School: Illinois

Position: CB

Year: Senior

The Good: I’m not sure any player has rocketed up draft boards over the past 365 days like Devon Witherspoon, and it’s for plenty of good reasons. Witherspoon has some of the most fun tape in this class independent of position: he wants to win battles vs WRs at the line of scrimmage, is psychotic in pursuit, and lays the wood for a CB. In coverage, Witherspoon is a sticky man coverage CB who hangs in the hip pockets of wideouts. He has quick action, both in his feet and hips, so he’s great at mirroring. Witherspoon has good ball skills; his breaks on the ball are sudden and he’s advanced at turning his head to play the ball at the last moment. He’s a smart player who showed an advanced understanding of his defense, and he’s athletic enough to recover and avoid getting badly burned.

The Bad: While it feels unfair to hold someone’s high school ratings against them, especially after they became All-Americans in college like Witherspoon, I do think it’s important to note that Witherspoon was a zero-star recruit because his traits remain subpar for a likely Round 1 player. Witherspoon did run his 40 in a respectable time in the mid-4.4’s range at his Pro Day, but he avoided all other testing and his measurables are low across the board: weight is 10th percentile, wingspan is 18th percentile, hand size is 25th percentile. The NFL Draft history of highly drafted CBs with that lack of size and without gamebreaking speed is extremely scarce, so Witherspoon is an outlier. On the field, he’s definitely not a perfect prospect either. His recognition is regularly late so he’s typically just not very good in zone coverages. In man coverage, he can get himself into trouble by jumping routes and he can get turned around in off man coverage too. He’s extremely physical which leads to risky coverage and a good deal of potentially penalized plays. Witherspoon is an excellent tackler for a CB, but he can be too aggressive in run defense and sometimes he doesn’t take good angles at ball carriers.

The Bottom Line: Don’t get it wrong: Witherspoon is a good prospect. I just wish he had the narrative of one that fans would hope their team snags towards the end of Round 1, not one who’s presumably gone by the Top 10. Typically with the drawn out process of NFL Draft evaluation, we collectively put personal affection for players’ tape aside and compromise with historical trends and athletic testing metrics…but that hasn’t really happened for Witherspoon yet so it might not happen at all. Also, more attention is usually given to advantageous surroundings for certain players. Maybe it’s because Witherspoon went to Illinois so we subconsciously give him a pass, but the entire Fighting Illini secondary from 2021-2022 are going to be Top 100 picks in the Draft, and Illinois’ coaching staff put them in positions to succeed. Clearly I’m keeping my guard up when it comes to Witherspoon, but I do have a fair amount of confidence that he’ll be a good player in the NFL. He has true inside/outside versatility, is clearly as mentally tough as they come at CB, and put some true high-level play on tape as a senior – he starred against Michigan. I don’t think a team that drafts Witherspoon with a lottery pick is necessarily going to get burnt by it, but he is different from CBs who typically go in that range.

Grade: Late First Round / Early Second Round

Pro Comp: Tracy Porter

Games Watched:

• Nebraska 2021
• Wyoming 2022
• Virginia 2022
• Minnesota 2022
• Michigan 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Maryland

Position: CB

Year: Redshirt Junior

The Good: Deonte Banks was generally viewed as a third or fourth tier CB in this class until the Combine, where Banks put everyone on notice with one of the greatest jumping performances in the history of the event: 42” vert (97th percentile) and 12’4” broad (98th percentile). Oh, he also ran a 4.35 seconds 40. I hope Banks’ athletic display led to anyone who rushed his ranking to go back and watch his tape…because his tape is also really good! He plays to his traits and is extremely physical at nearly 200lbs. He’s a monster in press coverage, and even if he loses a step he’s nearly impossible to complete a deep ball against with his speed and explosiveness. I was fired up to discover that Banks is not only a freaky athlete but also an extremely heady player. On top of great discipline in zone coverage, Banks is constantly calling out pre-snap signals and alerting his teammates to things. As if that all isn’t enough, Banks is an awesome tackler too. 

The Bad: You know how some cornerbacks look like they could play both ways, or at least evidently have experience at wideout? Yeah…that’s not Banks. He definitely plays the ball like a defender, and he should be stronger at the catch point than he’s shown on tape. Banks also doesn’t read the eyes of the QB enough; he could stand to take more chances than he does. Banks’ feisty on-field demeanor is largely a good thing, but it does rear its head when Banks loses balance and stumbles or gets into hand fights in the run game when he really should just calmly contain on the edge. 

The Bottom Line: Banks does have areas of his game to work on, but the biggest things working against his Draft stock are largely outside of his control: a bad shoulder injury caused him to miss most of the 2021 season, and because of that and the COVID-shortened 2020 season (Maryland played 5 games) Banks hits the Draft with less experience than the majority of his peers who he’d like to hear his name announced before on April 27. Still, Banks is an extremely exciting prospect at a valuable position. I’ve been burnt by overlooking inexperience and injury history before with favorite prospects of mine, so I’m mildly tempering the fanfare of Banks, but I’d otherwise have a Top 10 Pick grade on him. He’s that explosive, quick, smart, and tough. I’ll slightly downgrade him though, but he’s still the CB2 for me and going to rank highly on my final Big Board. And all of those mock drafts pegging him in the mid-20s? Ignore those, he’s going earlier than that in actuality too.

Grade: Mid First Round

Pro Comp: Marshon Lattimore

Games Watched:

• West Virginia 2021
• Michigan 2022
• Purdue 2022
• Ohio State 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Oregon (2022), Colorado (2020-2021)

Position: CB

Year: Junior

The Good: Christian Gonzalez is a stunning athlete, almost like he’s the younger brother of an Olympian. (He is.) Gonzalez ran his 40-yard dash in 4.38 seconds at nearly 200lbs, and that wasn’t even the most impressive thing he did at the Combine: both his vertical jump and broad jump were in the 95-96th percentile. Gonzalez is such a dynamic athlete on the field and yet he is so smooth at the same time. It looks effortless for him to flip his hips, turn and run, and break on underneath passes. Gonzalez easily runs step-for-step with wideouts, and he is adept at using his hands without being grabby. On top of his ridiculous skill, Gonzalez is very instinctual and an above average tackler for a CB.

The Bad: Honestly, there isn’t a glaring flaw to Gonzalez’s game or profile – hence my grade on him. But if I had to identify areas where Gonzalez can get better, he’s currently better in man coverage than zone coverage because he tends to get stuck with his focus on route runners rather than his zone on the field. Still, Gonzalez has the smarts and the length (32” arms) to thrive in a zone-heavy scheme. I’d say that he has so/so ball skills because Gonzalez at times doesn’t track the ball into receivers’ hands, but he can also go up and get any ball over a WR and posted solid statistical production at Oregon (4 INTs in 2022). He’s an inconsistent run defender on the edge and doesn’t look as comfortable in the slot…but I’m definitely nitpicking now for a CB1 type.

The Bottom Line: Christian Gonzalez is an absolutely tremendous prospect. He checks all of the boxes: production, tools, age…he’s still 20 years old. Gonzalez isn’t exactly flying under the radar – he’s a consensus Top 10 pick in mock drafts now – but he is underrated because this is a true blue-chip prospect we’re talking about in a class where most people seem to think there are only 2 or 3 of them – not including Gonzalez. Last year, I ranked Sauce Gardner in the No. 2 spot on my Big Board, which – quick brag – was higher than just about anyone else who puts a board together. But I was still too low on Sauce; he should have been in my top spot, but I gave preference to an EDGE (Kayvon Thibodeaux) over the CB. I still would rank EDGE above CB in terms of positional value, especially with respect to longevity, but Sauce proved what an NFL-ready rookie CB can do right away. Now, Gonzalez wasn’t as dominant as Sauce in his final collegiate season; Sauce seriously could have won the Heisman. But don’t get it wrong…Gonzalez was freaking dominant at Oregon. He wasn’t targeted until the 3rd quarter against Georgia, then he shut down BYU to a laughable degree, and then he was barely tested from there on. Following a late TD in the Week 1 game vs Georgia, the literal only significant completion that I witnessed on Gonzalez was a simultaneous catch ruling that went against him in the Washington game. So, will Gonzalez also be an All-Pro as a rookie? Probably not, but he could – which speaks volumes – AND he’s also one of the most naturally athletic CB prospects ever. Unless your team is drafting a QB, you should want your team to draft Christian Gonzalez.

Grade: Top 5 Pick

Pro Comp: Stephon Gilmore

Games Watched:

• Cal 2021
• Georgia 2022
• BYU 2022
• Stanford 2022
• UCLA 2022
• Washington 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Iowa

Position: LB

Year: Senior

The Good: Jack Campbell, standing at 6’5” and 250lbs with that name at the University of Iowa, is basically what you think of when you close your eyes and think of a middle linebacker. He leaves Iowa as a massively productive player for the Hawkeyes, culminating with the 2022 Butkus Award as the best linebacker in the country. Campbell is a force in the middle of the field, holding his own between the tackles and very willingly taking on blockers. Campbell is a proven gap filler, and he flashes good enough closing speed outside of the tackle box. Campbell is a better run defender than pass defender, but he’s shown on tape that he can make plays in coverage by reading the eyes of QBs. Campbell doesn’t exactly look athletically limited on the field, but he still caught people by surprise with his outrageous testing at the Combine: both his broad jump and 3-cone were above the 90th percentile for linebackers.

The Bad: The flaws in Campbell’s game are predictable, but they are flaws nonetheless. He’s way too aggressive in pursuit, which leads to a fair share of missed tackles – especially in the open field. This also shows up when Campbell heavily bites on play action. Campbell also has room for improvement in stacking to better position himself to get off blocks; right now, he basically just runs square into every blocker. In coverage, Campbell’s eyes get stuck in the backfield and he’s often a step late to carry WRs and TEs.

The Bottom Line: 50 years ago, Jack Campbell might be the first overall pick in the Draft. Even 10 years ago, Campbell might have been a first-round lock with his combination of production and athletic testing. Now, teams are justifiably more apprehensive about this style of run-and-hit linebacker in a passing-heavy league. You also worry about Campbell’s longevity as he plays like a contact-welcoming, helmet-first maniac. Still, he should rack up huge tackle stats right from the jump and whenever he’s on the field, and it’s important to note that he kept improving as he played more games. Even if the league has gotten smarter, hopefully they don’t overlook for too long come Draft weekend that Campbell could still be a good player.

Grade: Late Second Round / Early Third Round

Pro Comp: Leighton Vander Esch

Games Watched:

• Kentucky 2021
• Iowa State 2022
• Michigan 2022
• Ohio State 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Clemson

Position: LB

Year: Junior

The Good: Trenton Simpson is a former five-star recruit and it’s easy to see why. His body looks like it was chiseled from stone, and then he went out and ran a 4.43 40 at the Combine (97th percentile for linebackers) and put up 25 reps on the bench press. When linebackers with Simpson’s size/speed combo connect when blitzing or crashing down on a screen, it looks really good.

The Bad: Simpson is a tweener between linebacker and safety, and I highly doubt it’s physically possible for him to add any more muscle to his 235lbs frame. He does not look the part of a linebacker against the run. His contact balance is lacking, he doesn’t set the edge well, and he’s not a sure tackler. Simpson struggles to force WRs and TEs off their routes in man coverage, and he’s not very instinctual in zone coverage either. He’s somehow too aggressive in coverage yet too apprehensive as a pass rusher.

The Bottom Line: This profile of off-ball linebacker just never works out with high picks in the NFL Draft. Seriously, this isn’t personal about Trenton Simpson; go back and look at my write-ups on Jamin Davis, Patrick Queen, etc. Well, this next part is personal, but I have a lower grade on Simpson than those guys anyway. There are just very few high-level plays on his tape to offset the myriad of concerning plays. Granted, this game was played 1.5 years ago, but Simpson’s tape against Georgia is as rough as I’ve seen from a rumored Day 1 prospect. There is a burgeoning case that heavy NFL Draft investment into off-ball linebackers is more wasteful than into running backs, due to the unpredictable nature and almost impossible outcome for an immediately seamless college-to-NFL transition at the position. I’ll vouch for the general positional value of off-ball linebackers in the NFL, but becoming a good player there takes time and players like Simpson with plenty of natural talent but without demonstrable abilities to cover and stop the run should go in the back half of the Draft.

Grade: Day 3

Pro Comp: Jarrad Davis

Games Watched:

• Georgia 2021
• South Carolina 2021
• Wake Forest 2022
• NC State 2022
• Florida State 2022

School: Arkansas (2022), Alabama (2020-2021)

Position: LB

Year: Junior

The Good: Drew Sanders started his college career at Alabama as a big-time EDGE recruit, but he transferred to Arkansas and transitioned to linebacker. Still, those pass rush chops didn’t go anywhere. Sanders posted a crazy high pressure rate on his pure pass rush snaps, and he finished a good deal of those rushes too – 9.5 sacks in 2022. He probably is too lean to play EDGE full-time in the NFL though, so he made the right move for his future in moving to LB. Sanders will immediately become one of the taller off-ball LBs in the NFL at 6’4”, and he maximizes his length and plays with great instincts. He’s a plus athlete with good spatial awareness in coverage; Sanders consistently keeps his eyes on the QB without losing his place on the field. He makes clean breaks on the ball and can lay the wood. 

The Bad: Whenever a prospect is described as a “work in progress” in a certain phase of the game, that typically means he currently isn’t very good at it – and that’s true when it comes to Sanders against the run. He needs to get better at taking on contact and standing his ground on runs right at him up the middle, and he isn’t particularly quick to shed blocks either. His background as a pass rusher also bites him in the ass at times now that he plays a position that requires patience; Sanders sometimes bites too heavily on play action and abandons his zone coverage in pursuit of receivers. Though an otherwise plus athlete, Sanders’ play speed is more fine than good, and he needs to clean up his tackling too.

The Bottom Line: Drew Sanders is such a fun prospect, and it’s hard not to get excited about what he could become with his pedigree and only one full year of experience at linebacker. Though his game still has holes in it, you observe growth in Sanders’ game when you watch his 2022 film sequentially; he was much better vs. the run in Arkansas’ game against Alabama. Even if Sanders develops into a decent run defender, he should be a positive presence in coverage and one of the better pass rushing LBs in the NFL. You can argue all you want about the positional value of off-ball linebacker, but if Sanders clicks then he could become one of the more impactful players in this class at any position.

Grade: Late First Round / Early Second Round

Pro Comp: Derrick Johnson

Games Watched:

• Cincinnati 2022
• South Carolina 2022
• Texas A&M 2022
• Alabama 2022
• BYU 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Michigan

Position: DT

Year: Redshirt Junior

The Good: Mazi Smith is a freaking load of a DT prospect at 325lbs with nearly 34” arms, but don’t get him confused for a nose tackle who will just close his eyes and push forward. Smith is very twitched up for a NT; he didn’t top Bruce Feldman’s annual ‘Freaks List’ article by accident. Though Smith sadly didn’t test for the most part at the Combine, he flashed enough on tape as a pass rusher to prove that the hype around his tools isn’t a manufactured marketing campaign out of Ann Arbor. Smith also boasts absurd upper body strength. The one drill he completed at the Combine was the bench press, which is usually the dumbest drill but Smith’s count of 34 reps is a meaningful number (tied for second among all participants).

The Bad: Those in the NFL Draft community who are highest on Mazi Smith typically land there due to his ability against the run, but I don’t totally see it. Don’t get me wrong: he’s fine as a run stuffer and certainly has the build to become elite at it, but he’s far away from reaching that status in my opinion. Go back and watch the TCU tape before opening any debate on the subject with me. Smith isn’t the immovable object vs the run that I expected, largely because he doesn’t play with enough leverage. His hand usage also isn’t very good right now, which shows up when he fails to quickly shed blocks. Smith’s hand pop also doesn’t match his raw strength and, while I’m more optimistic about Smith as a pass rusher, he isn’t refined in that department. I wouldn’t exactly bang the table for Smith’s on-field motor either.

The Bottom Line: Mazi Smith is…fine? I’m almost mad at myself for hitting the point of him topping Feldman’s column so early in this profile because honestly it feels like that’s the top bullet point on Smith’s resume. There’s projection left to his game, sure, but I really don’t think Mazi Smith is some ball of clay that NFL coaches can mold into a superstar like some other people apparently do. He played quite a bit at Michigan over the past two years; I think this version of him is close to the finished product. Which, again, is fine. I see him as a starting-caliber DT – and capable NT – who can log high snap counts.

Grade: Late Second Round / Early Third Round

Pro Comp: Johnathan Hankins

Games Watched:

• Iowa 2022
• Penn State 2022
• Ohio State 2022
• TCU 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Pittsburgh

Position: DT

Year: Redshirt Junior

The Good: Calijah Kancey comes into this NFL Draft as one of the prospects with the most recognition, on the back of his unanimous selection to the 2022 All-American Team then 4.67 40-yard dash time at the NFL Combine that tied the record for defensive tackles. Putting his accolades aside, on the field Kancey plays with the speed and suddenness that he showcased at the Combine. He can climb from gap-to-gap in a flash, and you can blink and miss when Kancey shoots gaps off the snap. With his extremely active hands on top of that, there are some plays where interior linemen barely touch Kancey before he collapses the pocket. That’s usually how Kancey wins, though he does have some technical rush moves down too.

The Bad: I’ll mainly stick to the pass rushing phase of Kancey’s game with discussion of cons, because he looked small enough against the run in the ACC that I’m not sure it even warrants discussion how he’d phase against the run in the NFL. So, as a pass rusher, Kancey really doesn’t attack linemen with much power – even when he’s able to lock into them. That lack of power aside, Kancey doesn’t stack on top of blockers much because he kinda can’t. Undersized DT prospects are nothing new, but Kancey’s measurables at 281lbs (4th percentile) and 30.5” arms (1st percentile) are still shocking. Naturally, he’s not able to swim over even the shortest of blockers at his dimensions, so his access to a wider array of rush moves is limited. Kancey frequently tries to spin off blockers following initial contact to compensate for this, but it didn’t work much in college and will work even less in the NFL.

The Bottom Line: Yeah…I’m skeptical of Calijah Kancey’s transition to the NFL and totally fade the projection of him as a first-round player. He’s obviously a fun prospect who posted ridiculously high pressure stats in college, but arguably no prospect has had his narrative get more out-of-hand during the elongated pre-Draft process than him. The comparisons to Aaron Donald are expected given their shared status as Pitt alumni at smaller sizes for a defensive tackle, but those are silly. Donald is 1-of-1, and even if he wasn’t, Kancey doesn’t destroy solo blocking nearly to the degree that Donald did at Pitt. I also can’t believe that more attention hasn’t been given to Kancey’s snap shares in college; he was a truly rotational player in 2021 and even somewhat rotational in 2022 as well. He also isn’t particularly versatile, as his pass rush chops didn’t slide over to his occasional reps at EDGE. Kancey missed time with a shoulder injury in 2022 as well…and I’m piling on at this point to a degree that isn’t exactly fair for a potentially impactful and easy-to-root-for role player who shouldn’t have entered the Round 1 conversation in the first place in my opinion. 

Grade: Third Round

Pro Comp: Milton Williams

Games Watched:

• Clemson 2021
• Wake 2021
• West Virginia 2022
• Tennessee 2022
• UNC 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Clemson

Position: DT

Year: Junior

The Good: Bryan Bresee is an easy prospect to root for, with extremely high effort for a dude who tips the scales at 300lbs. Bresee is a very plus athlete for his weight and position; he’s an excellent mover who’s really quick off the snap. Bresee has both quick and powerful hands, which make him one of the better DT prospects at countering offensive linemen in recent years. Bresee flashes dominance as a 3-tech when he connects on timing and pad level, and he’s proven that he can beat OTs in straight-up battles too. Between his flashier plays, Bresee is a reliable run defender on the interior who excels at shooting gaps. He consistently gets his hands up in passing lanes too.  

The Bad: Bresee is inconsistently disruptive as a pass rusher, which naturally is the top knock against him. On some reps, he’s nowhere close to the QB at the time of release. Bresee is plenty strong but he doesn’t rush with much power; he’s way more the type to brawl in the trenches than drive back a lineman into the pocket. Bresee is pretty upright and tight-hipped too, which can’t really be fixed. Bresee is a strong run defender behind his natural talent and grasp of the position, though he is lighter than the typical IDL so he does get moved off his spot at times.

The Bottom Line: Skepticism over Bresee as a potential Round 1 prospect is understandable, given that his recent game tape is up-and-down and somewhat limited. Bresee gets a pass though, given that he dealt with personal tragedy and a freaking kidney infection that fluctuated his weight during the 2022 season. Towards the end of the season, particularly the ACC Championship Game against North Carolina, Bresee looked back to the part of a surefire first-rounder to me. We’ve already seen great football from Bresee at Clemson, and I’d bet that consistently great football is ahead in Bresee’s NFL future. Even if he’s a prototypical 3-4 DE, Bresee can thrive in any scheme and should be an every-down player. The below comp is admittedly lofty, but if it all clicks then it’s not an unrealistic projection for Bresee. 

Grade: Mid First Round

Pro Comp: Cam Heyward

Games Watched:

• Georgia 2021
• Wake Forest 2022
• Syracuse 2022
• North Carolina 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]

School: Georgia

Position: DT

Year: Junior

The Good: In a year without many can’t-miss prospects – I usually can’t stand that summation of draft classes but actually agree with it for the most part for 2023 – Jalen Carter is likely the most dominant on-field player of the whole bunch. Carter is a monster when he’s playing at 100%; he’s damn near impossible to stop if he gets underneath or hits the inside shoulder of an interior lineman. Carter gets past blockers with remarkable quickness and he does so consistently, to the point where there were actually too many immediate pass rush wins up the middle for me to list while evaluating his tape. Carter has truly absurd power and strength from head to toe; he can basically shot put offensive linemen. Carter is an excellent run defender too, as he reliably fills gaps and can absorb any and all blocks while standing his ground. He has extremely quick hands to shed blocks, and he’s great at getting his hands up in passing lanes too. Carter required constant double teams in the back half of his tenure at Georgia, where he still was able to make a direct impact on plays.

The Bad: There aren’t many natural flaws to Carter’s game, though I do think there are a few. In grinding his tape, I caught him off balance more than I expected as a casual observer of his games. Carter explodes towards QBs as well as any DT prospect I’ve personally graded, though I don’t think he’s as special when it comes to making tight turns in the pocket. Like I mentioned, Carter has great hands and is already a stout run defender, but I think he can get even better in that regard with more consistency. He misses with his initial strike sometimes too. Besides that, I think the low points in Carter’s tape mainly boil down to effort – which is somewhat expected for a 315-pounder on a high snap count but also fair to write personally about Carter. He doesn’t always fight back too well when he loses initial engagement, and he loses the pad level battle more than you’d like to see from him. 

The Bottom Line: The pre-Draft saga of Jalen Carter obviously isn’t all about his on-field performance. Hell, I’d say it’s even less than 50% about it at this point. I want to do my best to stick to Jalen Carter as a player in this summary, even if teams are weighing the selection of Carter as a player and a person. I just don’t know the kid nor do I know people who do know the kid, and I’ve been burnt in the past by downgrading prospects for off-field stuff when the NFL willingly overlooks a lot of it. Still, I expect to slightly downgrade Carter on my Big Board after all of these developments – especially the out-of-shape and incomplete Pro Day performance – when I already noted him acting out and playing with low energy on tape. I do think he falls a bit further in the Draft itself than people are projecting come April 27 too, though whoever does land Carter will be adding a scheme-proof player with the ability to shut down an opposing offense almost by himself.

Grade: Top 10 Pick

Pro Comp: Ndamukong Suh

Games Watched:

• Clemson 2021
• Kentucky 2021
• Alabama 2021
• Oregon 2022
• Florida 2022
• Tennessee 2022
• LSU 2022

Plays That Matter [LINK]