The MVP decisions in baseball this season will inevitably go down as some of the least dramatic in the history of the sport: Aaron Judge will win in the American League and Shohei Ohtani will win in the National League.
And yet, while Ohtani has been the NL’s frontrunner for months now, his coronation wasn’t such a sure thing a few weeks ago. Francisco Lindor kept the race alive with his excellent and often clutch two-way play leading the Mets’ late charge into the playoff picture. Ohtani shut the door on debate with his otherworldly September, but not early enough for me – and likely others – to ask the question: can we quantify Lindor’s impact on Mets wins compared to Ohtani’s impact on Dodgers wins?
It’s not only a fair proposition with Ohtani being a full-time DH in 2024 compared to Lindor being a shortstop (and an elite one); it’s also a mostly fair question to pose on the basis of the Dodgers not exactly needing Ohtani heading into this season. They have Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez and Will Smith in the lineup too, and they had made the playoffs in 11 consecutive seasons with NL West titles in 10 of them. The Mets, on the other hand, have only made the playoffs twice since 2015, and they didn’t escape the Wild Card Round in either of those years. And while they have several above-average offensive players, Lindor is basically lapping his next-closest teammates in overall value on the season.
That note on player value brings us to WAR (Wins Above Replacement), which I have zero intent of dissing in this exercise. WAR, simply put, is one of the greatest statistical advancements in MLB’s long history. It does an excellent job of encapsulating one player’s total and well-rounded worth to his team’s win/loss record compared to the average Triple-A player they could call up in his place. Award voting in baseball still has its blemishes, but WAR has led the charge away from the days of MVP travesties like Justin Morneau over Derek Jeter or Juan Gonzalez over Alex Rodriguez because the winning players drove in more runs.
And yet, it does feel like we’ve entered a realm where the pendulum has swung too far and WAR is now the end-all-be-all stat for MVP discourse. Like I’ve established, it’s a great stat, but there is admittedly something lame about a baseball stat that you can’t visualize on the field itself. Also, it’s definitely weird that WAR is defined differently, and not minor differences in some cases, by its two sources: Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Add in the consideration that advanced defensive stats, albeit improving yet still murky at best, are a key component of WAR, and it’s not hard to understand why it would be nice to have an alternate counter for player wins.
That brings us to WPA (Win Probability Added), another imperceivable yet valuable and easy to understand stat: how much – by fractions of 100% – did a player’s directly responsible plays add or detract from his team’s mathematical odds of winning that game? Cumulative WPA is a solid stat and does receive some attention from voters during awards season, but I chose to instead investigate WPA on a game-by-game basis. Because, at the end of the day, baseball is unique in its 162-game season that still always comes down to 1 or 2 games for many teams on either the right or wrong side of the postseason bracket.
Also, I do think it’s fun that MLB currently faces somewhat of an inverse groupthink situation compared to other sports, including football at both the professional and college levels. In those sports, to much public outcry, the MVP/Heisman is usually handed to the quarterback on the best team regardless if he was actually the “best” player in the sport. Meanwhile, largely due to WAR in baseball, MVPs are usually given to the most dominant player across all innings regardless of his circumstances. There is practically nonexistent distinction for whether WAR-generating plays occurred in the 1st vs 9th innings or in back-and-forth vs blowout contests. Moments should matter though, and – aside from usually rewarding a player from a playoff team – we have lost sight of that in recent years.
Without further ado, the Win/Loss Project aims to give “wins” to ANY player – not just a pitcher like in standard baseball scorekeeping – with the most WPA in a team win. “Losses,” therefore, are handed to ANY player with the most reduced WPA in a team loss.
Below are the standings for each of MLB’s 12 playoff teams for the 2024 season (with bonus inclusion for the on-the-bubble Arizona Diamondbacks eliminated on the final Monday of the regular season). You’ll find individual “wins” as its own category, especially worthwhile for anyone like myself who has not thought about pitcher wins in at least a decade. More significantly, however, should be the “win/loss differential” statistic; in its ideal and intended use case, you can stack that number directly against WAR to measure individual player value in a different way. (Example, Aaron Judge is an 11 WAR player and a 9 WPA W/L player.)
NEW YORK YANKEES (94-68)
TOP 5, WINS
- Aaron Judge: 12
- Carlos Rodon: 9
- Juan Soto: 8
- Nestor Cortes: 8
- Luis Gil: 7
TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- Aaron Judge: +9
- Juan Soto: +7
- Ian Hamilton: +4
- Luis Gil: +3
- Alex Verdugo: +3
- Austin Wells: +3
BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- Marcus Stroman: -2
- Tommy Kahnle: -2
- Anthony Rizzo: -2
- Caleb Ferguson: -2
- Victor Gonzalez: -2
- Will Warren: -3
- Clay Holmes: -5
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (92-69)
TOP 5, WINS
- Jose Ramirez: 10
- David Fry: 8
- Josh Naylor: 8
- Tanner Bibee: 7
- Andres Gimenez: 6
- Emmanuel Clase: 6
- Jhonkensy Noel: 6
TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- David Fry: +8
- Jose Ramirez: +7
- Josh Naylor: +6
- Emmanuel Clase: +6
- Jhonkensy Noel: +6
BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- Logan Allen: -3
- Xzavion Curry: -3
- Gavin Williams: -4
- Scott Barlow: -4
- Nick Sandlin: -5
- Carlos Carrasco: -7
HOUSTON ASTROS (88-73)
TOP 5, WINS
- Framber Valdez: 12
- Hunter Brown: 11
- Ronel Blanco: 9
- Yordan Alvarez: 8
- Alex Bregman: 7
TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- Framber Valdez: +9
- Hunter Brown: +5
- Ronel Blanco: +5
- Yordan Alvarez: +5
- Alex Bregman: +5
BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- Justin Verlander: -2
- Kyle Tucker: -2
- JP France: -2
- Rafael Montero: -2
- Tayler Scott: -3
- Ryan Pressly: -3
- Spencer Arrighetti: -4
- Bryan Abreu: -4
BALTIMORE ORIOLES (91-71)
TOP 5, WINS
- Anthony Santander: 10
- Gunnar Henderson: 7
- Albert Suarez: 7
- Ryan Mountcastle: 6
- Cole Irvin: 6
TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- Anthony Santander: +7
- Gunnar Henderson: +6
- Adley Rutschman: +4
- Cedric Mullins: +4
- Ryan Mountcastle: +3
- Heston Kjerstad: +3
- Zach Eflin: +3
- Ryan O’Hearn: +3
BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- Yennier Cano: -2
- Cionel Perez: -2
- Tyler Wells: -2
- Trevor Rogers: -2
- Cade Povich: -3
- Keegan Akin: -4
- Dean Kremer: -5
- Craig Kimbrel: -5
KANSAS CITY ROYALS (86-76)
TOP 5, WINS
- Seth Lugo: 11
- Bobby Witt Jr: 9
- Sal Perez: 8
- Brady Singer: 8
- Michael Wacha: 7
- Cole Ragans: 7
TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- Bobby Witt Jr: +8
- Seth Lugo: +6
- Sal Perez: +4
- Michael Wacha: +4
- Adam Frazier: +4
BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- Alec Marsh: -3
- Sam Long: -3
- Will Smith: -3
- Angel Zerpa: -3
- Chris Stratton: -4
- James McArthur: -6
DETROIT TIGERS (86-76)
TOP 5, WINS
- Tarik Skubal: 13
- Wenceel Perez: 6
- Colt Keith: 6
- Riley Greene: 4
- Matt Vierling: 4
- Beau Brieske: 4
- Keider Montero: 4
TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- Tarik Skubal: +11
- Wenceel Perez: +5
- Colt Keith: +4
- Matt Vierling: +3
- Andy Ibanez: +3
BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- Reese Olson: -2
- Will Vest: -2
- Joey Wentz: -2
- Andrew Chafin: -3
- Alex Faedo: -4
- Shelby Miller: -5
- Kenta Maeda: -6
LOS ANGELES DODGERS (98-64)
TOP 5, WINS
- Shohei Ohtani: 11
- Teoscar Hernandez: 10
- Gavin Stone: 7
- Will Smith: 7
- Freddie Freeman: 5
- James Paxton: 5
- Max Muncy: 5
- Mookie Betts: 5
- Tyler Glasnow: 5
- Kike Hernandez: 5
TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- Shohei Ohtani: +10
- Teoscar Hernandez: +8
- Will Smith: +6
- Freddie Freeman: +4
- Max Muncy: +4
- Kike Hernandez: +4
BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- Walker Buehler: -3
- Daniel Hudson: -3
- Michael Grove: -3
- Yohan Ramirez: -3
- Bobby Miller: -4
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (95-67)
TOP 5, WINS
- Zack Wheeler: 11
- Ranger Suarez: 9
- Aaron Nola: 7
- Christopher Sanchez: 7
- Alec Bohm: 7
TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- Zack Wheeler: +7
- Alec Bohm: +7
- Kyle Schwarber: +5
- Christopher Sanchez: +4
- Ranger Suarez: +3
- Nick Castellanos: +3
BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- Seranthony Dominguez: -1
- Connor Brogdon: -1
- Jose Ruiz: -1
- Johan Rojas: -1
- Seth Johnson: -1
- Michael Mercado: -2
- Jeff Hoffman: -3
- Taijuan Walker : -6
MILWAUKEE BREWERS (93-69)
TOP 5, WINS
- Willy Adames: 9
- William Contreras: 8
- Rhys Hoskins: 8
- Jackson Chourio: 7
- Tobias Myers: 7
TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- William Contreras: +6
- Jackson Chourio: +6
- Tobias Myers: +6
- Rhys Hoskins: +5
- Willy Adames: +3
- Christian Yelich: +3
- Blake Perkins: +3
- Sal Frelick: +3
BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- Joe Ross: -2
- Joel Payamps: -2
- Carlos Rodriguez: -2
- Brice Turang: -3
- Hoby Milner: -4
- Elvis Peguero: -6
SAN DIEGO PADRES (93-69)
TOP 5, WINS
- Dylan Cease: 12
- Michael King: 10
- Jurickson Profar: 8
- Jackson Merrill: 8
- Jake Cronenworth: 7
TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- Dylan Cease: +7
- Jackson Merrill: +7
- Jurickson Profar: +6
- Jake Cronenworth: +4
- Michael King: +3
- Fernando Tatis Jr: +3
- Kyle Higashioka: +3
BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- Matt Waldron: -2
- Randy Vasquez: -2
- Jhony Brito: -2
- Stephen Kolek : -2
- Yuki Matsui: -2
- Adam Mazur: -2
- Enyel De Los Santos: -3
- Wandy Peralta : -3
ATLANTA BRAVES (89-73)
TOP 5, WINS
- Chris Sale: 10
- Reynaldo Lopez: 8
- Max Fried: 8
- Spencer Schwellenbach: 7
- Charlie Morton: 6
- Matt Olson: 6
TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- Chris Sale: +8
- Reynaldo Lopez: +6
- Jarred Kelenic: +5
- Max Fried: +4
- Raisel Iglesias: +4
- Travis d’Arnaud: +4
BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- Pierce Johnson: -2
- Bryce Elder: -2
- Grant Holmes: -2
- Whit Merrifield: -2
- Aaron Bummer: -2
- Allan Winans: -2
- Jesse Chavez: -2
- Hurston Waldrep: -2
- Joe Jimenez: -3
NEW YORK METS (89-73)
TOP 5, WINS
- Francisco Lindor: 9
- Luis Severino: 8
- JD Martinez: 6
- Jose Quintana: 6
- Brandon Nimmo: 6
TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- Francisco Lindor: +7
- JD Martinez: +6
- Brandon Nimmo: +6
- Jeff McNeil: +4
- Pete Alonso: +4
- Francisco Alvarez: +4
BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- Huascar Brazoban: -2
- Jake Diekman: -2
- Jorge Lopez: -2
- Michael Tonkin: -2
- Reed Garrett: -3
- Christian Scott : -3
- Edwin Diaz: -5
- Adrian Houser: -6
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (89-73)
TOP 5, WINS
- Zac Gallen: 10
- Christian Walker: 7
- Brandon Pfaadt: 6
- Eugenio Suarez: 6
- Ketel Marte: 6
TOP 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- Christian Walker: +6
- Zac Gallen: +5
- Ketel Marte: +5
- Corbin Carroll: +3
- Joc Pederson: +3
- Randal Grichuk: +3
- Adrian Del Castillo: +3
- Gabriel Moreno: +3
BOTTOM 5, WIN/LOSS DIFFERENTIAL
- Ryan Thompson: -2
- Tommy Henry: -2
- Bryce Jarvis: -2
- Jordan Montgomery: -3
- Justin Martinez: -4
- Slade Cecconi: -5
For kicks, here’s how I would vote for the four major awards:
AL MVP
- Aaron Judge
- Bobby Witt Jr
- Tarik Skubal
NL MVP
- Shohei Ohtani
- Francisco Lindor
- Teoscar Hernandez
AL Cy Young
- Tarik Skubal
- Framber Valdez
- Seth Lugo
NL Cy Young
- Chris Sale
- Zack Wheeler
- Dylan Cease
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