Tag: Fantasy Football

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37 Lessons from Fantasy Football League-Winners

Posted on by PJ Moran

Every year, there are dozens of good picks in fantasy football drafts. That means over the last five years, there have been hundreds of good picks.

But how about game-changing, league-tilting, season-defining picks? By my count, there have been 38 of those picks since 2021.

(And I’m not counting early first-round picks in drafts. Yes, Jahmyr Gibbs or Bijan Robinson could have swung your league last year, but only people with a Top 3 pick could have landed them.)

What were those picks? And what lessons can we learn from them? AKA, who’s most likely to replicate in 2026?

In order of likelihood of occurrence:

The Only Lesson to Occur Twice

  1. Lesson: “Take Any Real-Life Top 5 WR Outside the Top 5 Picks”

Cases: 2024 Ja’Marr Chase (ADP 6, WR4; Finish: WR1) / 2022 Justin Jefferson (ADP 7, WR2; Finish: WR1)

Best Guess for 2026: Justin Jefferson (ADP 12, WR6)

I don’t know anyone who denies that Justin Jefferson is a Top 5 wide receiver in the NFL. Last season, particularly the second half, was rough for fantasy purposes. But…JJ McCarthy. Otherwise, Jefferson has finished as the WR4, WR1, WR5 (by PPG), and WR2.

Runner-Up: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (ADP 7, WR3)

Individual Cases

  1. Lesson: “Take CMC Outside of the Top 5 Picks”

Case: 2025 Christian McCaffrey (ADP 7, RB4; Finish: RB1)

Best Guess for 2026: Christian McCaffrey (ADP 5, RB3)

The book is established on CMC: he only leads all players in fantasy scoring or screws teams over by October 1.

Runner-Up: N/A

  1. Lesson: “Take Derrick Henry in Round 2”

Case: 2024 Derrick Henry (ADP 17, RB8; Finish: RB2)

Best Guess for 2026: Derrick Henry (ADP 17, RB12)

For anyone who counters with Derrick Henry’s age of 32 or his lack of pass catching prowess, I encourage you to log off and look at Derrick Henry. If you want to talk stats, Henry has scored at least 19 PPG (Half PPR) 4 times over the last 7 seasons.

Runner-Up: N/A

  1. Lesson: “Josh Allen Can Outscore the Other QBs by Many PPG”

Case: 2023 Josh Allen (ADP 20, QB2; Finish: QB1)

Best Guess for 2026: Josh Allen (ADP 21, QB1)

Since 2020, Josh Allen has finished as the QB1, QB1, QB2, QB1, QB2, and QB1. In most of those QB1 years, including 2026, he has finished with 1.0 – 2.0 PPG above the next crop of QBs. Like I said atop this article…a good pick! But in 2023, when Allen finished with 2.3 more PPG than the QB2 and 4.8 more PPG than the QB5, that was a league-winning pick.

Runner-Up: N/A

Possible Deja Vu for Same Player

  1. Lesson: “Former Overall RB1s Can Do It Again”

Case: 2025 Jonathan Taylor (ADP 18, RB9; Finish: RB2)

Best Guess for 2026: Jonathan Taylor (ADP 6, RB4)

Jonathan Taylor rushed for over 3,000 yards combined over the last two seasons and is still only 27 years old, but I think people genuinely do forget that he’s responsible for one of the greatest RB seasons of all-time in 2021.

Runner-Up: Saquon Barkley (ADP 12, RB6)

  1. Lesson: “Good TE Who Plays 100% of Snaps in Pass-Heavy Offense”

Case: 2025 Trey McBride (ADP 28, TE2; Finish: TE1)

Best Guess for 2026: Trey McBride (ADP 26, TE2)

I know it’s the Arizona Cardinals, but it remains wild that McBride put up a season of 126/1239/11 and his ADP stayed flat.

Runner-Up: N/A

  1. Lesson: “QB Rushing is King”

Case: 2024 Lamar Jackson (ADP 37, QB4; Finish: QB1)

Best Guess for 2026: Lamar Jackson (ADP 39, QB2)

You do not receive many chances to buy low on Lamar Jackson. Even if Lamar rushes for closer to 700 yards than the 915 he had in 2024, that would make him a high-end QB.

Runner-Up: Jayden Daniels (ADP 62, QB6)

  1. Lesson: “Ringleader of the #1 Offense in the League”

Case: 2024 Joe Burrow (ADP 65, QB8; Finish: QB3)

Best Guess for 2026: Joe Burrow (ADP 53, QB4)

I’m talking out of both sides of my mouth here following the previous lesson, but QBs don’t NEED to be rushing types to crush in fantasy. 4500 passing yards and 40+ TDs will always be extremely valuable.

Runner-Up: Dak Prescott (ADP 80, QB9)

  1. Lesson: “QB Who Can Score 10+ TDs on the Ground”

Case: 2022 Jalen Hurts (ADP 60, QB7; Finish: QB3)

Best Guess for 2026: Jalen Hurts (ADP 62, QB5)

Tush Push or not, Philly has little reason to stop leaning on Hurts around the goal line. And at this ADP, his most affordable in years, the floor on Hurts remains so high.

Runner-Up: Trevor Lawrence (ADP 86, QB10)

  1. Lesson: “40 TDs = A Lot of Points!”

Case: 2024 Baker Mayfield (ADP 158, QB21; Finish: QB4)

Best Guess for 2026: Sam Darnold (ADP 155, QB20)

Baker had seasons of 26, 27, and 28 TDs before popping for 41, so it wasn’t COMPLETELY out of nowhere. Looking at Darnold, he’s thrown for 25 and 35 TDs over the last two seasons.  

Runner-Up: Baker Mayfield (ADP 145, QB18)

Near the Top of the Draft, Not Hard to Envision

  1. Lesson: “Stop Denying That This WR Is One of the Game’s Very Best”

Case: 2025 Puka Nacua (ADP 14, WR7; Finish: WR1)

Best Guess for 2026: Amon-Ra St. Brown (ADP 7, WR4)

It’s easy to forget after Puka put up his most dominant season yet in 2025, but he had his haters going into last year’s fantasy drafts – whether that was because of durability concerns, being a “Stafford merchant,” or something else. To a lesser extreme, it feels like people still ding Amon-Ra for being a low aDOT byproduct of the Lions’ offense. That is…dumb.

Runner-Up: George Pickens (ADP 24, WR10)

  1. Lesson: “There’s a Path Towards 180+ Targets”

Case: 2023 CeeDee Lamb (ADP 12, WR5; Finish: WR1)

Best Guess for 2026: Justin Jefferson (ADP 12, WR6)

This isn’t shortchanging CeeDee’s talent as the reason why he finished as the Overall WR1 in 2023, but having the 8th most single-season targets in a decade certainly helped! You have to look towards offenses without a reliable WR2: I’d say both Minnesota and Houston qualify for that.

Runner-Up: Nico Collins (ADP 23, WR9)

  1. Lesson: “Very Realistic Path to 300+ Carries Behind a Great OL ”

Case: 2021 Jonathan Taylor (ADP 10, RB8; Finish: RB1)

Best Guess for 2026: Saquon Barkley (ADP 12, RB6)

Jonathan Taylor would qualify again here, but let’s pivot to Saquon instead. Lane Johnson and Landon Dickerson stuck around for another year, plus the Eagles made an upgrade at Offensive Coordinator. This one is so simple it’s boring: if Saquon stays healthy, he should rush for 1500+ yards behind that line.

Runner-Up: James Cook (ADP 9, RB5)

  1. Lesson: “Pay Attention When a Team Goes All-In for a Stud WR”

Case: 2022 Tyreek Hill (ADP 22, WR7; Finish: WR2)

Best Guess for 2026: AJ Brown (ADP 20, WR8)

AJ Brown and Tyreek Hill are nearly polar opposite profiles as alpha wide receivers, yet both are 1-of-1 types. And when a team gives up a first-rounder to drop him into a good offense as the lead dog…it could work!

Runner-Up: Jaylen Waddle (ADP 45, WR21)

  1. Lesson: “Biggest Cheat Code in Fantasy is a TE Who Scores Like a WR1”

Case: 2022 Travis Kelce (ADP 15, TE1; Finish: TE1)

Best Guess for 2026: Brock Bowers (ADP 22, TE1)

Travis Kelce in 2022 went for 110/1343/12, finishing as the TE1 by over 5 PPG. Not only that, he would have finished as the Overall WR5. It’s probably the single most boom-bust approach in fantasy football – see 2025 Brock Bowers for the “bust” case – but the upside is unparalleled.

Runner-Up: N/A

  1. Lesson: “WR1 Who Levels Up in New Offense”

Case: 2025 Jaxon Smith-Njigba (ADP 33, WR14; Finish: WR2)

Best Guess for 2026: DeVonta Smith (ADP 32, WR13)

It’s a bit scary how eerily similar the on-paper case is for DeVonta Smith to replicate JSN’s 2025. Both are elite college producers without eye-popping athleticism who had proven themselves as good NFL wideouts without receiving the chance to dominate target share. But then a jacked, problematic Ole Miss alum gets out of his way and…boom.

Runner-Up: Zay Flowers (ADP 37, WR15)

Near the Top of the Draft, Harder to Envision

  1. Lesson: “Could Run + Catch His Way to 20 Total TDs”

Case: 2021 Austin Ekeler (ADP 13, RB10; Finish: RB2)

Best Guess for 2026: Chase Brown (ADP 14, RB8)

Runner-Up: De’Von Achane (ADP 12, RB7)

  1. Lesson: “Explosive RB on New Team That Paid Him A Lot”

Case: 2024 Saquon Barkley (ADP 11, RB5; Finish: RB1)

Best Guess for 2026: Kenneth Walker (ADP 16, RB11)

Runner-Up: Travis Etienne (ADP 38, RB17)

  1. Lesson: “Year 2 RB Ready to Score 20 TDs”

Case: 2024 Jahmyr Gibbs (ADP 12, RB6; Finish: RB2)

Best Guess for 2026: Ashton Jeanty (ADP 16, RB10)

Runner-Up: Omarion Hampton (ADP 16, RB9)

  1. Lesson: “You Haven’t Seen the REAL Breakout Yet”

Case: 2023 Amon-Ra St. Brown (ADP 18, WR10; Finish: WR3)

Best Guess for 2026: Chris Olave (ADP 27, WR11)

Runner-Up: Drake London (ADP 20, WR7)

  1. Lesson: “Don’t Underreact to the Big Rookie Year WR”

Case: 2021 Justin Jefferson (ADP 25, WR7; Finish: WR4)

Best Guess for 2026: Malik Nabers* (ADP 28, WR12)

Runner-Up: Emeka Egbuka (ADP 43, WR19)

  1. Lesson: “1A/1B WR Becomes Clear Top Option on Loaded Offense”

Case: 2021 Cooper Kupp (ADP 45, WR17; Finish: WR1)

Best Guess for 2026: Ladd McConkey (ADP 41, WR18)

Runner-Up: Luther Burden (ADP 54, WR23)

Middle Round Targets

  1. Lesson: “If a Young TE Has Flashed Elite Upside, You’ve Seen Enough”

Case: 2021 Mark Andrews (ADP 52, TE5; Finish: TE1)

Best Guess for 2026: Colston Loveland (ADP 41, TE3)

Runner-Up: Tyler Warren (ADP 50, TE4)

  1. Lesson: “Out of Nowhere Rushing Title from High-Pedigree RB”

Case: 2022 Josh Jacobs (ADP 50, RB22; Finish: RB3)

Best Guess for 2026: Quinshon Judkins (ADP 46, RB20)

Runner-Up: D’Andre Swift (ADP 44, RB19)

  1. Lesson: “WR Who’s Over 30 But Still Dominant When He Plays”

Case: 2023 Keenan Allen (ADP 43, WR19; Finish: WR8)

Best Guess for 2026: Davante Adams (ADP 57, WR25)

Runner-Up: Mike Evans (ADP 68, WR29)

  1. Lesson: “Shut Up About Efficiency, Some TEs are Built Different”

Case: 2024 George Kittle (ADP 60, TE6; Finish: TE2)

Best Guess for 2026: Tucker Kraft (ADP 66, TE5)

Runner-Up: N/A

  1. Lesson: “TE Who Could Catch 100+ Receptions in a Bad Offense”

Case: 2024 Brock Bowers (ADP 98, TE11; Finish: TE1)

Best Guess for 2026: Harold Fannin (ADP 70, TE6)

Runner-Up: Kyle Pitts (ADP 75, TE8)

  1. Lesson: “Swiss-Army-Knife Takes on Bigger Role in Offense”

Case: 2021 Deebo Samuel (ADP 87, WR34; Finish: WR2)

Best Guess for 2026: Parker Washington (ADP 69, WR30)

Runner-Up: Rashid Shaheed (ADP 149, WR54)

  1. Lesson: “20 TD Potential in Big Offense if RB Split Goes His Way”

Case: 2023 Raheem Mostert (ADP 119, RB39; Finish: RB2)

Best Guess for 2026: Kyle Monangai (ADP 98, RB37)

Runner-Up: Chris Rodriguez (ADP 147, RB45)

  1. Lesson: “Ignore the Offseason and Stay Patient with Blue-Chip Rookies”

Case: 2021 Ja’Marr Chase (ADP 74, WR28; Finish: WR5)

Best Guess for 2026: Jordyn Tyson (ADP 116, WR47)

Runner-Up: Carnell Tate (ADP 77, WR32)

Late Round QBs

  1. Lesson: “Never Too Young to Run for 800+ Yards”

Case: 2024 Jayden Daniels (ADP 99, QB12; Finish: QB5)

Best Guess for 2026: Malik Willis (ADP 160, QB21)

Runner-Up: N/A

  1. Lesson: “Year 2 QB Leap, Sneaky Rushing”

Case: 2025 Drake Maye (ADP 120, QB16; Finish: QB2)

Best Guess for 2026: Tyler Shough (ADP 171, QB23)

Runner-Up: Jaxson Dart (ADP 97, QB11)

  1. Lesson: “Bounceback Year Following Bad Offseason”

Case: 2025 Matthew Stafford (ADP 175, QB25; Finish: QB3)

Best Guess for 2026: CJ Stroud (ADP 171, QB24)

Runner-Up: Daniel Jones (ADP 184, QB28)

Last Round Dart Throws

  1. Lesson: “Young, Athletic TE Who Can Score 10 TDs”

Case: 2023 Sam LaPorta (ADP 166, TE17; Finish: TE1)

Best Guess for 2026: Terrance Ferguson (ADP 184, TE22)

Runner-Up: N/A

  1. Lesson: “Size/Speed Freak WR Who Pops in a Surprising Offense”

Case: 2023 Nico Collins (ADP 162, WR57; Finish: WR9)

Best Guess for 2026: Adonai Mitchell (ADP 218, WR79)

Runner-Up: Chris Bell (ADP 212, WR77)

Waiver Wire Miracles

  1. Lesson: “What if He’s the New RB1 on His Team by October?”

Case: 2023 Kyren Williams (ADP 196, RB70; Finish: RB6)

Best Guess for 2026: Sean Tucker (ADP 247, RB70)

Runner-Up: Najee Harris (ADP 200, RB71)

  1. Lesson: “One Vet Injury/Decline Away from Undrafted to Star”

Case: 2023 Puka Nacua (ADP 273, WR87; Finish: WR4)

Best Guess for 2026: Ryan Flournoy (ADP 234, WR84)

Runner-Up: Pat Bryant (ADP 234, WR83)

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Is Josh Allen the new Travis Kelce of fantasy football? Not exactly…but kinda?!

Posted on by PJ Moran

From 2018 to 2022, Travis Kelce had one of the more uniquely dominant five-season stretches in fantasy football history. Kelce scored 1,440 PPR fantasy points across those five seasons; the second highest scoring tight end during that span, George Kittle, scored 1,005 total PPR points. That gap between Kelce and Kittle is larger than the gap between Kittle and the TE12 over that time (Mike Gesicki). On an annual basis, Kelce finished as the TE1, TE1, TE1, TE2, and TE1, respectively, among tight ends from 2018 to 2022.

With hindsight being 20/20, Kelce was worth a first-round pick in fantasy drafts heading into each of those seasons. There was no better edge than having Kelce on your roster putting up the numbers of a WR1 when your league-mates limped to 7 points per game out of their tight ends. The fantasy football collective gets a pass for not identifying Kelce’s first-round value heading into 2018, his true breakout season into fantasy superstardom; his ADP was 28th overall that year. His overall ADP (slightly) crept up over the next few years:

2019: 17

2020: 18

2021: 12

2022: 14

With the limited exception from 2021 following Kelce’s outrageous 105/1416/11 season in 2020, most drafters missed out on golden years from Kelce because they were too afraid to allocate their first picks to a tight end – even the most bankable tight end we’ve ever seen in fantasy football in his prime.

And now, only a couple of years later, it seems like something similar might be happening with another of the NFL’s biggest stars. Josh Allen has been the top fantasy quarterback since 2020 almost any way you slice it. Patrick Mahomes has done an admirable job keeping the QB1 race (somewhat) close, but he’s also masking the total dominance of Allen over every other QB. The 2020-2023 cumulative gap between Allen and the QB3 during that stretch (Justin Herbert) is larger than the gap between Herbert and the QB15 (Matt Stafford). Annually, Allen has finished as the QB1, QB1, QB2, and QB1 over the last four seasons. On the most surface level, it’s similar positional supremacy to Kelce at his peak.

This begs the question: should Josh Allen be in line for the first-round treatment that Travis Kelce deserved but only occasionally received from 2018-2022? Going off early indicators for 2024 drafts, it’s an even more controversial proposition for Allen than it ever was for Kelce; Allen’s current ADP average is 22nd overall! 

The arguments against taking a QB highly in drafts, let alone with a top pick, are well-documented: you only start one of them in standard formats, there are multiple elite options at the position (Mahomes, Jalen Hurts), etc. Mainly though, fantasy football is a game of trying to outwit the opposition at as many positions as possible rather than trying to accumulate the most points, which quarterbacks do best. Managers are looking for a game-breaker with their first-round pick, and unless there was a surefire 2010 Michael Vick or 2018 Lamar Jackson season heading into drafts, in theory it tracks to target a skill player.

To what end, though? If Josh Allen is performing that much ahead of other players at his position, when does it make sense to pull the trigger on him? Might we be getting this totally wrong?!

Let’s take names out of the equation for a moment and look at the basics for Top 10 finishers at primary fantasy positions over the last four years.

 QBRBWRTE
# of Top 10 annual finishers over 4 years24292624
# of Top 10 finishers in 4 of 4 years2 (Allen, Mahomes)02 (Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs)2 (Kelce, Mark Andrews)
# of Top 10 finishers in 3 of 4 years3 (+ Jalen Hurts)1 (Derrick Henry)4 (+ Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams)3 (+ George Kittle)
Standard Deviation, Top 10 Range1.19 – 3.112.30 – 3.181.91 – 2.341.65 – 3.00
Standard Deviation, Top 10 Four-Year Average1.962.712.342.43

·   Top 10 finishers by total points, THEN sorted by PPG (Half-PPR). Availability matters!

·   I am using 2019-2022 in this analysis for tight ends to mirror Travis Kelce’s four-year curve. For standard deviation measurements, the time frame remains 2018-2022.

So, what does this begin to tell us? First, do not draft Josh Allen before anyone who you legitimately believe might end the season as the overall RB1. Premier running backs will always offer the highest ceiling among players on the board in fantasy football. Especially at the very top of drafts with the Christian McCaffrey’s of the world available, the reward is likely worth the risk. (The RB cliff is STEEP though, and the bottom can just fall out for ANY running back.)

After that confirmation of elite RB value, a top observation is that QBs are, on average, the flattest position among Top 10 performers – something that, in theory, doesn’t bode well for the prospects of Josh Allen as a top fantasy pick. That said, the gap isn’t all that wide; in fact, it’s interesting to see that Top 10 WRs are positionally placed exactly between RBs and QBs in terms of four-year average variance when wideouts are much more frequently correlated with RBs than QBs. Also, while the flattest single season for one position in this span belonged to QBs – every Top 10 QB in 2020 averaged at least 21.9 PPG – the second HIGHEST variance season among all fantasy positions in this span also belonged to QBs! And if you believe in patterns, then you should note that QB has been MUCH more of a boom-or-bust position in the last two seasons than it was from 2020-2021. Just last season, Josh Allen outscored the QB10 (Baker Mayfield) by a whopping 7.5 PPG. To put that in perspective, that would be equivalent to the team with Mayfield having an extra roster spot with Dallas Goedert in it.

To start to culminate this exercise, let’s bring names back into the equation. In addition to Allen and Kelce, it’s great that we have consistent Top 10 data across all four years from Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs, too.

To reach the below percentages:

1.      For each season individually, I took that player’s PPG and subtracted it from the 3rd ranking player’s PPG. For example, in 2023 I took Josh Allen’s 24.2 PPG and subtracted Lamar Jackson’s 21.1 PPG from it.

2.      Whatever the difference – which could be positive, negative, or zero – I divided that by the standard deviation across the Top 10 in that particular season. Sticking with the above example, I divided 3.1 (QB1-QB3) by 2.27 (STDDEV) to reach 1.36, or 136%.

3.      I repeated the same for all four seasons in the span – five in the case of Kelce and tight ends – then also repeated against the 5th and 10th ranking players’ PPGs.

4.      I averaged out the percentages over the spans.

2020-2023 (QB/WR)
2018-2022 (TE)		AllenHillDiggsKelce
vs QB3/WR3/TE390%15%-97%130%
vs QB5/WR5/TE5172%106%-20%199%
vs QB10/WR10/TE10293%192%80%299%

These results are more of the eye-of-the-beholder type. Personally, however, I cannot ignore Tyreek Hill’s percentages here – which are indicative of the alpha fantasy wideout. Beyond being over 100% more bankable than the typical WR5 overall on a season and nearly 200% over the typical WR10, don’t sleep on how ridiculously impressive it is that Hill performed ON AVERAGE above the typical WR3 overall even when accounting for fluctuation across other performers at the position. When you look back to the first table and remember that WRs have, by far, the thinnest range of year-over-year outcomes compared to the other positions – plus the obvious consideration that most fantasy leagues require 3+ WRs in starting lineups now – it becomes harder and harder to build a good argument for taking Josh Allen over wideouts with a realistic shot at finishing as the overall WR1 – WR3 on the season.

Then things get interesting, though. For a Stefon Diggs type of fantasy wideout, a veteran with static year-over-year ADPs near the Round 1/Round 2 turn, that quite evidently is seldom a league-winning player but should return positive value as a WR1 for your particular fantasy team – just maybe not the overall rankings. Looking at current 2024 ADPs, players like AJ Brown or Davante Adams could fit this bill.

Again, this is where eye-of-the-beholder fantasy preferences and strategies take over. I wouldn’t fault any fantasy manager for taking an extremely reliable wideout like Brown with their first pick and then swinging for the fences with their second or third pick. But, I’ll also be real with this data staring me in the face, you might want to take Josh Allen instead if you are seeking a true league-winner with your top pick! (This logic would apply to the top TE too, but there isn’t a clear top dog at that position with a track record heading into 2024.)

So, let’s now answer the question that kicked this whole thing off: should Josh Allen be in line for the first-round treatment that Travis Kelce deserved but only occasionally received from 2018-2022? 

There isn’t one cut-and-dry answer, but I’d start with a “not exactly.” Kelce seriously was 1-of-1 when it came to year-over-year dominance over even the best of the best of his peers at the position. Especially in best ball formats or more casual leagues without many transactions or lineup changes, Allen doesn’t keep pace with peak Kelce as a set-and-forget fantasy machine.

When you begin to widen the parameters though, even slightly, my answer becomes more of “…kinda!” The gap between Allen and Kelce over their QB3/TE3 counterparts shrinks a lot once you zoom out to their QB5/TE5 counterparts, and then the gap is basically gone between them once you get to QB10/TE10 benchmarks! Meaning that, in redraft leagues of 10+ members, the numbers indicate that you would have a remarkably similar edge with Josh Allen that prime Travis Kelce offered over STARTERS in lineups across your league.

So yes, in the regard of being a more bankable force multiplier than the lowest tier of starters at the position, 2024 Josh Allen is right there with 2018-2022 Travis Kelce.

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