The Bachelor is basically a sport now. There are different seasons, you gather with friends to watch for 2-3 hours, you complain about how many commercials there are, hell – the franchise has its own Adam Schefter in Reality Steve. And while fantasy Bachelor leagues used to be something you’d have to explain to your coworkers, now your coworkers are asking you if you want to be a part of their league. (The answer is NO, Jennifer.)

Thursday marked my favorite Internet day of the year: the public release of the contestants. This year we have 30 (!!!) girls vying for Colton Underwood’s heart and flower. (The guy is a virgin, as I’m sure even your grandparents have heard by now.) ABC used to grace us with questionnaires from each contestant that 90% of the time only told us that they like avocados and Crazy, Stupid, Love, but they were still fun and led us to believe that we knew something about these women before they stepped out of the limo. Now all we get is a tweet-length summary of each contestant and a few words on them directly from the mouth of Chris Harrison. Still, as someone who has been a fan of this franchise for over a decade and a drafter of Bachelor/Bachelorette contestants for years, I’d like to think I have a good sense of who’s a TOTAL CONTENDER and who’s a TOTAL PRETENDER solely based off pictures, ages, and occupations. (Important note: comments will not reflect my personal opinions of these women/women in general. It’s The Bachelor, so it’s about to get really superficial in here.)

I actively avoid spoilers, but all public information is fair game by me. So all we have to work with is the official cast page on ABC’s website, Chris Harrison’s Facebook livestream, and Colton’s appearance on Ellen. That’s it. I’ll go in descending order from who has zero chance of winning the final rose to who I think will get the proposal. (So to clarify, I might think a girl that I rank in the 20’s will advance a few episodes, but she’s ranked there because she won’t win.) Here we go.

NOT IN THE AGE RANGE

This is the most crucial component of Bachelor drafting. Even more so than looks. (ABC used to tell us height too, which we desperately need back.) With The Bachelorette, anyone older than the girl in power is fair game, so it makes it harder to draft. With The Bachelor, you’re pretty much toast if you’re not between 24-28. But considering that Colton is only 26, we’re going to adjust our scale to 23-27. I’ll allow for the occasional exception to this rule (don’t make me remind you that 36 year-old Arie seriously considered 22 year-old Bekah), but this is pretty much gospel.

 

30. Elyse, 31, Alaska

Let me get this straight: Elyse has a negative percent chance of winning. Being 31 on The Bachelor is like being 93 on Hinge. Colton also has an obvious type, and “redheaded Alaskan” ain’t it. But she’s a lock to advance past Night One. Chris Harrison says that she “becomes the mom of the group.” In case I needed to remind you that 31 is ancient in this world.

 

29. Tracy, 31, Los Angeles

31 and apparently the center of drama on Night One. AKA, she’s gonna get trashed, sent home, and then bawl her eyes out because she can never find love.

 

28. Angelique, 28, New Jersey

The reveal of the contestants via Facebook Live is actually pretty fun, because it allows Chris Harrison to go off script for once. But the downside is that he inadvertently let a few minor details slip. One of them is that Angelique is 99% a goner on Night One.

 

27. Nina, 30, Raleigh

Nina is 30, originally from Croatia, and “fled the conflict there amidst bullets and bombs.” Colton is 26, from Illinois, and likes puppies. This isn’t going to work out.

 

26. Heather, 22, California

Heather is going to be a main character this season. Apparently she has never kissed a boy before…you think the producers are going to bludgeon that joke to death or just casually let it go? But Heather will not win. SHE IS TWENTY-TWO YEARS OLD. I can already tell you that my favorite moment of the season will be when a bunch of 23 year-olds lecture Heather about immaturity.

 

25. Alex B, 29, Vancouver

In other seasons, Alex B would potentially rank fairly high. But Colton isn’t proposing to someone three years his elder regardless of how much she talks about her dogs.

 

NOT BASIC ENOUGH

The Bachelor isn’t where we turn to see progressive stuff. There is a pretty clear formula to winning this show that basically boils down to “the cuter, the blonder, the better.” I mean, two of the past three winners were 25 year-old blonde girls named Lauren B who clearly came from wealthy upbringings. Now that’s not to say that brunettes or girls with more originality don’t stand a chance. But considering that half of the contestant pool this year is 23 year-olds from either California or SEC country, let’s just say it’s definitely a benefit if she uses “like” five times per sentence.

 

24. Revian, 24, California

Despite having a name that rhymes with elitist water, Revian does not meet our criteria.

 

23. Tahjzuan, 25, Colorado

Last season there were FOUR contestants named Lauren. Tahjzuan is not winning this show.

 

22. Kirpa, 26, California

Neither is Kirpa.

 

21. Onyeka, 24, Dallas

Nor Onyeka.

 

20. Alex D, 23, Boston

This is one area where I’m pretty sure I differ from the majority of Bachelor Nation: I don’t find the fake job titles amusing whatsoever. Fortunately we don’t have as many this year as we usually do, but we still have Alex D who works as a “sloth.” And she dresses up as a sloth on Night One, because apparently the costumed contestant is something we need every season now. (Even though they never do well.) And she’s a Red Sox fan. I will be fervently rooting against Alex D this season.

 

19. Erika, 25, California

Self-described as “The Nut,” I’m annoyed by Erika already. I’m going to need her sent home ASAP. Note to all blonde Californians going on The Bachelor: you can just not say anything and advance very, very far on this show. Do less, Erika.

 

18. Courtney, 23, Atlanta

Every season, we have a contestant who is way too good for this show yet doesn’t make it very far. I’m banking on that being Courtney this go-around. Courtney is an attractive, family-oriented 23 year-old originally from Germany who now runs her own catering business. Trust us, Courtney. When Colton inevitably doesn’t pick you, it will be the biggest blessing in disguise.

 

17. Laura, 26, Dallas

Black hair?!?! An accountant?!?! Um, are you lost sweetheart?!?!

 

16. Nicole, 25, Miami

Chris Harrison made it seem like Nicole is a factor this season, which surprised me. But I’m going to stick to my guns here and declare that Nicole is not basic enough to win The Bachelor. Prediction though: she becomes a superstar in Bachelor in Paradise.

 

THE VILLAIN

We’ve seen villains win this show and we’ve seen villains only last two episodes. Who knows what her fate will be this time around, but you know that I will be rooting for her.

 

15. Catherine, 26, Florida

I am already captivated by Catherine. She’s magnificent. You could tell that she’s going to be the villain of the season just by her headshot, and all of the marketing has already confirmed as much. Chris Harrison said that she probably broke the record for the most “can I steal you’s?” on Night One. And then add in the fact that she’s a DJ FROM FORT LAUDERDALE. This is Jason Mendoza’s dream woman. The Joker. Cruella de Vil. Hannibal Lecter. Regina George. Catherine.

 

WILD CARDS

These women could either play themselves out of the competition on Night One or they could go on to win it all. Either I can’t get a good read on them, or they’re just plain crazy.

 

14. Sydney, 27, New York

The first of the three women who appeared on Ellen that I’ve mentioned so far, Sydney just doesn’t stand out in any way to me. She also completely butchered her pickup line to Colton, which makes it a lot less surprising that she’s never had a boyfriend before. I’d give her crap for quitting her job to finish like twelfth on this show, but she’ll 100% make more money as a Flat Tummy Tea sponsor than as a NBA dancer.

 

13. Devin, 23, Oregon

Devin seems cool and is definitely hot, but I just don’t see it happening. She’ll probably be the one to bring a football to the mansion and pull the ol’ “no way, I like sports too!”

 

12. Cassie, 23, California

I am SO confident that Cassie will be the one to make it pretty far and then the audience simultaneously says to themselves, “wait, has that girl spoken a single word this entire season?”

 

11. Jane, 26, Los Angeles

More than any other contestant this season, I’m having an impossible time pegging Jane. Her real name is Adrianne but she goes by Jane. That’s like me telling people to call me Daniel. Just can’t trust someone like that.

 

10. Erin, 28, Texas

Erin has a trillion red flags. She’s 28. Her job title is “Cinderella.” She mentions her love of pumpkin spice lattes in her bio. The only thing is…she’s super hot. I’m not sure what will win out with Colton. (The hotness will, who am I kidding.)

 

9. Tayshia, 28, California

Tayshia also has a lot going against her right out of the gate. She’s 28 too, and a black contestant has never won The Bachelor or The Bachelorette. But considering that she’s gorgeous and possibly the most impressive woman in the group, none of that could matter. Here’s to hoping that this is the season where things change! (It won’t be.)

 

8. Demi, 23, Texas

RUN AWAY, COLTON! RUN AWAY AS FAST AS YOU CAN!!! I get some major Isla Fisher in Wedding Crashers vibes with Demi. Chris Harrison basically confirmed that she’s totally off the wall. Is she going to be fun to watch? Definitely. Could she advance really far in this show? You bet. Might Colton be afraid of her by the end of the show? Absolutely. “Don’t ever leave me! Because I’d find you!”

 

CONTENDERS

Any of these women could realistically win the show, and each of them stands a solid chance to make it to Hometown Dates and Fantasy Suites. Where I guess this season they’ll just…watch Netflix and maybe do some hand stuff? God, why couldn’t they have just picked a guy who has had sex before?

 

7. Hannah B, 23, Alabama

Hannah’s entire bio is about Alabama. She’s Miss Alabama 2018, she went to the University of Alabama, she never misses an Alabama football game…you get the point. We’re all going to be diehard Auburn fans by the end of this season because of Hannah B. But she’s 23, hot, and blonde, so she’ll do well.

 

6. Caitlin, 25, Toronto

Chris Harrison didn’t seem too enthused about Caitlin during the livestream, which is odd because she’s stunning, successful, Canadian (they do VERY well in this franchise), and the perfect Bachelor age of 25. I’m going to guess that Chris Harrison was just up to his sneaky old tricks and that Caitlin will make it far. If she doesn’t, well, then she should expect to hear from every male Bachelor fan on Twitter.

 

5. Katie, 26, California

I promise you that Katie will be on the show for most of the season. The pretty, bubbly, California girl always does well. She came off as really basic but really fun on her Ellen appearance, and Chris Harrison said that she “changes the course of the entire season.” The first “I love you,” perhaps? I’d guess that we get to see Katie’s hometown, but I’d be surprised if she wins due to shitty reasons that I’ve already mentioned.

 

4. Caelynn, 23, Charlotte

Caelynn has the genuinely impressive point on her resume of being the 2018 Miss America runner-up (collect $10 from Community Chest)…which I think has to mean that she beat Hannah B in that competition? Ipso facto, I neeeeeeeeeed that drama. But anyway, she’s really hot and will go really far. If she gets eliminated, then expect one of the “I need a moment, get the cameras away from me” breakups. If she wins, well, then Colton and Caelynn will probably name their kids something like Jax and Paisley.

 

3. Hannah G, 23, Birmingham

Chris Harrison’s worst moment of the livestream happened here, so if you want to go into this season totally blind then you might want to skip to the next contestant. *Gives readers time to scroll* I’m 95% sure he revealed that Hannah G wins the first impression rose. C’mon, Chris! That’s a major prop bet that we’re talking about! Honestly, Hannah G sounds like she kinda sucks. She loves glamping and is a “Content Creator,” which just means that she’s better at picking Instagram filters than I am. But she’s beautiful, and if my first impression rose hypothesis is correct, then history tells us she will advance very far…or win the show.

 

2. Annie, 23, New York

Annie is my personal favorite, and I’m scared that Colton will feel the same way. She murdered her Ellen appearance, making the best impression of the three girls by a mile. She’s 23 yet successful, and she has both a farm girl and city girl thing going on. If she doesn’t win the show, then she’s a prime Bachelorette candidate. (Yes, I am aware that I’m getting completely ahead of myself.)

 

THE FAVORITE

My prediction to win the final rose. I don’t have the best record on this subject, but I have a feeling that this is the year!!!

 

1. Bri, 24, Los Angeles

I mean…scroll through these 30 women and tell me with a straight face that Bri doesn’t stand out. She looks like all of the former Bachelor winners meshed into one person for god’s sake. Models historically don’t do well on this show, but Bri’s bio and Chris Harrison both went out of their way to let us know that Bri is more than just a pretty face! She’s the only contestant who managed to screw up her short bio – she wants us all to know that her biggest dating fear is farting too loudly. That’s such a painfully Jennifer Lawrence thing to say, but at least it tells us that Bri has a personality. We’ll take it, and Colton probably will too.

 

Follow me on Twitter @Real_Peej as I live tweet all of The Bachelor drama starting Monday, January 7.