School: Clemson

Position: LB

Year: Junior

The Good: Trenton Simpson is a former five-star recruit and it’s easy to see why. His body looks like it was chiseled from stone, and then he went out and ran a 4.43 40 at the Combine (97th percentile for linebackers) and put up 25 reps on the bench press. When linebackers with Simpson’s size/speed combo connect when blitzing or crashing down on a screen, it looks really good.

The Bad: Simpson is a tweener between linebacker and safety, and I highly doubt it’s physically possible for him to add any more muscle to his 235lbs frame. He does not look the part of a linebacker against the run. His contact balance is lacking, he doesn’t set the edge well, and he’s not a sure tackler. Simpson struggles to force WRs and TEs off their routes in man coverage, and he’s not very instinctual in zone coverage either. He’s somehow too aggressive in coverage yet too apprehensive as a pass rusher.

The Bottom Line: This profile of off-ball linebacker just never works out with high picks in the NFL Draft. Seriously, this isn’t personal about Trenton Simpson; go back and look at my write-ups on Jamin Davis, Patrick Queen, etc. Well, this next part is personal, but I have a lower grade on Simpson than those guys anyway. There are just very few high-level plays on his tape to offset the myriad of concerning plays. Granted, this game was played 1.5 years ago, but Simpson’s tape against Georgia is as rough as I’ve seen from a rumored Day 1 prospect. There is a burgeoning case that heavy NFL Draft investment into off-ball linebackers is more wasteful than into running backs, due to the unpredictable nature and almost impossible outcome for an immediately seamless college-to-NFL transition at the position. I’ll vouch for the general positional value of off-ball linebackers in the NFL, but becoming a good player there takes time and players like Simpson with plenty of natural talent but without demonstrable abilities to cover and stop the run should go in the back half of the Draft.

Grade: Day 3

Pro Comp: Jarrad Davis

Games Watched:

• Georgia 2021
• South Carolina 2021
• Wake Forest 2022
• NC State 2022
• Florida State 2022

School: Arkansas (2022), Alabama (2020-2021)

Position: LB

Year: Junior

The Good: Drew Sanders started his college career at Alabama as a big-time EDGE recruit, but he transferred to Arkansas and transitioned to linebacker. Still, those pass rush chops didn’t go anywhere. Sanders posted a crazy high pressure rate on his pure pass rush snaps, and he finished a good deal of those rushes too – 9.5 sacks in 2022. He probably is too lean to play EDGE full-time in the NFL though, so he made the right move for his future in moving to LB. Sanders will immediately become one of the taller off-ball LBs in the NFL at 6’4”, and he maximizes his length and plays with great instincts. He’s a plus athlete with good spatial awareness in coverage; Sanders consistently keeps his eyes on the QB without losing his place on the field. He makes clean breaks on the ball and can lay the wood. 

The Bad: Whenever a prospect is described as a “work in progress” in a certain phase of the game, that typically means he currently isn’t very good at it – and that’s true when it comes to Sanders against the run. He needs to get better at taking on contact and standing his ground on runs right at him up the middle, and he isn’t particularly quick to shed blocks either. His background as a pass rusher also bites him in the ass at times now that he plays a position that requires patience; Sanders sometimes bites too heavily on play action and abandons his zone coverage in pursuit of receivers. Though an otherwise plus athlete, Sanders’ play speed is more fine than good, and he needs to clean up his tackling too.

The Bottom Line: Drew Sanders is such a fun prospect, and it’s hard not to get excited about what he could become with his pedigree and only one full year of experience at linebacker. Though his game still has holes in it, you observe growth in Sanders’ game when you watch his 2022 film sequentially; he was much better vs. the run in Arkansas’ game against Alabama. Even if Sanders develops into a decent run defender, he should be a positive presence in coverage and one of the better pass rushing LBs in the NFL. You can argue all you want about the positional value of off-ball linebacker, but if Sanders clicks then he could become one of the more impactful players in this class at any position.

Grade: Late First Round / Early Second Round

Pro Comp: Derrick Johnson

Games Watched:

• Cincinnati 2022
• South Carolina 2022
• Texas A&M 2022
• Alabama 2022
• BYU 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Michigan

Position: DT

Year: Redshirt Junior

The Good: Mazi Smith is a freaking load of a DT prospect at 325lbs with nearly 34” arms, but don’t get him confused for a nose tackle who will just close his eyes and push forward. Smith is very twitched up for a NT; he didn’t top Bruce Feldman’s annual ‘Freaks List’ article by accident. Though Smith sadly didn’t test for the most part at the Combine, he flashed enough on tape as a pass rusher to prove that the hype around his tools isn’t a manufactured marketing campaign out of Ann Arbor. Smith also boasts absurd upper body strength. The one drill he completed at the Combine was the bench press, which is usually the dumbest drill but Smith’s count of 34 reps is a meaningful number (tied for second among all participants).

The Bad: Those in the NFL Draft community who are highest on Mazi Smith typically land there due to his ability against the run, but I don’t totally see it. Don’t get me wrong: he’s fine as a run stuffer and certainly has the build to become elite at it, but he’s far away from reaching that status in my opinion. Go back and watch the TCU tape before opening any debate on the subject with me. Smith isn’t the immovable object vs the run that I expected, largely because he doesn’t play with enough leverage. His hand usage also isn’t very good right now, which shows up when he fails to quickly shed blocks. Smith’s hand pop also doesn’t match his raw strength and, while I’m more optimistic about Smith as a pass rusher, he isn’t refined in that department. I wouldn’t exactly bang the table for Smith’s on-field motor either.

The Bottom Line: Mazi Smith is…fine? I’m almost mad at myself for hitting the point of him topping Feldman’s column so early in this profile because honestly it feels like that’s the top bullet point on Smith’s resume. There’s projection left to his game, sure, but I really don’t think Mazi Smith is some ball of clay that NFL coaches can mold into a superstar like some other people apparently do. He played quite a bit at Michigan over the past two years; I think this version of him is close to the finished product. Which, again, is fine. I see him as a starting-caliber DT – and capable NT – who can log high snap counts.

Grade: Late Second Round / Early Third Round

Pro Comp: Johnathan Hankins

Games Watched:

• Iowa 2022
• Penn State 2022
• Ohio State 2022
• TCU 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Pittsburgh

Position: DT

Year: Redshirt Junior

The Good: Calijah Kancey comes into this NFL Draft as one of the prospects with the most recognition, on the back of his unanimous selection to the 2022 All-American Team then 4.67 40-yard dash time at the NFL Combine that tied the record for defensive tackles. Putting his accolades aside, on the field Kancey plays with the speed and suddenness that he showcased at the Combine. He can climb from gap-to-gap in a flash, and you can blink and miss when Kancey shoots gaps off the snap. With his extremely active hands on top of that, there are some plays where interior linemen barely touch Kancey before he collapses the pocket. That’s usually how Kancey wins, though he does have some technical rush moves down too.

The Bad: I’ll mainly stick to the pass rushing phase of Kancey’s game with discussion of cons, because he looked small enough against the run in the ACC that I’m not sure it even warrants discussion how he’d phase against the run in the NFL. So, as a pass rusher, Kancey really doesn’t attack linemen with much power – even when he’s able to lock into them. That lack of power aside, Kancey doesn’t stack on top of blockers much because he kinda can’t. Undersized DT prospects are nothing new, but Kancey’s measurables at 281lbs (4th percentile) and 30.5” arms (1st percentile) are still shocking. Naturally, he’s not able to swim over even the shortest of blockers at his dimensions, so his access to a wider array of rush moves is limited. Kancey frequently tries to spin off blockers following initial contact to compensate for this, but it didn’t work much in college and will work even less in the NFL.

The Bottom Line: Yeah…I’m skeptical of Calijah Kancey’s transition to the NFL and totally fade the projection of him as a first-round player. He’s obviously a fun prospect who posted ridiculously high pressure stats in college, but arguably no prospect has had his narrative get more out-of-hand during the elongated pre-Draft process than him. The comparisons to Aaron Donald are expected given their shared status as Pitt alumni at smaller sizes for a defensive tackle, but those are silly. Donald is 1-of-1, and even if he wasn’t, Kancey doesn’t destroy solo blocking nearly to the degree that Donald did at Pitt. I also can’t believe that more attention hasn’t been given to Kancey’s snap shares in college; he was a truly rotational player in 2021 and even somewhat rotational in 2022 as well. He also isn’t particularly versatile, as his pass rush chops didn’t slide over to his occasional reps at EDGE. Kancey missed time with a shoulder injury in 2022 as well…and I’m piling on at this point to a degree that isn’t exactly fair for a potentially impactful and easy-to-root-for role player who shouldn’t have entered the Round 1 conversation in the first place in my opinion. 

Grade: Third Round

Pro Comp: Milton Williams

Games Watched:

• Clemson 2021
• Wake 2021
• West Virginia 2022
• Tennessee 2022
• UNC 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Clemson

Position: DT

Year: Junior

The Good: Bryan Bresee is an easy prospect to root for, with extremely high effort for a dude who tips the scales at 300lbs. Bresee is a very plus athlete for his weight and position; he’s an excellent mover who’s really quick off the snap. Bresee has both quick and powerful hands, which make him one of the better DT prospects at countering offensive linemen in recent years. Bresee flashes dominance as a 3-tech when he connects on timing and pad level, and he’s proven that he can beat OTs in straight-up battles too. Between his flashier plays, Bresee is a reliable run defender on the interior who excels at shooting gaps. He consistently gets his hands up in passing lanes too.  

The Bad: Bresee is inconsistently disruptive as a pass rusher, which naturally is the top knock against him. On some reps, he’s nowhere close to the QB at the time of release. Bresee is plenty strong but he doesn’t rush with much power; he’s way more the type to brawl in the trenches than drive back a lineman into the pocket. Bresee is pretty upright and tight-hipped too, which can’t really be fixed. Bresee is a strong run defender behind his natural talent and grasp of the position, though he is lighter than the typical IDL so he does get moved off his spot at times.

The Bottom Line: Skepticism over Bresee as a potential Round 1 prospect is understandable, given that his recent game tape is up-and-down and somewhat limited. Bresee gets a pass though, given that he dealt with personal tragedy and a freaking kidney infection that fluctuated his weight during the 2022 season. Towards the end of the season, particularly the ACC Championship Game against North Carolina, Bresee looked back to the part of a surefire first-rounder to me. We’ve already seen great football from Bresee at Clemson, and I’d bet that consistently great football is ahead in Bresee’s NFL future. Even if he’s a prototypical 3-4 DE, Bresee can thrive in any scheme and should be an every-down player. The below comp is admittedly lofty, but if it all clicks then it’s not an unrealistic projection for Bresee. 

Grade: Mid First Round

Pro Comp: Cam Heyward

Games Watched:

• Georgia 2021
• Wake Forest 2022
• Syracuse 2022
• North Carolina 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Georgia

Position: DT

Year: Junior

The Good: In a year without many can’t-miss prospects – I usually can’t stand that summation of draft classes but actually agree with it for the most part for 2023 – Jalen Carter is likely the most dominant on-field player of the whole bunch. Carter is a monster when he’s playing at 100%; he’s damn near impossible to stop if he gets underneath or hits the inside shoulder of an interior lineman. Carter gets past blockers with remarkable quickness and he does so consistently, to the point where there were actually too many immediate pass rush wins up the middle for me to list while evaluating his tape. Carter has truly absurd power and strength from head to toe; he can basically shot put offensive linemen. Carter is an excellent run defender too, as he reliably fills gaps and can absorb any and all blocks while standing his ground. He has extremely quick hands to shed blocks, and he’s great at getting his hands up in passing lanes too. Carter required constant double teams in the back half of his tenure at Georgia, where he still was able to make a direct impact on plays.

The Bad: There aren’t many natural flaws to Carter’s game, though I do think there are a few. In grinding his tape, I caught him off balance more than I expected as a casual observer of his games. Carter explodes towards QBs as well as any DT prospect I’ve personally graded, though I don’t think he’s as special when it comes to making tight turns in the pocket. Like I mentioned, Carter has great hands and is already a stout run defender, but I think he can get even better in that regard with more consistency. He misses with his initial strike sometimes too. Besides that, I think the low points in Carter’s tape mainly boil down to effort – which is somewhat expected for a 315-pounder on a high snap count but also fair to write personally about Carter. He doesn’t always fight back too well when he loses initial engagement, and he loses the pad level battle more than you’d like to see from him. 

The Bottom Line: The pre-Draft saga of Jalen Carter obviously isn’t all about his on-field performance. Hell, I’d say it’s even less than 50% about it at this point. I want to do my best to stick to Jalen Carter as a player in this summary, even if teams are weighing the selection of Carter as a player and a person. I just don’t know the kid nor do I know people who do know the kid, and I’ve been burnt in the past by downgrading prospects for off-field stuff when the NFL willingly overlooks a lot of it. Still, I expect to slightly downgrade Carter on my Big Board after all of these developments – especially the out-of-shape and incomplete Pro Day performance – when I already noted him acting out and playing with low energy on tape. I do think he falls a bit further in the Draft itself than people are projecting come April 27 too, though whoever does land Carter will be adding a scheme-proof player with the ability to shut down an opposing offense almost by himself.

Grade: Top 10 Pick

Pro Comp: Ndamukong Suh

Games Watched:

• Clemson 2021
• Kentucky 2021
• Alabama 2021
• Oregon 2022
• Florida 2022
• Tennessee 2022
• LSU 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Kansas State

Position: EDGE

Year: Junior

The Good: Felix Anudike-Uzomah (FAU) leaves Kansas State early as an uber productive pass rusher (19.5 sacks across 2021-2022, Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year). FAU can basically get to opposing QBs however he wants; he has active hands and a multitude of developed rush moves to get around OTs, and he can knock OTs to the ground too when he charges up. For his thick build. FAU can turn a tight corner and has enough lateral quickness. He’s plenty strong with pop in his hands and a good lower half that allows him to progress towards QBs and ball carriers through heavy blocking. FAU has one of the best motors in this EDGE class and generates pressure as consistently as anyone else too.

The Bad: I mentioned that FAU has a good, thick build – and that’s true – but he is on the smaller side for a down lineman at 6’3”, 255lbs. He has the measurables that better suit a stand-up EDGE who gets after QBs from a wide alignment, but FAU is definitely best as a traditional 4-3 DE. FAU doesn’t hold his ground well enough against the run yet, and he needs improvement as a consistent gap filler. Though he’s quick and bendy enough, FAU doesn’t bring high-end pure speed to the table, and he has a slower get-off too. 

The Bottom Line: So far in this write-up, FAU’s profile sounds similar to that of other EDGE prospects that I’ve already covered: good pass rusher with some flaws and a poor run defender. There’s some truth to that, but I hold a higher opinion of FAU. One, he’s a great pass rusher who’s remarkably refined for a 21 year-old, and I think many within the Draft community are underselling his natural tools. I also loved how competitive and productive FAU remained during his junior season when he faced increased attention from opposing offenses and constant double teams. Two, FAU isn’t much of a run defender yet but I think he can get there with time and more coaching; he has the right stuff to hold his own. Put that all together and you have an extremely young, productive, and high energy EDGE prospect who’s potentially elite against the pass and solid against the run? That sounds like a player 32 of 32 teams would be interested in to me.

Also, one more quick thing: I know the recent history of Big 12 defensive prospects in the NFL Draft is terrible, but that conference has gotten way tougher in recent years and FAU was plenty good enough against Missouri and Tulane in 2022.

Grade: Late First Round / Early Second Round

Pro Comp: Jerry Hughes

Games Watched:

• TCU 2021
• Missouri 2022
• Oklahoma 2022
• Texas Tech 2022
• Oklahoma State 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: LSU

Position: EDGE

Year: Junior

The Good: BJ Ojulari is a plus athlete at EDGE who’s long and bendy; he looks like he was born to play at OLB in a 3-4 scheme. Like his older brother, Azeez Ojulari of the Giants, BJ is a crafty and unpredictable pass rusher with good burst and first steps off the snap. Ojulari beats blockers with quick hands, which also keep him afloat in run defense. He’s a smart player with consistently strong effort, and Ojulari has enough versatility to hang and win from the interior on clear passing downs. He can even cover a little bit too.

The Bad: The downside to being a pass rusher who’s more crafty than twitchy is that Ojulari’s pursuits of the QB are too often out of control. With the quality of offensive linemen about to spike as Ojulari enters the NFL, he’ll need to play with his hands and body in better unison as he loses an athletic edge up on his competition. There isn’t much leg driven power to Ojulari’s pass rush either; he’ll probably be advised to gain 5-10 pounds upon entering the league. Ojulari isn’t a terrible run defender, but he’s generally weak stacking up against the run. His pad level is inconsistent and he just isn’t as strong as the typical pro EDGE yet. 

The Bottom Line: While BJ isn’t as good of a prospect as Azeez was – who fell to Round 2 of the 2021 Draft with some medical concerns – I like this Ojulari brother too and have some confidence that he won’t flame out in the NFL; he’s talented and dedicated enough to have a career. He’s just really young entering the Draft, both literally as a newly 21 year-old and on the field as a player still in the midst of his development. Ojulari runs hot-and-cold right now with his game performances; he looked dominant against Mississippi State but was a complete non-factor against Alabama. I have a hunch that Ojulari will be a more productive player on his second contract than his rookie contract. But as for now, he’s not a special enough prospect to spend a Round 1 pick and live with the growing pains as he works towards his football ceiling. 

Grade: Late Second Round / Early Third Round

Pro Comp: Uchenna Nwosu

Games Watched:

• Texas A&M 2021
• Mississippi State 2022
• Tennessee 2022
• Alabama 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Iowa State

Position: EDGE

Year: Redshirt Senior

The Good: Aside from his relatively slender weight of 240lbs, McDonald looks like he was created in a lab for pass rushers. He somehow has 35” arms despite average height, and his broad jump of 11’ ranks within the Top 10 all-time for EDGE prospects. He’s a total specimen, and his tools translated to on-field production at Iowa State with 34 sacks across his 4+ seasons with the Cyclones. McDonald is explosive off the edge and has great bend around the corner, and he has a strong knack to strip QBs too (10 forced fumbles in his college career). With agile hands and feet, McDonald possesses an advanced set of rush moves for an EDGE just entering the NFL.

The Bad: It’s a good thing that McDonald is such an advanced pass rusher, because he offers next-to-nothing as a run defender. I know that’s harsh, but McDonald just really isn’t cut out for it at the NFL level. ISU didn’t even include him in goal line and heavier personnel packages. His pad level is inconsistent and it looks like he uses everything in his power just to sustain a typical run block on the edge. If he gets locked up in a block, nothing good is coming after that. McDonald needs more consistency as a pass rusher too; a high percentage of his attempts don’t register even close to pressures. You usually like to see high-end speed and power from an EDGE prospect entering the Draft, but McDonald doesn’t really have either.

The Bottom Line: The good news for Will McDonald is that there exists a clear-cut role on NFL rosters that perfectly aligns with his skillset. The bad news is that role is one of a specialist, which alone just about disqualifies McDonald from Round 1 consideration in my book. He’s also going to turn 24 before Week 1 of the next NFL season, and he didn’t exactly dominate as a super senior in the Big 12. (Though McDonald did look dominant at the Senior Bowl.) If McDonald continues to discover and perfect niche rush moves that allow him to win against all types of OTs, then he could have a surprisingly long career. But if this current version of him is the final version of his football development, then it could be a quick NFL stint.

Grade: Late Second Round / Early Third Round

Pro Comp: Bruce Irvin

Games Watched:

• Kansas State 2021
• Clemson 2021
• Baylor 2022
• Texas 2022
• TCU 2022
• Senior Bowl

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Georgia

Position: EDGE

Year: Senior

The Good: Nolan Smith is a phenomenal athlete – if his 40-yard dash time of 4.39 seconds at 238lbs didn’t give that away. Smith plays to his athleticism too; you can probably count the amount of prospects on one hand who have put pass rush and coverage reps on tape as good as Smith’s. And the crazy thing is that those aren’t even the strengths of Smith’s game: he’s an incredible run defender. Smith has absurd lower body strength and contact balance – he’d routinely face linemen who outweighed him by nearly 100 pounds and I literally did not see him hit the ground once – and from there he’s masterful at shedding and splitting blocks. Smith always wins the pad level battle and he has very quick and active hands. As a pass rusher, Smith is twitchy with good footwork, and he’ll enter the NFL with some developed rush moves already in his arsenal.

The Bad: Smith is one of the more well-rounded prospects in this Draft, though there is more projection to his pass rush than the other phases of his game. Part of that is because of Georgia’s laughable dominance and depth that would keep Smith out of the rotation on some passing downs, but he does have personal room for improvement too. Despite his speed, Smith’s get-off is often delayed and should be better synced with snap timings. Smith just needs more ferocity as a pass rusher in general too; even if he’s not running through anyone at his size, Smith should be better at finishing than his quantifiable production at Georgia: 12.5 sacks in 63 career games.

The Bottom Line: I’m a massive Nolan Smith fan, and even if it’s his Combine performance that’s rocketing him up Draft boards when his tape warranted that beforehand – so be it. His skillset is unique and dynamic enough to predict 100% snap counts in the NFL, likely best in the old-school mold of a 4-3 OLB but more than fine as a modern-day EDGE as well. It seems like Micah Parsons is going to become one of those impossible-standard names that scouts and analysts say “he’s the next [blank]” about for years to come, and yet, just two years after Parsons’ Draft, Smith is actually a decent candidate. I wouldn’t go that far, mainly because Smith won’t induce fear as a pass rusher in the way that Parsons does, but Smith could have a similar type of all-around impact as the do-it-all tone setter of a good defense. 

Grade: Top 10 Pick

Pro Comp: Joey Porter

Games Watched:

• Clemson 2021
• Kentucky 2021
• Oregon 2022
• South Carolina 2022
• Missouri 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]