I’m going to share two mock drafts this week leading into the draft. In this version, I am drafting based on what I would do in each spot. I’ll focus more on the players and my evaluations of them here, with the other mock draft flat out guessing what I think will happen based on team fit and expectations.
- Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
I really tried hard to go into this scouting cycle with a mentally clean slate, meaning that I watched Trevor Lawrence without the “chosen one” narrative that’s been on display for the last three years in the back of my mind. If anything, my unintentional bias could have been a bit negatively skewed since his last college game against Ohio State was far from his best performance. With all of that said, Lawrence came out of this with just about the highest grade I can give a quarterback. He was excellent for all three years at Clemson, consistently displaying his otherworldly talent and making incremental improvements each year. On top of that, his supporting cast at Clemson got significantly worse each year and I never felt that Clemson built the proper offensive scheme for Lawrence – but he just kept winning anyway. His arm talent is special, he runs well, and his processing is off the charts. Lawrence can trust his arm a little bit too much at times, and it is a scary combination when a skinny QB goes to an unstable situation by nature of the draft, but the hype around Lawrence is totally justified. He’s what you dream of picking first overall.
- New York Jets – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
If Lawrence is the cleanest QB prospect in this draft, then Wilson is the most tantalizing. By my estimation, Wilson was the best quarterback in the country in 2020 with his ability to attack downfield while remaining incredibly efficient. His play style is built for the highlight reel, yet in watching all of his games I was amazed by the frequency Wilson made jaw-dropping throws all over the field. While it is true that Wilson was afforded plenty of time behind BYU’s offensive line and that he faced an inconsistent strength of schedule, that does not provide the explanation on how Wilson truly is able to throw any receiver open (BYU had some slow ones!) anywhere on the field. Wilson shares the same concern as Lawrence with his skinnier frame, and the biggest on-field knock on Wilson is that he can be too quick to break the pocket to play out of structure. Still, I’m not too worried about it. His feet are so quick navigating the pocket and he keeps his head up while doing it. He officially weighed in at 215 pounds; on the smaller side, sure, but not unheard of. Physically, he looks so much like Aaron Rodgers when he came into the league. Speaking of Rodgers, that’s the type of realistic ceiling that we’re talking about with Wilson, and with a floor that I would contend is still a decent starting quarterback.
- San Francisco 49ers – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
Ok, I’m cheating on the exercise a bit here. Trey Lance is ranked above Fields on my board, and I do prefer Lance as a prospect to Fields. However, Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers present such a specific instance of a particular scheme matched with Super Bowl readiness that I see this as a coin flip decision between the two QBs, so I’ll lean in the direction of the one that I actually see them taking. The biggest selling point for Fields is that he is the most accurate passer in this class, whether standing still in the pocket or on the run. He is absolutely dynamite to the intermediate level of the field, which defines the best passing attacks across the NFL. Fields pairs that up with good arm strength, mobility, and toughness – so why has he become such a polarizing prospect with those traits and elite college production? Ohio State does run an offense with long-developing and receiver-friendly routes that can make Fields’ processing look worse than it is, but the truth of the matter is that Fields has troubling pocket tendencies and has been tripped up by different defensive looks from good opponents. There is no hiding from his performance against Northwestern, which was easily the worst game played among the Big 5 QB prospects in 2020. (The Indiana game wasn’t much better.) Now, there is laziness and some uglier factors at play when pundits chalk up Fields as a quarterback who can’t read the field. While I do have reservations about Fields, he is still a surefire lottery pick talent and potentially much more if he can consistently play like he did against Clemson.
- *TRADE* Minnesota Vikings – Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
Fake trades!!! (This is the only one I will project.) There is a high likelihood that a team will trade into the Top 10 for a quarterback(s) that slips out of the first three picks, and the Falcons should want to move out of this spot with how incongruent their immediate team needs are with the high end of this prospect pool. That said, they should still want to leave this draft with a blue-chip prospect, so they probably would only entertain moving back 10 or so spots. Though not commonly discussed as a trade-up option, I have the Vikings as the winning bidders – and not just because Lance is a Minnesota kid. It has become apparently clear that the Vikings have a harsh limit on their team upside with Kirk Cousins’ contract, so instead of letting it expire and then bottoming out, they proactively nab the QB who could take them to places that Cousins has not and cannot. (If the Vikings situation sounds similar to you to the Falcons situation, I get that, but I personally prefer Matt Ryan to Cousins and think the Falcons could be good with him in the next 1-3 years. Plus they are the ones getting draft capital in this scenario.)
I am all-in on Lance being the real deal. He has the strongest arm in this draft – true “60 yard flick of the wrist” type of stuff. While comparably fast to Fields, Lance is the clear best runner of the QB prospects in this draft too with his bulk and shiftiness. The main thing though is that Lance’s poise is so impressive for his age (20 years old) and so much better than he gets credit for. Outside of Lawrence and maybe Mac Jones, nobody was entrusted to do more pre-play, line of scrimmage stuff than Lance in NDSU’s pro style offense. There is plenty of tape of him calling out coverages and changing protections before the snap, and don’t let anyone fool you that this is somehow less impressive because he played in the FCS. I do agree that Lance could stand to sit a year, but not necessarily because he couldn’t mentally handle starting in the NFL yet. I see it as more of a Malcolm Gladwell 10,000 hours thing where Lance just literally hasn’t thrown enough footballs yet with his age and NDSU’s run-heavy offense. With more experience, I think his accuracy will improve and Lance could be an All-Pro level quarterback.
- Cincinnati Bengals – Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
Sewell is my top non-QB in the entire draft class, and the Bengals should be honored if they have the chance to take him as Joe Burrow’s future blindside protector with the fifth pick in the draft. Sewell opted out of the 2020 season, but he was the best offensive lineman in the country as a true sophomore in 2019 in front of Justin Herbert. What is scarier? The fact that Sewell did not allow a sack the entire season when he was probably even better as a run blocker? The fact that Sewell still has a lot of room for improvement with his technique? Or the fact that he played that entire season at 19 years old? Sewell will STILL be 20 years old by Week 1 of the 2021 regular season, and he should plug in as a good left tackle right away with All-Pro potential while still on his rookie contract.
- Miami Dolphins – DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
The Dolphins obviously traded back into the Top 10 to leave this draft with an elite weapon, and in this scenario they leave with Tua Tagovailoa’s favorite college receiver. No, that is not a misprint: Smith was the best receiver on a 2019 Crimson Tide team that included first-round picks Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs. Smith is an underrated athlete who thrives on the outside in the X receiver role, consistently working back to the ball as possibly the top “quarterback’s best friend” prospect ever. He also has the best catch radius of the top WR prospects in this draft, catching anything near him and over anybody with an uncanny ability to high-point the ball as if he was a half-foot taller than he actually is. Look, DeVonta weighing 170 pounds isn’t a good thing. It would basically be him and Marvin Harrison as the only #1 receivers to thrive in the NFL at that weight. But guess what? Not a lot of wide receivers won the Heisman Trophy either. Smith constantly mixed it up with bigger defenders and shook off big hits in the SEC, and I haven’t seen any actual evidence to support that he won’t do the same in the NFL.
- Detroit Lions – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
I push back on the claims that Chase is in the Calvin Johnson/Julio Jones class of receiver prospects. He quite simply isn’t as big as those guys, and I have slight concern that Chase could be immediately humbled by his “bully ball” style of play not working as well in the NFL. The optimal word there is “slight” though, because Chase is a badass and a freak athlete in his own right. He is a one-year wonder, but in that one year he was arguably better than teammate Justin Jefferson and then he backed up his athleticism by blowing the doors off his Pro Day. Chase is an elite downfield separator who claws for every ball thrown his way, and he should develop into a great YAC guy as he continues to progress with his routes and timing. He just turned 21 last month.
- Carolina Panthers – Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
I’m not sure what is more bleak: the recent history of first-round tight ends or the recent history of Florida as an NFL pipeline. The fact that Pitts is in the center of that Venn diagram yet still finds himself in the Top 10 of this mock draft speaks to his rare skill set. While he can admirably run routes split outside or in the slot, don’t let all of the pre-draft takes turn him into something that he is not: Kyle Pitts is a tight end. And that’s a good thing! Pitts improved by leaps and bounds as an inline blocker from his sophomore year to his junior year, and also still only 20 years old with around 10-15 pounds to gain, he should only get better in that department. Pitts is excellent at breaking off the line while using his bend – he looks like a defensive end and played the position in high school – to quickly match himself up against linebackers that don’t stand a chance covering him. Pitts has the longest wingspan I have ever seen and uses every inch of it to his advantage. The man vacuums footballs – he made some catches that looked D.O.A. out of the quarterback’s hand. I am not positive what Pitts’ NFL future holds in store, and I don’t necessarily see the non-existence of an accurate player comparison for him as a good thing. I would be surprised if Pitts has a Travis Kelce type of effect; he only averaged 4.5 receptions per game across his two full college seasons. But if healthy, Pitts should block well while routinely converting third downs and scoring 10+ touchdowns per season, and there would be massive value in that.
- Denver Broncos – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB/S, Notre Dame
Owusu-Koramoah might be the most electric prospect in the entire draft. JOK flies around the field with some of the best closing speed you have seen since Troy Polamalu. He is instinctive as hell and can set the tone with his hitting, and he does that while usually aligning in the slot covering tight ends and receivers. JOK is definitely a tweener; he has the strength to hang as an off-ball LB in a traditional base but I think he would be best as a rangy strong safety. His play style can be a little too chaotic at times, but in Vic Fangio’s defense with multiple good defensive staples already in place his playmaking could be on full display.
- Dallas Cowboys – Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
I am going out on a ledge with this one and my evaluation as Newsome as the best cornerback prospect in this draft. Outside of Trevor Lawrence, there isn’t another prospect where I took note of less flaws. Newsome does have an injury history, though nothing there is recurring. He doesn’t have much tape in press coverage but besides that, like I guess I wish he converted more of his pass breakups into interceptions? Newsome is scheme versatile, extremely quick with good physicality, and is constantly around the ball while traveling with the other teams’ top receivers. There wasn’t any point of his (admittedly limited) 2020 season where he looked overmatched, and get this: he is also 20 years old! Newsome’s Pro Day put people on notice for his natural explosiveness and athleticism. The adjustment curve for rookie cornerbacks can be steep, but I see Newsome as a Pro Bowl caliber pro down the road.
- New York Giants – Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia
I disagree with the narrative that the EDGE class in this draft is subpar, and a big reason behind that is that I see Ojulari as a legit EDGE1 prospect. He had excellent production in the SEC and against some of the best tackles in the country, with 9.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles in 10 games with a ton of pressure not reflected in those stats. And guess how old he was doing that? 20 years old! I’m aware that these below-drinking-age prospects are becoming a running joke in this blog, but in Ojulari’s case I find it especially important. Ojulari’s hand usage and arsenal of pass rush moves would be advanced for a redshirt senior, let alone a redshirt sophomore. He also has already put on 10 pounds from his 2020 playing weight, which at 240 pounds presented his biggest draft concern, and I think he can tack on 5-10 more pounds without losing his burst and bend. Ojulari has freaky arm length and play strength way better than his weight would suggest. Just watch the Alabama game: forget pancakes, those monsters barely even budged him. Ojulari is a pure three-down OLB in a 3-4 scheme, with a predictable future of setting a good edge with respectable flat coverage all while posting 8-12 sacks annually with near league-leading pressure rates.
- Philadelphia Eagles – Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
After three years of starting in Nick Saban’s defense, including a 2020 season where he might have been the best defensive player in the country, Surtain enters this draft as arguably its safest prospect. He has great size to go along with explosive measurables, on top of having All-Pro cornerback play born and raised into him. In a position that is generally brutal on rookies, Surtain should admirably hold down his side of the field from Week 1. (He can play the slot too.) There is obvious comfort for his drafting team in this level of safety and NFL readiness, but I also interpret that as somewhat of a weakness for Surtain too. He leaves college as only a true junior, but I’m not sure how much room left for growth there is for Surtain. Even his relatively average 40 time in this workout cycle of 4.46 seconds feels generous for Surtain – he doesn’t play all that fast. His level of physicality also too often doesn’t match up with his physical gifts. Still, Surtain is as smooth and technically sound as it gets for a cornerback prospect. Maybe he won’t be a great pro, but he definitely should be a good one.
- Los Angeles Chargers – Rashawn Slater, OT/OG, Northwestern
I find myself a tad lower on Slater than most; there might not be a prospect who benefited more from all of us just sitting around the house watching old game tape. Slater had an excellent 2019 season on a bad Northwestern team, even if his performance against Chase Young was pretty comicably overblown. Slater has proven that he can play tackle on both sides of the line with impeccable footwork and timing. He opted out of the 2020 season, and while that decision will likely turn out fine for him, it would have gone a long way to see some more footage of him locking down the blindside again on a better roster. Slater is quick and stout – he resembles Tristan Wirfs – and might mirror pass rushers better than anyone in this draft class. Still, he lacks Wirfs’ raw power and that combined with a real lack of length could be a detrimental combination. For that reason, while I generally hate projecting good offensive tackles to guards until they get a chance to play tackle, Slater really might end up more valuable at guard. I see versatile reliability as Slater’s defining quality over upside at any specific position on the line though, which would be a welcome addition for the Chargers.
- *TRADE* Atlanta Falcons – Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami
This would be a fantastic trade-down outcome for the Falcons, because Phillips has the talent and production to justify going as high as fourth overall yet Atlanta still hypothetically lands him here. Phillips’ concussion history might be the defining red flag of this NFL Draft; they were so severe during his time at UCLA that they forced him into medical retirement. There’s no getting around it being a concern, but I’m not here to pretend to be an online neurosurgeon. If the University of Miami and NFL doctors cleared him, then I am going to treat Phillips as a normal prospect. And as a normal prospect, Phillips – the former top high school recruit in the country – brings plus-plus traits to the edge. He was a terror at the U, dominating right tackles with twitchiness, length and power. Phillips is a pure pass rusher and a bit of a one-year wonder at that, but he has Jevon Kearse levels of potential to pace the league in sacks as a rookie.
- New England Patriots – Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
A few of the internet’s most famous draft boards have joined the lovefest for Bateman – maybe not as a Top 10 player like mine! – but it’s a welcome sight after feeling like I was missing something for seeing Bateman as a future WR1 when I first watched his tape back in February. Clearly I have other players, including two receivers, ranked in front of Bateman, but his elite production at Minnesota happened by nature of the traits belonging to the current top tier of NFL receivers. Bateman’s releases are intentional and consistently dominant, whether he’s patient breaking inside or blowing past cornerbacks off the line of scrimmage, and he couples up a long reach with excellent hands. Bateman’s Pro Day was…weird. I don’t buy that he’s actually a 4.39 speed guy, but he also plays much taller than 6’0 and much stronger than 190 pounds. However Bateman actually does measure out in the NFL, I’d bet that he amounts to a receiver with 100+ reception/season promise.
- Arizona Cardinals – Alijah Vera-Tucker, OG, USC
Alijah Vera-Tucker played left tackle for USC last year, and for the most part he played it quite well. (Not so much vs. Oregon and future Top 10 pick Kayvon Thibodeaux.) Still, I am directly projecting AVT to guard, and I imagine that most if not all NFL teams will do the same. He was awesome at guard as a sophomore while 2020 first rounder Austin Jackson played tackle – much more awesome than Jackson in fact. AVT isn’t particularly long or fast which is what kicks him inside, but he centers his attack with strong hands and only gets better as he moves forward into the second level of the defense. He can occasionally get knocked backwards right off the snap, but Vera-Tucker is young and has already shown improvement in balance. I foresee him continuing that improvement, possibly all the way up to an All-Pro level at guard.
- Las Vegas Raiders – Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas
Cosmi is one of my favorite players in this draft. Even as a major defender of his, I can acknowledge that the linemen in front of him and a few ranked behind him will bring their drafting teams higher levels of technical readiness in Year 1. Cosmi’s rookie year might come with its challenges for that reason, but this kid is tough as nails and freakishly athletic for the position. He showed marked improvement from his sophomore to junior year, and I would bank that he has plenty of room left for growth in the pros too if his team provides him with the proper amount of patience. I don’t even think it will take too long; Cosmi was pretty damn good in 2020 and showed up against his toughest opponents. I’m not too sure what the Raiders are doing but Cosmi could develop into a Pro Bowl tackle for them.
- Miami Dolphins – Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
I am not particularly high on Parsons, and that’s not even with consideration to his legitimately troubling character and maturity concerns. For the level of hype that Parsons is bringing into this draft, I was really surprised by how raw of a player he still is. Parsons is a great clean-up tackler when he stays patient, but far too often he finds himself overshooting gaps or taking bad angles and diving at the feet of ball carriers. He also is close to entirely untested in coverage, and the recent history of specimen linebacker prospects with coverage questions is…not good. Still, Parsons truly does bring along some of the rarest burst you’ll ever see from a linebacker, and I think Brian Flores would have a few ideas for what to do with it. Whether he’s blitzing off the edge or shooting a gap, you can blink and miss Parsons ending up in the backfield. He’s a playmaker in the mold of Devin White which naturally all front offices will covet now, but just be ready for the real chance that the complexity of the NFL overwhelms Parsons – if he can keep his head on straight enough in the first place.
- Washington Football Team – Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
Despite winning the Bednarik Award as the best defensive player in college football in 2020, Collins won’t be for everyone at a first round value strictly due to how unique of a prospect he is. Collins is a 270 pound linebacker who can hang around the line of scrimmage with his speed and bend but is much better playing off-ball as an inside linebacker. Don’t let Tulsa’s non-Power 5 status fool you; he was utterly dominant against better competition than you might expect. He has the best eyes of any linebacker that you will see coming out of college, naturally moving in step with quarterbacks without missing anything around him. At 6’5, he is constantly disrupting passing lanes too. Collins is pretty stiff and his upright play style can work against him versus the run, but he’s a good tackler with good pursuit. Still, instincts and coverage ability are the story with Collins. The Football Team doesn’t need more help getting after quarterbacks, and Collins would regularly find himself in the right place at the right time to capitalize on pressure-forced QB mistakes.
- Chicago Bears – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
Waddle will in all likelihood get picked higher than this, yet this is basically the highest that I would consider drafting him. I have a late first-round grade on Waddle, but his speed and acceleration could wake up a Bears offense that has been asleep for years and only addressed so far this offseason by adding…Andy Dalton. Love or hate Waddle as a prospect, there is no doubt that the kid can absolutely fly. You have to respect his speed with deep coverage whenever he is on the field, and once he has the ball in his hands…watch out. That’s the thing, though. I think people are underestimating how difficult it might be to regularly get the ball into Waddle’s hands. He can sell double moves and run underneath routes, but Waddle has a ways to go in understanding the nuances of the receiver position. He is also really undersized, coming off a major injury, and it should not be ignored that he was the odd man out on the 2019 Alabama team with a healthy DeVonta/Jeudy/Ruggs corps – who are all about the same age as Waddle. Using a first round pick on Waddle is a major dice roll, with a floor about as low as it gets and the realistic ceiling of a 1,000 yard deep threat/slot hybrid who can also return kicks and punts.
- Indianapolis Colts – Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas
Ossai probably ends up as a Round 2 player, but I’m a fan of his and he’s the type of player that Indy could covet – and I mean that as a huge compliment. Ossai was very good as a sophomore at Texas as an off-ball linebacker – he intercepted Joe Burrow and his bowl game performance against Utah was the stuff of legend. At 6’4 and 255 pounds with long arms he switched positions to EDGE, and guess what? He was very good there too, as in AP All-American good. Ossai might be the most explosive rusher in this draft, constantly fighting his way into the backfield whether it’s defending the pass or run. He plays with one of the best motors in this draft, and his obsession with the game is apparent just watching his tape. He still has a ways to go towards becoming a consistent pass rusher. He could stand to play with more leverage and develop some moves – Teven Jenkins rudely reminded him of that on a few plays. But Ossai also straight up beat Jenkins, a likely first rounder, on multiple reps too, including a game-icing overtime sack against Oklahoma State. Considering he did that at 20 years old – he just turned 21 this month – and Ossai is one of the first “project” types that I’d bang the table for adding to a good roster with a 2-3 year leash for him to develop into a potential star.
- Tennessee Titans – Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
This would be a home run for the Titans, and I say that with a grade on Horn lower than the consensus. Horn could go within the Top 10 on the back of his strong true junior season in the SEC followed up by a Pro Day with a 4.39 40 and insane jumping drills. I’m not surprised by Horn’s popularity. He has the size and speed to cover anyone and the on-field evidence to back it up, whether it’s a 6’4 receiver on the outside or a 5’9 receiver in the slot. He is a pure man coverage corner, getting his hands on receivers at the split second that he is legally allowed to. (I would put money on Horn leading the NFL in flags at least once in his career.) Horn is more fast in breaks than quick to flip his hips, and you don’t have to look much past his tape covering DeVonta Smith to worry about how he currently handles NFL caliber releases. And like I mentioned, you would basically be starting from scratch with him in zone schemes. I fear that Horn is going to have real growing pains early on in the league, but if his drafting team is patient enough with him then I have faith that Horn has the competitive streak and skill set to have a long career playing on the outside.
- New York Jets – Creed Humphrey, OC, Oklahoma
Ask me if I love the idea of drafting your quarterback and center of the future in tandem? I LOVE the idea of drafting your quarterback and center of the future in tandem. There aren’t five players in this draft that I have more confidence in them blossoming into good pros over Humphrey. He spent each of the past two seasons as one of the best offensive linemen in the Big 12 snapping the ball to Jalen Hurts and Spencer Rattler, with a keen sense of positioning paired up with an appropriately nasty play style. Humphrey also might be the best athlete specific to his position in this entire draft, which his 10.0/10.0 Relative Athletic Score backs up. There is some concern about Humphrey’s susceptibility to letting strong defensive tackles get underneath him, which is possibly the biggest dealbreaker for a center, but personally I find that in the realm of nitpicking. The real question here is if taking a center with the 23rd overall pick is justified, which I would answer with “hell yes” when you are drafting a rookie quarterback and have as dismal of an interior offensive line as the Jets.
- Pittsburgh Steelers – Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
This will probably go down as my least favorite pick of this mock draft, given that Darrisaw is No. 32 on my board with two tackles ranked ahead of him still available. Still, both of those tackles (Liam Eichenberg and Teven Jenkins) have length questions that will likely keep them on the right side or kicked inside to guard. Darrisaw, on the other hand, has the textbook left tackle frame. He was a very good one at that in college, capping off his time at Virginia Tech with a dominant 2020 season from a grading perspective. Still, I’m pretty low on Darrisaw. He shouldn’t have any issue continuing to punch defenders into the dirt at will, but he was more unproven in pass protection than his high snap count would indicate in Virginia Tech’s quick release offense. He typically got by on his sheer size instead of his hands or feet, and his motor is pretty suspect. I don’t typically like drafting for immediate need, but I have never heard of the guy slated to start at left tackle for the Steelers and this aged Big Ben will need all of the time he can get.
- Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
This is another case of a player getting mocked in just about the highest slot that I would be comfortable taking him, but in Moehrig’s case I have more confidence that he’ll at least be a solid contributor. And safety, possibly the Jags’ biggest positional need after quarterback, is a rough draft group this year, with Moehrig as the fairly clear top option in my opinion (not counting Owusu-Koromoah). Moehrig was incredibly productive in his two full seasons in the Horned Frogs defense, raising his play from All- Big 12 as a sophomore to the Thorpe Award winner (nation’s best DB) as a junior. His ball skills are tremendous, consistently taking advantage of quarterbacks staring down receivers with a good knack for timely pass breakups. Moehrig, while projecting as an average athlete for a starting NFL safety, has good length and quickness, even if his habit of baiting QBs into bad decisions won’t work nearly as well in the NFL as it did in the Big 12. I have concerns for Moehrig as a tackler because of his wiry build and inconsistent angles, and he certainly won’t remind anyone of Brian Dawkins with his ferocity or Earl Thomas with his range. But in this new era of safety play where Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates are among the league’s best by being able to play in two-high zone sets or man up near the line of scrimmage, Moehrig fits that bill.
- Cleveland Browns – Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan
Paye is a good player, but a misunderstood one at that. He is commonly discussed as this raw and versatile edge rusher, but I’m pretty sure we already have a good sense of his skill set and that he is clearly a 4-3 defensive end. Paye is incredibly gifted: he placed in the top spot of Bruce Feldman’s freak list, and he made a play against Minnesota when he tackled a running back from the opposite side of the field behind the line of scrimmage on a simple outside zone run that was one of the most absurd that I witnessed in this entire film process. But if I’m being honest, I don’t think anyone would be talking about him as a project if he had a typical football backstory. The guy has been starting at Michigan since 2018, and that program has since graduated Chase Winovich and Rashan Gary into the NFL. Quite frankly, I just don’t think Paye is a very good pass rusher. He shows flashes of excellence, but too often he doesn’t have a plan off the line. Still, I have Paye as the best run defending edge in this class, and that’s not exactly a consolation prize. Paye shouldn’t ever have to come off the field, and playing on a line opposite a rusher like Myles Garrett would be perfect for a player like Paye who sets a hard edge and is never knocked over.
- Baltimore Ravens – Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
As the best run blocker – non-Sewell division – in this draft, Jenkins going to Baltimore with one of their now two late first-round picks would be an awesome fit if he makes it that far. Jenkins is freaking mean, playing well beyond the whistle and injecting a real sense of attitude whenever he is on the field. Naturally there is concern when a college player has his true breakout season as a redshirt senior, but Jenkins has gotten out ahead of proving the naysayers wrong with an incredibly athletic display at his Pro Day. Jenkins is so strong and generates a lot of power with his legs – don’t be surprised when he flattens a nose tackle. But for a player of his size and strength, he ends up on the ground himself quite a bit, and his lack of length showed up as a problem at times. Maybe Jenkins could be a decent right tackle anywhere, but his best chance to reach his ceiling is clearly in a power run-heavy offense.
- New Orleans Saints – Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
Alright, here we go. The boy wonder of the draft cycle, the hype train himself: McCorkle Jones. Let’s start with the good. Jones isn’t in the conversation for the third overall pick because he won the national championship with some of the best single-season QB stats ever; it’s because he follows instruction on what to do and where to go with the football every down. He always gets the ball out on time, even when his first read isn’t immediately open or when he has to move around the pocket or take a hit. His one year leading the Tide offense lends at least some credence to the talking point that he’s the smartest QB prospect in this draft, even if I wholeheartedly reject how we ended up there and how we use certain adjectives to describe certain QB prospects. Jones displayed good short and intermediate accuracy as well.
Yeah, I’m going two paragraphs, because we really need to talk about Mac Jones. To put it bluntly with his traits, he is straight up a bad athlete with a bad body and a bad arm. It didn’t happen often in Alabama’s perfect surroundings, but the few times when something broke down and Jones had to make an athletic adjustment, he looked completely undraftable. Now, I know some of the NFL’s greatest quarterbacks thrived playing in structure, but you want to take a guy in the first round who can do something outside of it. Do we have any reason to believe Jones can throw on the run, like at all? I need to drop at least one more line on his arm too, because it is astonishing how much talk there is around Jones and how little talk there is about his noodle. He’s really gotta load it up to throw with even NFL-average zip, and his good-on-paper deep ball stats are as fluky as it gets. He’s not going to have guys having already won their go routes at 10-15 yards in the NFL, and not being able to reach the sideline won’t work in the NFL either without first round receivers bailing him out against Mississippi State and Missouri on balls underthrown by 5+ yards inside. I’ll acknowledge that Jones was a 22 year old one-year wonder and that his “unreplicable” stats were basically repeated identically by Tua in 2019, and then I’ll stop there. Clearly I have major doubts on Jones, and I don’t buy for a second that he has a high floor. It is certainly the lowest of the five likely first round QBs to me – I’m talking (on-field) Dwayne Haskins level. But still, if he makes it this far to an offensive guru like Sean Payton, then yeah I’m fine with this pick with the first paragraph here in mind.
- Green Bay Packers – Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame
Not to oversimplify or be overdramatic here, but I genuinely do think the Packers would be at Pick 32 if they took a wide receiver in the first round last year instead of a backup quarterback. Sorry, I am focusing on the players here, but I just had to sneak that in. Anyway, Eichenberg isn’t a receiver either, but this would be an excellent pick for the Packers. Notre Dame’s offensive line has led to probably the best positional NFL pipeline over the last decade, producing Quenton Nelson, Zack Martin, Ronnie Stanley and Mike McGlinchey. While Eichenberg might not reach that echelon, I would bet that he has a good enough career at least warrant mention. As a redshirt senior who has probably played more snaps and in more big games – in which he played well – than any other top tackle in this class, Eichenberg knows who he is as an offensive tackle. He makes up for his short arms and slighter frame by quickly attacking in space and locking into edge rushers. He’s deceptively strong, and while the length issue is probably too real to ignore at left tackle I think he can prove people wrong by surviving at right tackle. He might not wow you, but Eichenberg is also the type of player that you don’t think about once all game, which is probably what you’re looking for with a late first-round offensive lineman.
- Buffalo Bills – Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
So, I hate running backs, and I REALLY hate first-round running backs…but man I love Travis Etienne. His acceleration is good enough to get you to stop what you are doing to watch Etienne run the football. If there is a window of daylight between the tackles, Etienne is going 0-to-60 through it in a flash. He is a willing north/south runner with home run ability, and he has already bulked up enough to assuage fears that he couldn’t take the NFL beating. Etienne’s legs are so strong, allowing him to do that thing that Alvin Kamara does where he doesn’t really make a move but defenders just bounce off him anyway. Etienne has also grown from a non-factor in the passing game (12 receptions in 15 games as a sophomore) to arguably the best receiver (588 yards in 12 games as a senior) among the backs near the top of this class. He doesn’t pack Saquon Barkley’s raw athleticism and people might notice that his yards/carry dwindled from 8.1 to 7.8 to 5.4 over his three starting seasons at Clemson, but he became a more complete running back over that time as Clemson lost its offensive mojo around him and Trevor Lawrence. So yeah, I really like Etienne – I am recommending that a team takes a running back in the first round for god’s sake.
- Baltimore Ravens – Terrace Marshall Jr, WR, LSU
I have a pretty firm second round grade on Marshall, but I also have watched 2+ years of Ravens games where Lamar Jackson doesn’t have any receiver over 6’0 to target so this would work! Marshall was a five-star recruit out of high school who posted two productive seasons at LSU, as the third option on the 2019 national championship team then as the go-to receiver last year before opting out. At 6’3, Marshall is the only tall receiver that will receive attention in the first two rounds of this draft. Marshall is only 20 years old but he already knows how to use his height to his advantage and has real spectacular catch ability. He has legit inside/outside versatility too, but I’m skeptical on how ball dominant he can be at the next level. Marshall is skinny and really does not play strong, so while he can certainly create mismatches the NFL’s best cover guys might eat him alive. Still, at a minimum I like Marshall as a gangly deep threat, and maybe with some more muscle in the right system he can evolve into a higher-volume version of one in the mold of Kenny Golladay.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
If not for concerns over a recent back surgery – not the first for Farley – then there would be zero chance of him slipping this far. It might not happen anyway, given that outside of maybe Kyle Pitts there isn’t a better size/speed combo guy with first round production in this entire draft. Farley has the look of Richard Sherman and could have actually clocked a 4.3 40 at the combine in a normal year. He is at his best when the ball is in the air, with incredible closing speed followed by a natural feel for ball tracking. Back injury aside, I didn’t see Farley as the clear-cut CB1 on tape though. Farley can too often rely on his physical gifts and get nonchalant, either losing sight of his man or letting guys get behind him to where even he can’t catch up – Chase Claypool made him pay for both. He is good in press when he gets his hands on receivers at the line, but it doesn’t happen as much as you’d like. I’m not sure what scheme fit would be best for Farley’s NFL future. He feels too gifted to not play in man, but with his back, inconsistent physicality, and a pre-play stance where he looks more like a safety than corner, maybe something zone heavy could end up better for his long-term prospects. Regardless, the Bucs have the secondary depth and roster strength to pick Farley’s upside and figure that out later.
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: Top 50 Big Board
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