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Excuse Me, Baseball. May I Please Heat Up The Stove?

Wind chills are hovering around -20 degrees. New calendars are up on the walls. Maesters at The Citadel have released the white ravens. In other words, winter is officially here. Now most people probably look forward to spending these dark and cold nights cuddled up by the fireplace. Pshhh. You can find me gyrating next to the MLB Hot Stove. You love the smell of roasting chestnuts and the sound of Christmas carols? That’s nice, but give me technical articles on luxury tax thresholds and quotes of Scott Boras telling teams “YOU WON’T HEAR FROM ME AGAIN UNTIL THAT EIGHTH YEAR IS ON THE TABLE.”

In all seriousness, MLB free agency is usually a glorious shitshow. Every time you refresh Twitter you see that another player just signed for more money than the GDP of some small African nations. GMs are reminded after issuing contracts that they just agreed to pay a player $25mil in his age 42 season. It’s chaos and it’s beautiful…but it’s just not going down that way this offseason. Baseball has been feeling the early effects of the bomb cyclone. The market has frozen over. Usually most of the marquee free agents ink massive deals before the New Year, but right now only 2-3 of the dozen or so best free agents have signed. All fans are bored, and dumb fans are starting to worry that this is some sort of sign for the future of baseball. (It’s not…we are going to see teams spend ungodly amounts of money next offseason.) But what it is a sign of is that teams are getting smarter. There is simply no need to rush into a contract that has the potential to cripple the future operations of a franchise. The players surely understand that, but at the same time the best free agents want the same kind of money that they’ve seen their peers rake in over the past few offseasons. Deals will be signed, but it seems like both sides could use a little bit of a push. Allow me to Henry Clay the shit outta this situation and strike some compromises.

Listed below are the ten biggest-named members of the remaining free agent class, ranked in order of appeal. I pick what I view as the perfect destination for each player given his current/future value and the team’s outlook, and then I come up with a contract that seems agreeable for both sides. But in all likelihood, most of these players will probably get overpaid and will fairly follow that money to whichever team offers it, regardless of fit. So in addition to a section on where each of these free agents should sign, I’ll include one on where I think each of them will sign. Here goes nothing:

  1. Yu Darvish

darvish

I’ll keep this simple: Darvish is the best long-term asset in this market. While JD could produce the biggest immediate impact of the group, Yu is the clear-cut guy I’d most want locked up for six or seven years. Yes, I know that he was horrendous in both of his World Series starts. I don’t know if he was tipping pitches, exhausted, or just nervous, but whatever team lands Darvish should be beyond thankful for that primetime meltdown. His price point has dropped drastically, and writing off his chances of becoming a “big game pitcher” because of two bad games is almost as absurd as the “big game pitcher” label itself. Regular season performance provides us with the best idea of a player’s value, and few starters have been as consistently good as Darvish since his debut in 2012. He had a solid 2017 in his first full season back from Tommy John with 209 strikeouts and a 3.86 ERA, with fielding-independent numbers that are even better. And the crazy thing is…it was probably the worst season of Darvish’s career. But considering his velocity is as high as ever, his K/9 rate finished over 10.0 for the fifth straight season, and he finished in the Top 20 in baseball in soft contact induced, there is absolutely no reason to believe there is a dropoff for Yu coming anytime soon. In fact, I’d argue that his 2017 numbers are probably the worst you’ll see out of him for the next few seasons. In the right conditions, Darvish could return to his 2013 form and safely solidify himself as one of the ten best starters in baseball. Aces don’t hit the open market very often, and when they do, teams almost never have the chance to buy low on them.

Best Deal: 6 yrs/$150mil with the Twins

The smaller-market Twins might be hesitant to take on another huge contract right as Joe Mauer’s deal is finally coming off their books, but this opportunity is too good and makes too much sense to pass up. With their current roster, I’d be pretty shocked if Minnesota returns to the playoffs in 2018. Their bullpen is anonymous, and Ervin Santana will have a tough time duplicating his excellent 2017. But a rotation anchored by Darvish, Santana, and Jose Berrios to go along with a deep and underrated lineup is no joke. Combine the dimensions of Target Field with the Twins’ unbelievable outfield play, and Darvish would be poised to put up his best stats yet. Cy Young potential is there with this fit.

Actual Deal: 7 yrs/$175mil with the Angels

As a Darvish fan and someone who recognizes that Anaheim is where flashy free agent signings go to die, I really don’t want this to happen. It just makes too much sense. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Angels have once again decided to go “all in” this offseason. It’s a long-term play to try to keep Mike Trout around by proving their commitment to winning, but it’s likely that it eventually ends with the unintended outcome of not having enough money to pay him when his time comes (just ask Orioles fans about this strategy re: Manny Machado). Anyway, while the Angels lineup is filled with star power, they have nothing resembling a complete rotation. The thought of pairing Darvish with Shohei Ohtani is probably too enticing to pass up, so I expect the Angels to dig even deeper into their pockets. This totally won’t come back to bite them in the ass in a few years!

 

  1. JD Martinez

National League Wild Card Game - Colorado Rockies v Arizona Diamondbacks

If there’s anything about the 2017 season that I’m truly thankful for, it’s that we finally put the 2014 World Series between the Giants and Royals in the rearview mirror and started to embrace the value of power again. And when it comes to purely mashing the ball, JD is one of the five best in baseball at it. Already established as one of the premier sluggers in baseball coming into 2017, Martinez put up his best season split between the Tigers and Diamondbacks with a preposterous 45 dingers in just 119 games. For those casual fans who might not be too familiar with JD, his 2017 wasn’t just a fluke either. Among players with at least 2000 plate appearances between 2014 (his first full season) and 2017, he finished second in slugging percentage and third in isolated power (behind Trout in both, and Stanton too in ISO). So if you’re wondering why he isn’t at the top of this list, it’s because he strikes out a ton, doesn’t walk a lot, and already can’t really hold his own in the outfield.

Best Deal: 6 yrs/$150mil with the Red Sox

The Red Sox desperately need power in the middle of their lineup, especially since the already great Yankees lineup just added the best power bat in baseball. They’re also the only team that’s certainly going to shoot past the luxury tax threshold this season, so they’re going to be spending money. And guess what? JD Martinez wants A LOT of it, and he deserves it. A late bloomer, JD is already going into his age 31 season, so the last few years of this contract could potentially look really ugly. But Boston is in win-now mode, and the thought of what JD could do right now aiming for the Green Monster 81 times a year is pretty terrifying.

Actual Deal: 6 yrs/$170mil with the Red Sox

It’s going to happen. But considering this is Dave Dombrowski and Scott Boras at the opposite ends of the negotiating table, this staring contest might take weeks to call off. The Red Sox reportedly offered him a five-year deal, but it’s logical to assume that Boras wants seven. We’ll meet halfway at six years, but we’ll also throw in some extra dough because Boras pretty much always gets what he wants.

 

  1. Lorenzo Cain

lorenzo cain

Cain is one of the few players on this list that I think actually might get underpaid. He’s the best of the available former Royals, and I don’t even think it’s particularly close. Also a late bloomer, Cain is entering his age 32 season with only three pro seasons with 130+ games played under his belt. But in each of those seasons, Cain finished with a WAR above 4.0, including a ridiculous 6.5 WAR season in 2015. He finished THIRD in the AL MVP voting just three years ago! (Seriously, has there been a more undercover Top 3 MVP finish ever? Maybe Michael Brantley in 2014?) While his 2017 wasn’t as spectacular as his 2015, it was still a really good season. He hit .300, popped 15 homers, stole 26 bags, saw his walk rate rise to a career high, and once again finished as a plus centerfielder. Cain doesn’t profile as a player who should quickly drop off either. He has great speed, but he doesn’t rely on it to get on base. And while he has some power, it’s more of a complimentary tool. Cain might have to move to one of the corner outfield spots towards the end of a long-term deal, but there’s massive value here.

Best Deal: 5 yrs/$75mil with the Giants

Cain is the rare Giants’ free agent target that actually makes a ton of sense for them. (I have absolutely no clue why or when the Giants, who won three championships through homegrown development and shrewd acquisitions, decided to become reckless spenders). San Francisco’s current outfield situation is a complete disaster, and their lineup isn’t much to look at either. Cain would be an immediate steadying presence for both. Still, I have little faith that this match comes to fruition. For starters, the Giants are one of the big-market teams making a concerted push to get under the luxury tax threshold for this season, and a contract for Cain in this ballpark would makes things extremely tight. With that being said, the Giants outfield is so bad that they are locks to spend on it in some fashion. I think they’ll concentrate on corner outfield options with more power, especially since they just moved on from Denard Span who they probably view similarly to Cain. That is beyond stupid if true, but these are the present-day Giants we’re talking about.

Actual Deal: 4 yrs/$65mil with the Mets

The Wilpons from the clouds!!! Mets fans have endured years of lies from ownership that they will eventually spend big at the right time, but if there’s anything that we definitively know about them, it’s that they’re always searching for a good bargain. This deal for Cain would fit the bill, and he’d change the outlook for this team overnight. The Mets desperately need a rock at the top of the lineup, and a healthy Cespedes/Cain/Conforto outfield would rank as one of baseball’s best. Would this turn the Mets into contenders? Probably not. But the Triple C outfield would justifiably give Mets fans something to look forward to.

 

  1. Jake Arrieta

arrieta

Timing hasn’t proved to be the best friend to Jake Arrieta. He had one of the best pitching seasons ever in 2015, followed that up with great 2016 regular season and postseason, but then produced just an average 2017 in his contract year. There is still a lot to like when it comes to Arrieta. He’s still striking out about a batter per inning, generates a ton of soft contact, and hasn’t logged as many innings on his arm as most starters entering their age 32 season. But on the other hand, he has now regressed by almost every metric in back-to-back seasons, he’s become more erratic, his home run rate has skyrocketed, and his fastball velocity is down big time. I’d argue the ace potential is still there, but there’s probably an equal chance of a total collapse. Arrieta is about as polarizing as a free agent can be.

Best Deal: 4 yrs/$110mil with the Orioles

These are reportedly the exact terms that the Cubs offered Arrieta, and I am stunned that he didn’t cut off Theo Epstein to take that deal. It’s a major overpay for the direction that Jake is trending towards, but I guess Boras has actually convinced him that he’s going to collect 6 yrs/$200mil. Still, this is the hypothetical section, and I think a contract like this should’ve be more than enough to lure Arrieta back to his old stomping grounds. The second half of this deal would probably be rough on Baltimore, but their window is quickly closing. As I referenced before, all of this money, Chris Davis’s money, and Mark Trumbo’s money should’ve been piled together and offered to Manny Machado years ago, but that ship has sailed. Manny Machado will not be a Baltimore Oriole in 2019, but that doesn’t mean that Baltimore can’t make one last push to make a run with him in town. I’m of the opinion that you don’t trade players like Machado under almost any circumstances, because he is one of the elite few that can singlehandedly get a team over the hump. The Orioles offense is still good with enough talent to be great, but their rotation is so bad that the team still managed to finish seven games under .500 last year. Even Arrieta in his 2017 form could place the O’s in the Wild Card discussion. If he managed to return to his 2015-2016 form, then they could contend for a lot more. You might not think that’s possible, but there aren’t many competitors like Jake and I’m sure he’d want redemption for those ugly seasons he had the first time around in Baltimore.

Actual Deal: 5 yrs/ $125mil with the Cubs

Again, I can’t believe Arrieta is getting offers of this magnitude, but clearly the Cubs have serious interest in keeping him around. There was speculation that the Cubs were one of the teams trying to avoid paying the luxury tax, but that initial offer to Arrieta likely indicates that they’re comfortable paying it for this season. They could definitely use another starting pitcher, even with the deal they already handed out to Tyler Chatwood this offseason. With a deal like this, you couldn’t help but think that it’s partially a reward to Jake for his popularity amongst fans and direct role in delivering a championship in 2016. I subscribe to Theo Epstein being a genius, but this one would be a head-scratcher.

 

  1. Eric Hosmer

hosmer

Deep breaths, PJ. So I’m an Eric Hosmer hater, as this ranking probably indicates since most similar lists have him first or second. If you’re looking for further proof, a simple Twitter search would suffice! I think he’s arguably the most overrated player in baseball, and I legitimately believe the deal he’s about to get has the potential to be one of the worst of all time. I’m pretty sure most fans have no idea how the Royals made it to back-to-back World Series, so they just assume Hosmer is way better than he actually is. He’s an average overall player who peaked as a simply good player in 2017, yet he’s about to get paid like a superstar. I don’t even think he was the best first baseman in this free agent class. That honor belongs to Carlos Santana, who signed a 3 yr/$60mil deal that I love for the Phillies. Most “experts” think the Phillies splurged on Santana, yet they’ll stay silent once Hosmer inks a deal for 4-5 extra years and more average annual value. It all makes no sense.

So what specifically is it about Hosmer that drives me insane? Take a seat! His four Gold Glove awards are quite literally the least deserving pieces of recognition that I have ever seen in sports. Of the 19 qualified first basemen between 2015-2017, Hosmer ranks 18th in ultimate zone rating, 19th in defensive runs saved, and 19th in total defensive rating. He’s by most definitions the worst defensive everyday first baseman in baseball. (For what it’s worth, Santana checks in at 4th, 10th, and 3rd in those respective metrics.) So he must be an unreal hitter, right? Wrong! He’s played seven full seasons for the Royals, and in three of them he was objectively bad at the plate. Yes, he had a great season with the bat in 2017, hitting .318 with a .333 RISP that led to 94 RBI. But that’s pretty much his peak ability, and he still has some of the lowest walk rates and isolated power stats among first basemen over the past few years. In this “breakout season” of his, he posted a 4.1 WAR…also exactly what Lorenzo Cain just posted in an “average season” of his. As recently as 2016, Hosmer was a NEGATIVE WAR player. There’s a reason Scott Boras keeps hyping up his “intangibles” and “prestige value.” It’s because there’s not a single piece of tangible evidence he can point to that proves Hosmer’s worth.

Best Deal: 7 yrs/$140mil with the Padres

Obviously, I don’t think teams should be offering Hosmer anything remotely close to this type of contract. But it will happen, so we’ll stay realistic here. The Padres apparently made Hosmer an offer close to this, and it’s the only fit that doesn’t make me want to rip my hair out. Petco Park would be the perfect home for Hosmer, since he sprays the ball evenly to all fields and wouldn’t be expected to hit many homers. But more importantly, landing a “marquee” free agent like Hosmer could change the culture and public perception of the Padres. It would be eerily similar to when the Nationals wildly overpaid for Jayson Werth. Werth’s on-field performance didn’t live up to his contract, but his arrival turned the Nationals into a reputable free agent destination and swung their reputation around the league. Hosmer wouldn’t turn the Padres (or any team for that matter) into winners next year, but he could be the veteran clubhouse presence in a few years for a team that has a really promising farm system.

Actual Deal: 8 yrs/$170mil with the Royals

The Royals should stink next season and the few seasons after that, yet it isn’t the “Royal Way” to tear it all down and tank. They’d rather keep a fan favorite at an exorbitant price than commit to a rebuild, even though a contract like this would completely handcuff all future efforts to improve the team. But hey, at least they’ll sell more tickets and still lead in All Star Game fan voting!!!

 

  1. Todd Frazier

todd

Frazier is the last of the few whose expected contract would actually be a great value to whatever team lands him. I like the Toddfather a lot and will be hyping him up here, so I’ll start with the glaring negative: he batted .225 in 2016 and .213 in 2017. There is no nice way to slice that…it is very bad. HOWEVER, Frazier is a good-to-great player when it comes to just about all other facets of his game. Even with that dismal 2017 batting average, he posted a respectable on-base percentage of .344. And while his home run total was the lowest it’s been in four seasons, he still popped 27 of them and hit 40 as recently as 2016. So you know the patience and power are there for Frazier, but he’s also got some decent speed and is excellent at the hot corner. He was an all-around great player for the Reds in 2014 and 2015, and I guess he’s just fallen off the radar a bit after 1.5 pretty anonymous years with the White Sox and a half-season spent near the bottom of the Yankees lineup. Still just 31 years old, I think whoever gets Frazier for 2018 will be stealing him at his anticipated price point.

Best Deal: 2 yrs/$30mil with the Yankees

Frazier and the Yankees are two middle schoolers with a crush on each other who are standing on opposite ends of the dance floor when “Time Of Your Life” comes on. They want it to happen…someone just has to make the first move. I’m not sure if you’ve heard, but Frazier is from New Jersey and grew up a Yankee fan. In all seriousness, he meshed incredibly well with the team and they would love to have him back in New York. On one hand, it’s likely that Frazier will be seeking a shorter-term deal. The market for third basemen is terrible right now, and if he returns to his 2014-2015 form (entirely possible) then he will be in line for a way bigger payday in his near future. But on the other hand…

Actual Deal: 1 yr/$12mil with the Yankees

…the Yankees can’t afford Frazier at that price and would likely only entertain bringing him back for a single season. The Yanks are adamant about getting under the luxury tax threshold, and by most estimates $12mil is near the max they can offer another free agent with the current state of the roster. This deal would surely complicate their salary situation, but that’s how badly I think they’d like Frazier back. As for Todd, he’d be leaving some money on the table with this deal, but I get the feeling he’d do it to return to the Bronx and chase his first ring.

 

  1. Lance Lynn

lynn

It’s hard to find a more boring player in baseball than Lance Lynn, and I actually mostly mean that as a compliment. After five incredibly similar seasons in St. Louis, whatever team signs Lynn should know exactly what they’re getting. And considering that 2017 was Lynn’s first season back from Tommy John, that should be comforting for all of the teams targeting him. Yes, there were some minor disparities in his performance last season. His strikeout rate was down a bit and his homer rate went up more than a bit, rising so much to the point where it’s natural to assume it will come back down to earth moving forward. At the same time, his .219 average against and 1.23 WHIP both marked career bests. His velocity remained about the same and he still pretty much only throws fastballs. Lynn has the ceiling of a #3 starter and the floor of a #4 starter. There are more than a few teams out there that would kill for that kind of stability.

Best Deal: 5 yrs/$80mil with the Mariners

No team in need of starting pitching stability comes to mind before the Mariners, and we all know how much they love to stay active in the offseason. I’m usually not a fan of Seattle’s moves, but pairing Lynn with his former Cardinal teammate Mike Leake would provide them with the rotation reliability they’ve been seeking for years. If a healthy James Paxton and a somewhat effective King Felix joined them, then I’d finally concede that the team is balanced enough to make a strong push to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2001.

Actual Deal: 5 yrs/$90mil with the Brewers

A lot of teams have expressed interest in Lynn’s services, and I think the Brewers will be the one with the most sizable bid. Milwaukee surprised people with an 86-76 record last year, and now they’re looking to spend some money to build something sustainable. They’ve already added a couple of starters this offseason, but they’re more fringe rotation guys in Jhoulys Chacin and Yovani Gallardo. Lynn would sit atop their rotation until Jimmy Nelson’s return from shoulder surgery, and a Nelson/Lynn/Chase Anderson/Zach Davies/Chacin rotation definitely doesn’t suck. While I think the Brew Crew would benefit more from a more dynamic arm, Lynn is still a decent fit here. With a good pro roster and an even better farm system, the Brewers won’t be going away for a while. Lance Lynn would only help out.

 

  1. Mike Moustakas

moustakas

I’ll start with this: I don’t think Moustakas is particularly good. His free agency outlook is pretty much a less severe version of Hosmer’s. He’s going to make way too much money when he probably isn’t even the best available player at his position (I’d prefer Frazier and Zack Cozart too, if you count him). But what Moustakas has going for him is that he had his flashiest season in his contract year. He hit 38 homers out of absolutely nowhere, with a career high of 22 prior to the season. He hit 25 of those dingers in the first half too, which earned him a Home Run Derby invite that only further raised his public profile that was probably already too high from the Royals’ World Series runs. Still, it doesn’t take Sherlock Holmes to figure out that this power surge was probably a pretty big fluke. While most hitters with sudden boosts in home run totals can accredit a shift in launch angles, Moustakas elevated the ball with the same regularity that he had in previous seasons…more just happened to leave the park. Combine this with pitiful on-base percentages, rapidly declining defense, and horrific baserunning, and Moustakas is an average-at-best asset.

Best Deal: 3 yrs/$60mil with the Royals

I know I ripped on them for this philosophy when discussing Hosmer earlier, but I’d actually understand if the Royals really wanted to keep around one of the familiar faces from their recent glory days. A little bit of appeasement for the fan base is never a bad thing. If this is indeed their goal, then I’d suggest Moose as their target (well, besides Cain, but it seems like a foregone conclusion that he’s leaving). I think $20mil a year for a player who’s most famous for batting .215 during their championship run is laughable, but it’s a helluva lot better than giving Hosmer seven or eight years.

Actual Deal: 5 yrs/$80 mil with the Braves

I’m aware that this deal offers Moustakas less average annual value, but like I’ve repeatedly said: he’s not a very good player. He should be taking the longest-term offer he can get, and I think something in this range will be it. Atlanta has a ton of money to spend and could be competitive sooner than people might expect, so they’ll be a factor this offseason. Considering they’re currently pulling off the nearly impossible feat of scheduling to start a player I’ve never heard of, I’d recommend that third base is where they should choose to place their attention. (Apologies to Rio Ruiz and his .193 average). As harsh as I’ve been on Moustakas, he’s only 29, so it would be a safe bet for Atlanta to assume that he produces at his mediocre-to-average level for all five years on the deal. And considering the Braves aren’t exactly known as the most progressive team when it comes to sabermetrics, there are probably a few people in that front office salivating over Moose’s 38 longballs. I surely wouldn’t offer this deal if I were running the show in Atlanta, but honestly it kinda makes perfect sense.

 

  1. Jay Bruce

jay bruce

I pretty much feel the same about Jay Bruce as I do about Moustakas. They’re both middle-of-the-pack players. While Bruce has more consistent power, he also struggles to get on base and strikes out way more often. And while he had a commendable defensive performance in 2017, I sure as shit wouldn’t want to pencil him in to guard right field for my team for 3-4 years. After getting traded at the deadline in back-to-back seasons, Bruce is undoubtedly looking for a multiyear deal. He probably wants to play for a contender too, but I wouldn’t bank on too many of them answering his phone calls. This might develop into a “take whatever you can get” situation.

Best Deal: 3 yrs/$45mil with the Blue Jays

Bruce should absolutely be in the American League. I’d guess that within two years he’d offer his most value as a regular DH that can hold his own in the outfield. Toronto feels like the ideal fit for a few reasons. First, they are slated to start some character named Teoscar in right, so the immediate need is there. Second, there is something in that bagged milk north of the border that helps hitters meet their potentials. For god’s sake, if the Blue Jays can turn Justin Smoak into an All Star, then they can teach Jay Bruce how to finally pop 40 dingers. And while Toronto struggled last year, they had miserable luck with injuries and offensive underperformance. They could potentially contend this year with better fortune, but this is probably their final chance with Josh Donaldson likely to bounce following the season. I’d endorse them pushing the chips in one last time before tearing it all down, and Bruce seems like the best move for them.

Actual Deal: 4 yrs/$55mil with the Giants

There are rumblings of this match in the rumor mill, and I can’t reiterate enough how little sense it makes for both sides. The Giants know they were nearly the worst team in baseball last year, right? I guess that Bruce, like Evan Longoria, provides some immediate assistance, but not nearly enough to reverse the team’s 2018 general outlook or improve their future whatsoever. If Bruce actually does end up in San Francisco, I’d pretty confidently say that he’ll never hit 30 homers in a season and that he’ll fall off a defensive cliff trying to man that cavernous rightfield at AT&T Park. This would be a team that struggles mightily to reach .500 despite a Top 5 payroll. So naturally, I’m expecting the Giants to actually make this deal happen.

 

  1. Alex Cobb

MLB: San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Rays

Just about every offseason there’s a pitcher that teams obsess over, not because of the eye test or any stats. It’s because pretty much every team expresses interest and that snowballs to the point where you forget why anyone loved him in the first place. This year, that pitcher is Alex Cobb. I do not at all understand the fascination here. Sure, it’s cool that he went 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA in 2013 before a liner to the dome ended his season. But I’d prefer to focus on how he missed both the 2015 and 2016 seasons then returned with an incredibly average 2017 performance? Only four starters in all of baseball regularly allowed hard contact more often than Cobb’s 36.9% of batters faced. Two of them are strikeout machines in Robbie Ray and Chris Archer, and the others were two of 2017’s worst pitchers in Rick Porcello and Ricky Nolasco. I’m not at all suggesting that Cobb belongs in that latter group, but he certainly doesn’t belong in the same conversation as Ray or Archer either. Cobb’s 2017 strikeout rate of 17.9% is so alarmingly low that it more than offsets his impressive walk rate. It’s good to see that he was comfortably able to throw 179.1 innings…but that also marked the most he’s thrown in a single season in his career. That wouldn’t be concerning for a starter early in his career, but Cobb is already 30 years old. For the amount of money that he is bound to make, I wouldn’t want Cobb in the short-term or the long-term.

Best Deal: 4 yrs/$70mil with the Red Sox

I’ve already expressed how I think the Red Sox will spend borderline offensive amounts of money once the first major domino falls in January, and I think Cobb will be a major part of that. He has Boston ties, and he’s already spent the entirety of his career pitching in the AL East. As for the Red Sox, you know that the thought of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez batting in order is keeping them up at night, and something tells me that they don’t want Rick Porcello as the only righty in their rotation ready to face them. Ironically, Cobb reminds me a lot of Porcello. They’re both curveball-dependent and don’t really make much of an effort to miss bats. If the Red Sox could bring in Cobb and also turn him into the least deserving Cy Young winner in MLB history, then this deal would obviously be worth it. But something tells me that…um…won’t happen.

Actual Deal: 4 yrs/$70mil with the Red Sox

Yup, I think that’s actually the way it’s gonna go down. Shoutout to all the Yankee fans who are already praying that a JD/Cobb splash goes just about as well as that Hanley/Sandoval splash from a few years back.

 

 

Follow PJ on Twitter @Real_Peej

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