Fires out of his stance, fluid movement. Despite 3 years of starting experience, still a work in progress. Feet aren’t synced up enough, iffy balance/control. Could be better at OG.

Pro Comp: Laken Tomlinson

  1. Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado

Tweet-Length Summary: Smart QB, strong decision maker with very good internal clock. Pre-snap recognition is there, anticipatory, adapts quickly after mistakes. Good touch, can stick it on his WRs. But his arm is otherwise mediocre. Doesn’t offer much with legs, not even play extension. Floor is LOW.

Pro Comp: Jimmy Garoppolo

  1. Kenneth Grant, DT, Michigan

Tweet-Length Summary: Mammoth DT who will appeal to teams as young, durable, and capable vs run and pass. Grant has superpower of getting his hands up for PBUs. Don’t think he’s a specimen despite size. Pretty slow off the snap, not necessarily easy power. Looked nothing like first-rounder at times.

Pro Comp: Jordan Phillips

  1. Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona

Tweet-Length Summary: McMillan is a fluid mover for his 6’4 size. Really good at catching the ball in stride and can deceptively change gears. Despite highlights, hands actually don’t seem all that great. Definitely slow off the LOS, maybe just flat out NFL slow. Blocking is shaky at best. X-only WR.

Pro Comp: Plaxico Burress

  1. Mykel Williams, EDGE, Georgia

Tweet-Length Summary: Let’s start low with Williams. Doesn’t play with  most juice, doesn’t go through blockers like you’d want. His hands in pass rush aren’t there yet, and he’s not even a disruptive rusher schemed vs IOL. But he’s 20 with tree trunk arms and enticing flashes at UGA. He’s going high.

Pro Comp: Preston Smith

  1. Luther Burden, WR, Missouri

Tweet-Length Summary: Burden is an easy book to judge by its cover. Former 5-star, looked like a star on good 2023 offense, looked bored on worse 2024 offense. Doesn’t do enough to help QB, needs way better understanding of route nuance. Bad blocker. Don’t love game speed. But…some elite ability, so maybe all moot.

Pro Comp: DJ Moore

  1. Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama

Tweet-Length Summary: Campbell is a reliable gap filler vs the run and firmly above average for a LB prospect in man coverage. Overall rock solid tackler. Being a 6’3 LB can be a disadvantage IMO and he’s not at all suited for EDGE despite that hype. But still 21, will keep getting sharper with reps.

Pro Comp: De’Vondre Campbell

  1. Malaki Starks, DB, Georgia

Tweet-Length Summary: Starks was the hardest evaluation for me in this whole class. His length and frame are a real plus in coverage, and he’s SMOOTH flipping his hips and running. But I just don’t believe in his tape + tools in a few areas: deep safety, press slot coverage, blitzing. He might be a CB!

Pro Comp(s): Rasul Douglas

  1. Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss

Tweet-Length Summary: Nolen has good bend and lateral movement for 300 pounds. Can explode out of stance. Like his effort. He plays undersized though, loses pad level too much for subpar height. Rarely stacks his blockers. Go-to pass rush move is just pushing with legs driving. Purely a 3-tech.

Pro Comp: Kobie Turner

  1. Donovan Jackson, OT/OG, Ohio State

Tweet-Length Summary: Rare true hybrid, Jackson cemented his status as an Ohio State legend by playing LT well. Tough, durable, even was involved in setting protections. As a prospect, he’s a great run blocker who’s long and strong. Changing direction isn’t easy for him so his ceiling is capped.

Pro Comp: Jermaine Eluemunor

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MLB, Read

The Win/Loss Project

Posted on by PJ Moran

The MVP decisions in baseball this season will inevitably go down as some of the least dramatic in the history of the sport: Aaron Judge will win in the American League and Shohei Ohtani will win in the National League. 

And yet, while Ohtani has been the NL’s frontrunner for months now, his coronation wasn’t such a sure thing a few weeks ago. Francisco Lindor kept the race alive with his excellent and often clutch two-way play leading the Mets’ late charge into the playoff picture. Ohtani shut the door on debate with his otherworldly September, but not early enough for me – and likely others – to ask the question: can we quantify Lindor’s impact on Mets wins compared to Ohtani’s impact on Dodgers wins?

It’s not only a fair proposition with Ohtani being a full-time DH in 2024 compared to Lindor being a shortstop (and an elite one); it’s also a mostly fair question to pose on the basis of the Dodgers not exactly needing Ohtani heading into this season. They have Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez and Will Smith in the lineup too, and they had made the playoffs in 11 consecutive seasons with NL West titles in 10 of them. The Mets, on the other hand, have only made the playoffs twice since 2015, and they didn’t escape the Wild Card Round in either of those years. And while they have several above-average offensive players, Lindor is basically lapping his next-closest teammates in overall value on the season.

That note on player value brings us to WAR (Wins Above Replacement), which I have zero intent of dissing in this exercise. WAR, simply put, is one of the greatest statistical advancements in MLB’s long history. It does an excellent job of encapsulating one player’s total and well-rounded worth to his team’s win/loss record compared to the average Triple-A player they could call up in his place. Award voting in baseball still has its blemishes, but WAR has led the charge away from the days of MVP travesties like Justin Morneau over Derek Jeter or Juan Gonzalez over Alex Rodriguez because the winning players drove in more runs.

And yet, it does feel like we’ve entered a realm where the pendulum has swung too far and WAR is now the end-all-be-all stat for MVP discourse. Like I’ve established, it’s a great stat, but there is admittedly something lame about a baseball stat that you can’t visualize on the field itself. Also, it’s definitely weird that WAR is defined differently, and not minor differences in some cases, by its two sources: Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Add in the consideration that advanced defensive stats, albeit improving yet still murky at best, are a key component of WAR, and it’s not hard to understand why it would be nice to have an alternate counter for player wins.

That brings us to WPA (Win Probability Added), another imperceivable yet valuable and easy to understand stat: how much – by fractions of 100% – did a player’s directly responsible plays add or detract from his team’s mathematical odds of winning that game? Cumulative WPA is a solid stat and does receive some attention from voters during awards season, but I chose to instead investigate WPA on a game-by-game basis. Because, at the end of the day, baseball is unique in its 162-game season that still always comes down to 1 or 2 games for many teams on either the right or wrong side of the postseason bracket. 

Also, I do think it’s fun that MLB currently faces somewhat of an inverse groupthink situation compared to other sports, including football at both the professional and college levels. In those sports, to much public outcry, the MVP/Heisman is usually handed to the quarterback on the best team regardless if he was actually the “best” player in the sport. Meanwhile, largely due to WAR in baseball, MVPs are usually given to the most dominant player across all innings regardless of his circumstances. There is practically nonexistent distinction for whether WAR-generating plays occurred in the 1st vs 9th innings or in back-and-forth vs blowout contests. Moments should matter though, and – aside from usually rewarding a player from a playoff team – we have lost sight of that in recent years.

Without further ado, the Win/Loss Project aims to give “wins” to ANY player – not just a pitcher like in standard baseball scorekeeping – with the most WPA in a team win. “Losses,” therefore, are handed to ANY player with the most reduced WPA in a team loss.

Below are the standings for each of MLB’s 12 playoff teams for the 2024 season (with bonus inclusion for the on-the-bubble Arizona Diamondbacks eliminated on the final Monday of the regular season). You’ll find individual “wins” as its own category, especially worthwhile for anyone like myself who has not thought about pitcher wins in at least a decade. More significantly, however, should be the “win/loss differential” statistic; in its ideal and intended use case, you can stack that number directly against WAR to measure individual player value in a different way. (Example, Aaron Judge is an 11 WAR player and a 9 WPA W/L player.)

NEW YORK YANKEES (94-68)

TOP 5, WINS

  1. Aaron Judge: 12
  2. Carlos Rodon: 9
  3. Juan Soto: 8
  4. Nestor Cortes: 8
  5. Luis Gil: 7

TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  1. Aaron Judge: +9
  2. Juan Soto: +7
  3. Ian Hamilton: +4
  4. Luis Gil: +3
  5. Alex Verdugo: +3
  6. Austin Wells: +3

BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  • Marcus Stroman: -2
  • Tommy Kahnle: -2
  • Anthony Rizzo: -2
  • Caleb Ferguson: -2
  • Victor Gonzalez: -2
  • Will Warren: -3
  • Clay Holmes: -5

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (92-69)

TOP 5, WINS

  1. Jose Ramirez: 10
  2. David Fry: 8
  3. Josh Naylor: 8
  4. Tanner Bibee: 7
  5. Andres Gimenez: 6
  6. Emmanuel Clase: 6
  7. Jhonkensy Noel: 6

TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  1. David Fry: +8
  2. Jose Ramirez: +7
  3. Josh Naylor: +6
  4. Emmanuel Clase: +6
  5. Jhonkensy Noel: +6

BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  • Logan Allen: -3
  • Xzavion Curry: -3
  • Gavin Williams: -4
  • Scott Barlow: -4
  • Nick Sandlin: -5
  • Carlos Carrasco: -7

HOUSTON ASTROS (88-73)

TOP 5, WINS

  1. Framber Valdez: 12
  2. Hunter Brown: 11
  3. Ronel Blanco: 9
  4. Yordan Alvarez: 8
  5. Alex Bregman: 7

TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  1. Framber Valdez: +9
  2. Hunter Brown: +5
  3. Ronel Blanco: +5
  4. Yordan Alvarez: +5
  5. Alex Bregman: +5

BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  • Justin Verlander: -2
  • Kyle Tucker: -2
  • JP France: -2
  • Rafael Montero: -2
  • Tayler Scott: -3
  • Ryan Pressly: -3
  • Spencer Arrighetti: -4
  • Bryan Abreu: -4

BALTIMORE ORIOLES (91-71)

TOP 5, WINS

  1. Anthony Santander: 10
  2. Gunnar Henderson: 7
  3. Albert Suarez: 7
  4. Ryan Mountcastle: 6
  5. Cole Irvin: 6

TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  1. Anthony Santander: +7
  2. Gunnar Henderson: +6
  3. Adley Rutschman: +4
  4. Cedric Mullins: +4
  5. Ryan Mountcastle: +3
  6. Heston Kjerstad: +3
  7. Zach Eflin: +3
  8. Ryan O’Hearn: +3

BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  • Yennier Cano: -2
  • Cionel Perez: -2
  • Tyler Wells: -2
  • Trevor Rogers: -2
  • Cade Povich: -3
  • Keegan Akin: -4
  • Dean Kremer: -5
  • Craig Kimbrel: -5

KANSAS CITY ROYALS (86-76)

TOP 5, WINS

  1. Seth Lugo: 11
  2. Bobby Witt Jr: 9
  3. Sal Perez: 8
  4. Brady Singer: 8
  5. Michael Wacha: 7
  6. Cole Ragans: 7

TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  1. Bobby Witt Jr: +8
  2. Seth Lugo: +6
  3. Sal Perez: +4
  4. Michael Wacha: +4
  5. Adam Frazier: +4

BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  • Alec Marsh: -3
  • Sam Long: -3
  • Will Smith: -3
  • Angel Zerpa: -3
  • Chris Stratton: -4
  • James McArthur: -6

DETROIT TIGERS (86-76)

TOP 5, WINS

  1. Tarik Skubal: 13
  2. Wenceel Perez: 6
  3. Colt Keith: 6
  4. Riley Greene: 4
  5. Matt Vierling: 4
  6. Beau Brieske: 4
  7. Keider Montero: 4

TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  1. Tarik Skubal: +11
  2. Wenceel Perez: +5
  3. Colt Keith: +4
  4. Matt Vierling: +3
  5. Andy Ibanez: +3

BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  • Reese Olson: -2
  • Will Vest: -2
  • Joey Wentz: -2
  • Andrew Chafin: -3
  • Alex Faedo: -4
  • Shelby Miller: -5
  • Kenta Maeda: -6

LOS ANGELES DODGERS (98-64)

TOP 5, WINS

  1. Shohei Ohtani: 11
  2. Teoscar Hernandez: 10
  3. Gavin Stone: 7
  4. Will Smith: 7
  5. Freddie Freeman: 5
  6. James Paxton: 5
  7. Max Muncy: 5
  8. Mookie Betts: 5
  9. Tyler Glasnow: 5
  10. Kike Hernandez: 5

TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  1. Shohei Ohtani: +10
  2. Teoscar Hernandez: +8
  3. Will Smith: +6
  4. Freddie Freeman: +4
  5. Max Muncy: +4
  6. Kike Hernandez: +4

BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  • Walker Buehler: -3
  • Daniel Hudson: -3
  • Michael Grove: -3
  • Yohan Ramirez: -3
  • Bobby Miller: -4

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (95-67)

TOP 5, WINS

  1. Zack Wheeler: 11
  2. Ranger Suarez: 9
  3. Aaron Nola: 7
  4. Christopher Sanchez: 7
  5. Alec Bohm: 7

TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  1. Zack Wheeler: +7
  2. Alec Bohm: +7
  3. Kyle Schwarber: +5
  4. Christopher Sanchez: +4
  5. Ranger Suarez: +3
  6. Nick Castellanos: +3

BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  • Seranthony Dominguez: -1
  • Connor Brogdon: -1
  • Jose Ruiz: -1
  • Johan Rojas: -1
  • Seth Johnson: -1
  • Michael Mercado: -2
  • Jeff Hoffman: -3
  • Taijuan Walker : -6

MILWAUKEE BREWERS (93-69)

TOP 5, WINS

  1. Willy Adames: 9
  2. William Contreras: 8
  3. Rhys Hoskins: 8
  4. Jackson Chourio: 7
  5. Tobias Myers: 7

TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  1. William Contreras: +6
  2. Jackson Chourio: +6
  3. Tobias Myers: +6
  4. Rhys Hoskins: +5
  5. Willy Adames: +3
  6. Christian Yelich: +3
  7. Blake Perkins: +3
  8. Sal Frelick: +3

BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  • Joe Ross: -2
  • Joel Payamps: -2
  • Carlos Rodriguez: -2
  • Brice Turang: -3
  • Hoby Milner: -4
  • Elvis Peguero: -6

SAN DIEGO PADRES (93-69)

TOP 5, WINS

  1. Dylan Cease: 12
  2. Michael King: 10
  3. Jurickson Profar: 8
  4. Jackson Merrill: 8
  5. Jake Cronenworth: 7

TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  1. Dylan Cease: +7
  2. Jackson Merrill: +7
  3. Jurickson Profar: +6
  4. Jake Cronenworth: +4
  5. Michael King: +3
  6. Fernando Tatis Jr: +3
  7. Kyle Higashioka: +3

BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  • Matt Waldron: -2
  • Randy Vasquez: -2
  • Jhony Brito: -2
  • Stephen Kolek : -2
  • Yuki Matsui: -2
  • Adam Mazur: -2
  • Enyel De Los Santos: -3
  • Wandy Peralta : -3

ATLANTA BRAVES (89-73)

TOP 5, WINS

  1. Chris Sale: 10
  2. Reynaldo Lopez: 8
  3. Max Fried: 8
  4. Spencer Schwellenbach: 7
  5. Charlie Morton: 6
  6. Matt Olson: 6

TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  1. Chris Sale: +8
  2. Reynaldo Lopez: +6
  3. Jarred Kelenic: +5
  4. Max Fried: +4
  5. Raisel Iglesias: +4
  6. Travis d’Arnaud: +4

BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  • Pierce Johnson: -2
  • Bryce Elder: -2
  • Grant Holmes: -2
  • Whit Merrifield: -2
  • Aaron Bummer: -2
  • Allan Winans: -2
  • Jesse Chavez: -2
  • Hurston Waldrep: -2
  • Joe Jimenez: -3

NEW YORK METS (89-73)

TOP 5, WINS

  1. Francisco Lindor: 9
  2. Luis Severino: 8
  3. JD Martinez: 6
  4. Jose Quintana: 6
  5. Brandon Nimmo: 6

TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  1. Francisco Lindor: +7
  2. JD Martinez: +6
  3. Brandon Nimmo: +6
  4. Jeff McNeil: +4
  5. Pete Alonso: +4
  6. Francisco Alvarez: +4

BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  • Huascar Brazoban: -2
  • Jake Diekman: -2
  • Jorge Lopez: -2
  • Michael Tonkin: -2
  • Reed Garrett: -3
  • Christian Scott : -3
  • Edwin Diaz: -5
  • Adrian Houser: -6

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (89-73)

TOP 5, WINS

  1. Zac Gallen: 10
  2. Christian Walker: 7
  3. Brandon Pfaadt: 6
  4. Eugenio Suarez: 6
  5. Ketel Marte: 6

TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  1. Christian Walker: +6
  2. Zac Gallen: +5
  3. Ketel Marte: +5
  4. Corbin Carroll: +3
  5. Joc Pederson: +3
  6. Randal Grichuk: +3
  7. Adrian Del Castillo: +3
  8. Gabriel Moreno: +3

BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL

  • Ryan Thompson: -2
  • Tommy Henry: -2
  • Bryce Jarvis: -2
  • Jordan Montgomery: -3
  • Justin Martinez: -4
  • Slade Cecconi: -5

For kicks, here’s how I would vote for the four major awards:

AL MVP

  1. Aaron Judge
  2. Bobby Witt Jr
  3. Tarik Skubal

NL MVP

  1. Shohei Ohtani
  2. Francisco Lindor
  3. Teoscar Hernandez

AL Cy Young

  1. Tarik Skubal
  2. Framber Valdez
  3. Seth Lugo

NL Cy Young

  1. Chris Sale
  2. Zack Wheeler
  3. Dylan Cease

0
NFL, Read

Is Josh Allen the new Travis Kelce of fantasy football? Not exactly…but kinda?!

Posted on by PJ Moran

From 2018 to 2022, Travis Kelce had one of the more uniquely dominant five-season stretches in fantasy football history. Kelce scored 1,440 PPR fantasy points across those five seasons; the second highest scoring tight end during that span, George Kittle, scored 1,005 total PPR points. That gap between Kelce and Kittle is larger than the gap between Kittle and the TE12 over that time (Mike Gesicki). On an annual basis, Kelce finished as the TE1, TE1, TE1, TE2, and TE1, respectively, among tight ends from 2018 to 2022.

With hindsight being 20/20, Kelce was worth a first-round pick in fantasy drafts heading into each of those seasons. There was no better edge than having Kelce on your roster putting up the numbers of a WR1 when your league-mates limped to 7 points per game out of their tight ends. The fantasy football collective gets a pass for not identifying Kelce’s first-round value heading into 2018, his true breakout season into fantasy superstardom; his ADP was 28th overall that year. His overall ADP (slightly) crept up over the next few years:

2019: 17

2020: 18

2021: 12

2022: 14

With the limited exception from 2021 following Kelce’s outrageous 105/1416/11 season in 2020, most drafters missed out on golden years from Kelce because they were too afraid to allocate their first picks to a tight end – even the most bankable tight end we’ve ever seen in fantasy football in his prime.

And now, only a couple of years later, it seems like something similar might be happening with another of the NFL’s biggest stars. Josh Allen has been the top fantasy quarterback since 2020 almost any way you slice it. Patrick Mahomes has done an admirable job keeping the QB1 race (somewhat) close, but he’s also masking the total dominance of Allen over every other QB. The 2020-2023 cumulative gap between Allen and the QB3 during that stretch (Justin Herbert) is larger than the gap between Herbert and the QB15 (Matt Stafford). Annually, Allen has finished as the QB1, QB1, QB2, and QB1 over the last four seasons. On the most surface level, it’s similar positional supremacy to Kelce at his peak.

This begs the question: should Josh Allen be in line for the first-round treatment that Travis Kelce deserved but only occasionally received from 2018-2022? Going off early indicators for 2024 drafts, it’s an even more controversial proposition for Allen than it ever was for Kelce; Allen’s current ADP average is 22nd overall! 

The arguments against taking a QB highly in drafts, let alone with a top pick, are well-documented: you only start one of them in standard formats, there are multiple elite options at the position (Mahomes, Jalen Hurts), etc. Mainly though, fantasy football is a game of trying to outwit the opposition at as many positions as possible rather than trying to accumulate the most points, which quarterbacks do best. Managers are looking for a game-breaker with their first-round pick, and unless there was a surefire 2010 Michael Vick or 2018 Lamar Jackson season heading into drafts, in theory it tracks to target a skill player.

To what end, though? If Josh Allen is performing that much ahead of other players at his position, when does it make sense to pull the trigger on him? Might we be getting this totally wrong?!

Let’s take names out of the equation for a moment and look at the basics for Top 10 finishers at primary fantasy positions over the last four years.

 QBRBWRTE
# of Top 10 annual finishers over 4 years24292624
# of Top 10 finishers in 4 of 4 years2 (Allen, Mahomes)02 (Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs)2 (Kelce, Mark Andrews)
# of Top 10 finishers in 3 of 4 years3 (+ Jalen Hurts)1 (Derrick Henry)4 (+ Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams)3 (+ George Kittle)
Standard Deviation, Top 10 Range1.19 – 3.112.30 – 3.181.91 – 2.341.65 – 3.00
Standard Deviation, Top 10 Four-Year Average1.962.712.342.43

·   Top 10 finishers by total points, THEN sorted by PPG (Half-PPR). Availability matters!

·   I am using 2019-2022 in this analysis for tight ends to mirror Travis Kelce’s four-year curve. For standard deviation measurements, the time frame remains 2018-2022.

So, what does this begin to tell us? First, do not draft Josh Allen before anyone who you legitimately believe might end the season as the overall RB1. Premier running backs will always offer the highest ceiling among players on the board in fantasy football. Especially at the very top of drafts with the Christian McCaffrey’s of the world available, the reward is likely worth the risk. (The RB cliff is STEEP though, and the bottom can just fall out for ANY running back.)

After that confirmation of elite RB value, a top observation is that QBs are, on average, the flattest position among Top 10 performers – something that, in theory, doesn’t bode well for the prospects of Josh Allen as a top fantasy pick. That said, the gap isn’t all that wide; in fact, it’s interesting to see that Top 10 WRs are positionally placed exactly between RBs and QBs in terms of four-year average variance when wideouts are much more frequently correlated with RBs than QBs. Also, while the flattest single season for one position in this span belonged to QBs – every Top 10 QB in 2020 averaged at least 21.9 PPG – the second HIGHEST variance season among all fantasy positions in this span also belonged to QBs! And if you believe in patterns, then you should note that QB has been MUCH more of a boom-or-bust position in the last two seasons than it was from 2020-2021. Just last season, Josh Allen outscored the QB10 (Baker Mayfield) by a whopping 7.5 PPG. To put that in perspective, that would be equivalent to the team with Mayfield having an extra roster spot with Dallas Goedert in it.

To start to culminate this exercise, let’s bring names back into the equation. In addition to Allen and Kelce, it’s great that we have consistent Top 10 data across all four years from Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs, too.

To reach the below percentages:

1.      For each season individually, I took that player’s PPG and subtracted it from the 3rd ranking player’s PPG. For example, in 2023 I took Josh Allen’s 24.2 PPG and subtracted Lamar Jackson’s 21.1 PPG from it.

2.      Whatever the difference – which could be positive, negative, or zero – I divided that by the standard deviation across the Top 10 in that particular season. Sticking with the above example, I divided 3.1 (QB1-QB3) by 2.27 (STDDEV) to reach 1.36, or 136%.

3.      I repeated the same for all four seasons in the span – five in the case of Kelce and tight ends – then also repeated against the 5th and 10th ranking players’ PPGs.

4.      I averaged out the percentages over the spans.

2020-2023 (QB/WR)
2018-2022 (TE)		AllenHillDiggsKelce
vs QB3/WR3/TE390%15%-97%130%
vs QB5/WR5/TE5172%106%-20%199%
vs QB10/WR10/TE10293%192%80%299%

These results are more of the eye-of-the-beholder type. Personally, however, I cannot ignore Tyreek Hill’s percentages here – which are indicative of the alpha fantasy wideout. Beyond being over 100% more bankable than the typical WR5 overall on a season and nearly 200% over the typical WR10, don’t sleep on how ridiculously impressive it is that Hill performed ON AVERAGE above the typical WR3 overall even when accounting for fluctuation across other performers at the position. When you look back to the first table and remember that WRs have, by far, the thinnest range of year-over-year outcomes compared to the other positions – plus the obvious consideration that most fantasy leagues require 3+ WRs in starting lineups now – it becomes harder and harder to build a good argument for taking Josh Allen over wideouts with a realistic shot at finishing as the overall WR1 – WR3 on the season.

Then things get interesting, though. For a Stefon Diggs type of fantasy wideout, a veteran with static year-over-year ADPs near the Round 1/Round 2 turn, that quite evidently is seldom a league-winning player but should return positive value as a WR1 for your particular fantasy team – just maybe not the overall rankings. Looking at current 2024 ADPs, players like AJ Brown or Davante Adams could fit this bill.

Again, this is where eye-of-the-beholder fantasy preferences and strategies take over. I wouldn’t fault any fantasy manager for taking an extremely reliable wideout like Brown with their first pick and then swinging for the fences with their second or third pick. But, I’ll also be real with this data staring me in the face, you might want to take Josh Allen instead if you are seeking a true league-winner with your top pick! (This logic would apply to the top TE too, but there isn’t a clear top dog at that position with a track record heading into 2024.)

So, let’s now answer the question that kicked this whole thing off: should Josh Allen be in line for the first-round treatment that Travis Kelce deserved but only occasionally received from 2018-2022? 

There isn’t one cut-and-dry answer, but I’d start with a “not exactly.” Kelce seriously was 1-of-1 when it came to year-over-year dominance over even the best of the best of his peers at the position. Especially in best ball formats or more casual leagues without many transactions or lineup changes, Allen doesn’t keep pace with peak Kelce as a set-and-forget fantasy machine.

When you begin to widen the parameters though, even slightly, my answer becomes more of “…kinda!” The gap between Allen and Kelce over their QB3/TE3 counterparts shrinks a lot once you zoom out to their QB5/TE5 counterparts, and then the gap is basically gone between them once you get to QB10/TE10 benchmarks! Meaning that, in redraft leagues of 10+ members, the numbers indicate that you would have a remarkably similar edge with Josh Allen that prime Travis Kelce offered over STARTERS in lineups across your league.

So yes, in the regard of being a more bankable force multiplier than the lowest tier of starters at the position, 2024 Josh Allen is right there with 2018-2022 Travis Kelce.

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